4 ms·

they are going to oversubscribe it. they're only slow to add users because they can't make terminals, not because they're trying to maintain an unrealistic QoS.

simondotau 5y ago
Is that an assumption on your part, or is there associated evidence? If there is, that’s something I’d really appreciate knowing.
- walrus01 5y ago
  Every residential last mile isp in the history of commerical ISPs since 1993 has been oversubscribed, the question is at which ratio, and how that technology is implemented. the problem with terrible oversubscription on geostationary consumer grade vsat services is based on the fact that raw transponder kHz on a geostationary satellite is extremely expensive. starlink appear to be taking a very different perspective since they absolutely know about the abysmal reputation of things like viasat/hughesnet/wildblue/etc in the consumer-facing ISP space, and won't ever let it go that way. because it would be a brand name killer.
  - simondotau 5y ago
    I agree it's a risk inherent to the ISP business model generally. I was asking if there was any evidence that was specific to Starlink "trying to maintain an unrealistic QoS".
  - shaklee3 5y ago
    I see your other comments and you seem very sharp, but I don't understand why you think starlink will be any different, and especially why the initial launch period is anything like a mature service. for instance, do you disagree with anything here? https://twitter.com/LionnetPierre/status/1482863459834511363?t=yTDSZDtQ9Usmc6vesJSHJg&s=19 https://twitter.com/LionnetPierre/status/1482863459834511363...
    - walrus01 5y ago
      I worked in network engineering for geostationary two way satellite for years and have been a starlink beta customer for over a year now. I also have some inside info from network engineering folks in WA state that I can't disclose here. If one fully understands the economics of geostationary it helps to better understand the tech behind starlink. I don't rule out the possibility that it goes bankrupt and ends up in a situation like the 2nd corporate incarnation of iridium, but the tech works great.
      - shaklee3 5y ago
        I also have more than a decade of experience with satellite internet, and geostationary satellites in particular. Nobody has ever said starlink will be technically impossible; the arguments from the start have been that it is not financially solvent. Temporary VC money obviously doesn't tell us whether they're going to be profitable, but I haven't seen any real analysis that shows they have anywhere near the number of subs they need to become profitable. And increasing the subs will surely decrease the quality of the service, because that's always what these satellite companies do. The fact that they just released a more expensive terminal to me means that they are trying to tackle the enterprise market where the cost per bit is significantly higher than with consumers, and those users will for sure get priority over consumers. It also means they are losing money too fast and they needed to at least have a solution that will potentially have higher returns in the short-term. I agree the tech works great for what it is, but I also don't think it's been out anywhere near long enough for people to make judgements about how well it works. I don't think we will have enough longevity data on the terminal for at least a couple more years, so it's not clear if performance will degrade or if the motor will seize due to whether. I think the users that got in now are having a great honeymoon period, but I don't think this will last, and we should not be comparing it to existing, mature services.
- shaklee3 5y ago
  musk said it https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-chip-shortage-satellite-internet-2021-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ch...
quantumduck 5y ago
This is certainly not true. You can see tons of people in different countries who literally ordered starlink a week ago getting it ahead of lots of people who preordered like a year ago because the ones who are getting quickly are likely in under utilized cells along the path of existing trajectories. It is highly likely that those who have been waiting (with someone they know nearby having starlink) is because that particular cell is over subscribed and they don't want more connections in there until they have more satellites up.
- shaklee3 5y ago
  https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-chip-shortage-satellite-internet-2021-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ch...
lebski88 5y ago
That can't really be true. I ordered it in November and it shipped the same day. I was just in a location that had capacity.

simondotau 5y ago

Is that an assumption on your part, or is there associated evidence? If there is, that’s something I’d really appreciate knowing.

walrus01 5y ago
Every residential last mile isp in the history of commerical ISPs since 1993 has been oversubscribed, the question is at which ratio, and how that technology is implemented. the problem with terrible oversubscription on geostationary consumer grade vsat services is based on the fact that raw transponder kHz on a geostationary satellite is extremely expensive. starlink appear to be taking a very different perspective since they absolutely know about the abysmal reputation of things like viasat/hughesnet/wildblue/etc in the consumer-facing ISP space, and won't ever let it go that way. because it would be a brand name killer.
- simondotau 5y ago
  I agree it's a risk inherent to the ISP business model generally. I was asking if there was any evidence that was specific to Starlink "trying to maintain an unrealistic QoS".
- shaklee3 5y ago
  I see your other comments and you seem very sharp, but I don't understand why you think starlink will be any different, and especially why the initial launch period is anything like a mature service. for instance, do you disagree with anything here? https://twitter.com/LionnetPierre/status/1482863459834511363?t=yTDSZDtQ9Usmc6vesJSHJg&s=19 https://twitter.com/LionnetPierre/status/1482863459834511363...
  - walrus01 5y ago
    I worked in network engineering for geostationary two way satellite for years and have been a starlink beta customer for over a year now. I also have some inside info from network engineering folks in WA state that I can't disclose here. If one fully understands the economics of geostationary it helps to better understand the tech behind starlink. I don't rule out the possibility that it goes bankrupt and ends up in a situation like the 2nd corporate incarnation of iridium, but the tech works great.
    - shaklee3 5y ago
      I also have more than a decade of experience with satellite internet, and geostationary satellites in particular. Nobody has ever said starlink will be technically impossible; the arguments from the start have been that it is not financially solvent. Temporary VC money obviously doesn't tell us whether they're going to be profitable, but I haven't seen any real analysis that shows they have anywhere near the number of subs they need to become profitable. And increasing the subs will surely decrease the quality of the service, because that's always what these satellite companies do. The fact that they just released a more expensive terminal to me means that they are trying to tackle the enterprise market where the cost per bit is significantly higher than with consumers, and those users will for sure get priority over consumers. It also means they are losing money too fast and they needed to at least have a solution that will potentially have higher returns in the short-term. I agree the tech works great for what it is, but I also don't think it's been out anywhere near long enough for people to make judgements about how well it works. I don't think we will have enough longevity data on the terminal for at least a couple more years, so it's not clear if performance will degrade or if the motor will seize due to whether. I think the users that got in now are having a great honeymoon period, but I don't think this will last, and we should not be comparing it to existing, mature services.
shaklee3 5y ago
musk said it https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-chip-shortage-satellite-internet-2021-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ch...

quantumduck 5y ago

This is certainly not true. You can see tons of people in different countries who literally ordered starlink a week ago getting it ahead of lots of people who preordered like a year ago because the ones who are getting quickly are likely in under utilized cells along the path of existing trajectories. It is highly likely that those who have been waiting (with someone they know nearby having starlink) is because that particular cell is over subscribed and they don't want more connections in there until they have more satellites up.

shaklee3 5y ago
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-chip-shortage-satellite-internet-2021-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ch...

lebski88 5y ago

That can't really be true. I ordered it in November and it shipped the same day. I was just in a location that had capacity.