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It’s not helpful to say it’s inevitable if no timeline is given. If it won’t happen for 30 years, there is little point in talking about it right now. Though l

It’s not helpful to say it’s inevitable if no timeline is given. If it won’t happen for 30 years, there is little point in talking about it right now. Though looking at history, when one of these tech giants do fall, a lot of people who were saying it would happen will act like prophets. Especially funny because the downfall of Facebook has been predicted for a decade now. Since Friendster and MySpace each did not last that long.

WalterBright 5y ago
Who has been proven wrong are all the pundits who proclaimed their monopolies were unstoppable. Other giant companies have fallen as well. RCA, Xerox, GE, Kodak, on and on. The reasons are well known. They become bureaucratic, wasteful and ossified, and become unable to adapt to a changing marketplace. I've seen this play out again and again and again in my lifetime.
- skinnymuch 5y ago
  Which sort of pundits? You said "pundits...their monopolies". Are you referring to people with a vested interest in the companies/monopolies? If so, that makes sense. They have no reason not to say that, whether they believe it or not. Yes you're right. However on HN and similar tech/geek areas, the common theme regarding FB for a decade now has been direct or indirect implying of its coming demise. Which was what I was saying in my comment. Those people are not correct. It is being said in this thread and other recent threads too. If FB is still a $5-600B+ company in 2025, then these recent comments are also not correct. Which is to say, it's hard to imagine FB dropping lower than the ~11th biggest US company and ~15th biggest worldwide[0] company at a $600B market cap in 2025. A valuation they did not cross until May 2020. [0] Right now they are 8th in the US and world. Top 5 for earnings. Usually 5th-6th.
  - WalterBright 5y ago
    I've been online on tech groups for 40 years. It's always the same thing - the current crop of tech companies are unstoppable monopolies.
    - skinnymuch 5y ago
      HN, Reddit, Twitter, Tumblr, and similar places online have been talking about the downfall of most of the tech giants and a plethora of sizable medium sized tech companies: Netflix, Paypal, Adobe, Salesforce, Oracle, Atlassian. I'm sure I'm missing a bunch. Besides Atlassian, the rest are all $150-300B companies right now. That's been the same thing for ~15 years now. That's how long I can attest to that behavior for.

WalterBright 5y ago

Who has been proven wrong are all the pundits who proclaimed their monopolies were unstoppable. Other giant companies have fallen as well. RCA, Xerox, GE, Kodak, on and on. The reasons are well known. They become bureaucratic, wasteful and ossified, and become unable to adapt to a changing marketplace. I've seen this play out again and again and again in my lifetime.

skinnymuch 5y ago
Which sort of pundits? You said "pundits...their monopolies". Are you referring to people with a vested interest in the companies/monopolies? If so, that makes sense. They have no reason not to say that, whether they believe it or not. Yes you're right. However on HN and similar tech/geek areas, the common theme regarding FB for a decade now has been direct or indirect implying of its coming demise. Which was what I was saying in my comment. Those people are not correct. It is being said in this thread and other recent threads too. If FB is still a $5-600B+ company in 2025, then these recent comments are also not correct. Which is to say, it's hard to imagine FB dropping lower than the ~11th biggest US company and ~15th biggest worldwide[0] company at a $600B market cap in 2025. A valuation they did not cross until May 2020. [0] Right now they are 8th in the US and world. Top 5 for earnings. Usually 5th-6th.
- WalterBright 5y ago
  I've been online on tech groups for 40 years. It's always the same thing - the current crop of tech companies are unstoppable monopolies.
  - skinnymuch 5y ago
    HN, Reddit, Twitter, Tumblr, and similar places online have been talking about the downfall of most of the tech giants and a plethora of sizable medium sized tech companies: Netflix, Paypal, Adobe, Salesforce, Oracle, Atlassian. I'm sure I'm missing a bunch. Besides Atlassian, the rest are all $150-300B companies right now. That's been the same thing for ~15 years now. That's how long I can attest to that behavior for.