3 ms·
It kind if ignores the dynamic nature of science. Most of what is published probably has close to zero impact regardless of whether its right or wrong, but para
by quanticle 5y ago
It kind if ignores the dynamic nature of science. Most of what is published probably has close to zero impact regardless of whether its right or wrong, but paradigm changing research generally asserts itself.
The problem is that psychology, unlike physics, doesn't really have a paradigm. There's the old saying, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." But for that heuristic to be effective, you need a standard for what counts as extraordinary. Extraordinary compared to what? In phsyics, there are two well-established paradigms (relativity and quantum mechanics), which establish what counts as ordinary, and what counts as extraordinary. So, for example, if you're making a claim that the distribution of dark matter in the cosmos more clumpy than predicted by existing models, of that the energy level of a particular field is 12 MeV rather than 10, those are ordinary claims, which can be accomodated by tweaks to the existing paradigm. But if you're saying that the speed of light has varied over the history of the universe, or that all subatomic particles are actually tiny vibrating string-like structures, well, that's going to require a lot more evidence.
In psychology, it's much more difficult to have that kind of intuition. Take the concept of priming, for example. Is claiming that people walk more slowly when they're encouraged to think of things that make them feel old extraordinary? It makes a certain sort of intuitive sense, but, on the other hand, there's absolutely no causal mechanism suggested. So when a number of priming studies fail spectacularly under replication [1], I don't know what to think. I don't have a good sense for how much of psychology is overturned by the replication failure, in the same sense that I'd have for physics if it turned out that e.g. the speed of light is a variable rather than a constant.
[1]: https://mindhacks.com/2017/02/16/how-replicable-are-the-social-priming-studies-in-thinking-fast-and-slow/ https://mindhacks.com/2017/02/16/how-replicable-are-the-soci...
- pdonis 5y ago> In phsyics, there are two well-established paradigms (relativity and quantum mechanics), which establish what counts as ordinary, and what counts as extraordinary. Actually, I would say that these well-established paradigms establish what counts as extraordinary. In other words, relativity and QM are examples of extraordinary claims that we believe because we have extraordinary evidence for them. Both of these theories say all kinds of extraordinary things, and most people who first encounter the theories start out thinking they can't possibly be true. We believe them not because they are just ordinary, but because we have taken the time and effort to accumulate extraordinary evidence for them. In that light, the replication crisis in other areas of science is easily explained: they allow extraordinary claims to be published without the extraordinary evidence that those claims would require. So of course many of those claims turn out to be wrong.
- 988747 5y agoPsychology currently is just a pseudoscience, really. It is at the same stage the general medicine was before microscope was invented and bacteria discovered: they try to analyze some phenomenon, but they have not discovered the underlying principle yet. My bet is: the real advancement in treating mental disorders will come from AI/neural network researchers, not psychologists.