4 ms·

EDIT: After reading the full paper and not just the twitter graphs, some of what I said is wrong. That is, they also controlled for age, and when controlling f

EDIT: After reading the full paper and not just the twitter graphs, some of what I said is wrong. That is, they also controlled for age, and when controlling for age and road type, autpilot was just worse. On the one hand I had the same suspicion about the unadjusted data, on the other hand the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! However, average human rates include people driving drunk, tired, elders, teenagers etc. So at 43 when I am driving sober, I'm probably safer not using autopilot. When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot.

gnicholas 5y ago
> the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! Presumably drivers take over when it makes mistakes, which tilts the stats a bit. > When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot. As a parent, I wonder about what safety tech I would let my kids use when learning to drive. I want to make sure they fully learn how to drive, which makes me think I shouldn't let them use too much semi-autonomous tech. At the same time, it seems foolish to tell them not to use blind spot monitors, or to even expect them to "check their blind spot" the old-fashioned way if their cars have monitors. Interestingly, my father (in his 70s) tells me he'll never trust blind spot monitors, so I'm seeing a generational difference even between him and me. Too bad, since older drivers probably could benefit the most from not having to look back when changing lanes. Older eyes take longer to re-focus, so it's more likely an older driver would miss something happening ahead on account of having looked rearward.
- rzimmerman 5y ago
  I also think it will be important for any future teenager of mine to learn to drive without the regenerative braking that Teslas default to. It’s a much better driving experience IMO, but I worry a new driver won’t learn the “oh no hit the brakes!” reflex if they rarely use the brake pedal. I’d probably force them to learn with the car set to “normal” ICE/idle—style for the first few months.
  - Psyonic 5y ago
    Is there actually a "normal" style? I've only done a test drive but it seemed like there were various levels of automatic braking, but none that actually allowed you to coast.
- tacLog 5y ago
  > At the same time, it seems foolish to tell them not to use blind spot monitors, or to even expect them to "check their blind spot" the old-fashioned way if their cars have monitors. I have never owned a car with blind spot monitoring. Do people really just rely on them completely? Even in dense urban environments with bikes around? Or is it more of a judgement call? Different perspectives on this would be nice. I have never seen the little light on the mirrors fail to detect me while I am riding but I never trust a driver not to just turn right cutting me off anyways. I am not trying to pass judgement just understand how these driver aids change the way people drive.
  - sdoering 5y ago
    > Different perspectives on this would be nice. Driving for ~25 years. Did quite some kilometers when I was between 19 and 30. My current car is the first one with a lot of assistance systems. I actually see them as additional safety level, but as a first instance still use my senses. Blind spot monitoring is something that I learned to value as a slice in the Swiss Cheese Model of Security [1]. And I detect myself driving extra carefully when driving a car without them. Way more careful than I was driving before I ever had blind spot monitoring. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_cheese_model?wprov=sfla1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_cheese_model?wprov=sfla1
  - LeifCarrotson 5y ago
    It's practially a trope how in sci-fi movies with flying futuristic cars, it's a demonstration of extreme competence for a character to demand "manual controls" to pilot the vehicle...like every normal driver does today. I expect that will become more and more real-world. Even today, most drivers don't know how to drive a manual transmission vehicle, much less how to double-clutch one without synchros or how to stop on ice without ABS. Those are disappearing from public roads and from the capabilities of average drivers, I expect that driving without aids will follow in the same way. As part of my job, I end up renting vehicles pretty frequently, they're often newer models than my daily and have blind spot monitoring, backup cameras, radar cruise, vision-based lanekeeping assist, etc. It's frightening how in the course of a week you can get used to having to put less effort into centering yourself in the lane, trusting that cruise control will just keep a comfortable distance from the vehicle ahead of you. Driving becomes a lot less stressful. When I get back home and climb into my old manual-everything beater, though, it's quite an adjustment. Regarding blind spot checks, yes, the Audi I recently drove had alerts for that, the blinking yellow light in my peripheral vision when cars were passing me was a nice reinforcement, but I'm too conditioned to do head checks to skip those. Likewise, reverse cameras - I've driven many work vans, pickups with headache racks, Jeeps with scratched up plastic, pulled trailers and RVs, etc where the windshield-mounted rearview mirror is useless; lots of pros get used to backing up using the side mirrors only. However, I asked my sister in law (who is extremely competent at most things) to drive my truck for an errand and she asked for help backing it out of the driveway - her car has always had a backup camera, which is honestly lots easier and she was completely uncomfortable using the side mirrors. It's not hard to imagine that someone who only drives with assistive tools would adapt to become dependent on them; I'd argue it's more unusual to expect that they wouldn't!
weego 5y ago
"Tesla Autopilot: Marginally better than the worst drivers on the road" is quite the sales pitch
justapassenger 5y ago
> So at 43 when I am driving sober, I'm probably safer not using autopilot. When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot. That’s very dangerous thinking. Autopilot isn’t self driving and will actively try to kill you, from time to time, like all driver assist systems. 19 year old are much more likely to abuse autopilot and drive distracted/drunk. Only reason those systems aren’t crashing left and right is because drivers are paying attention.
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  It is only dangerous thinking with the most uncharitable interpretation of what I wrote.
lbrito 5y ago
>So at 43 when I am driving sober, I'm probably safer not using autopilot. When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot. That might work out for you, but if teens think like that _now_ and avoid years of driving experience, they can't expect to be any better at driving at 43 than they are as teenagers, which kind of kills the argument.
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  The skills are pretty easy to acquire, it is the maturity that is hard.
spywaregorilla 5y ago
The road and age adjusted graph shows tesla still being better, by a trivial amount
jiggawatts 5y ago
I’ve heard Tesla owners describing autopilot as feeling like being a passenger with a learner driver behind the wheel. That was my first hand experience also, it feels like I’m the nervous dad gritting his teeth while the teenager does something technically legal and safe but nerve-racking.

gnicholas 5y ago

> the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! Presumably drivers take over when it makes mistakes, which tilts the stats a bit. > When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot. As a parent, I wonder about what safety tech I would let my kids use when learning to drive. I want to make sure they fully learn how to drive, which makes me think I shouldn't let them use too much semi-autonomous tech. At the same time, it seems foolish to tell them not to use blind spot monitors, or to even expect them to "check their blind spot" the old-fashioned way if their cars have monitors. Interestingly, my father (in his 70s) tells me he'll never trust blind spot monitors, so I'm seeing a generational difference even between him and me. Too bad, since older drivers probably could benefit the most from not having to look back when changing lanes. Older eyes take longer to re-focus, so it's more likely an older driver would miss something happening ahead on account of having looked rearward.

rzimmerman 5y ago
I also think it will be important for any future teenager of mine to learn to drive without the regenerative braking that Teslas default to. It’s a much better driving experience IMO, but I worry a new driver won’t learn the “oh no hit the brakes!” reflex if they rarely use the brake pedal. I’d probably force them to learn with the car set to “normal” ICE/idle—style for the first few months.
- Psyonic 5y ago
  Is there actually a "normal" style? I've only done a test drive but it seemed like there were various levels of automatic braking, but none that actually allowed you to coast.
tacLog 5y ago
> At the same time, it seems foolish to tell them not to use blind spot monitors, or to even expect them to "check their blind spot" the old-fashioned way if their cars have monitors. I have never owned a car with blind spot monitoring. Do people really just rely on them completely? Even in dense urban environments with bikes around? Or is it more of a judgement call? Different perspectives on this would be nice. I have never seen the little light on the mirrors fail to detect me while I am riding but I never trust a driver not to just turn right cutting me off anyways. I am not trying to pass judgement just understand how these driver aids change the way people drive.
- sdoering 5y ago
  > Different perspectives on this would be nice. Driving for ~25 years. Did quite some kilometers when I was between 19 and 30. My current car is the first one with a lot of assistance systems. I actually see them as additional safety level, but as a first instance still use my senses. Blind spot monitoring is something that I learned to value as a slice in the Swiss Cheese Model of Security [1]. And I detect myself driving extra carefully when driving a car without them. Way more careful than I was driving before I ever had blind spot monitoring. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_cheese_model?wprov=sfla1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_cheese_model?wprov=sfla1
- LeifCarrotson 5y ago
  It's practially a trope how in sci-fi movies with flying futuristic cars, it's a demonstration of extreme competence for a character to demand "manual controls" to pilot the vehicle...like every normal driver does today. I expect that will become more and more real-world. Even today, most drivers don't know how to drive a manual transmission vehicle, much less how to double-clutch one without synchros or how to stop on ice without ABS. Those are disappearing from public roads and from the capabilities of average drivers, I expect that driving without aids will follow in the same way. As part of my job, I end up renting vehicles pretty frequently, they're often newer models than my daily and have blind spot monitoring, backup cameras, radar cruise, vision-based lanekeeping assist, etc. It's frightening how in the course of a week you can get used to having to put less effort into centering yourself in the lane, trusting that cruise control will just keep a comfortable distance from the vehicle ahead of you. Driving becomes a lot less stressful. When I get back home and climb into my old manual-everything beater, though, it's quite an adjustment. Regarding blind spot checks, yes, the Audi I recently drove had alerts for that, the blinking yellow light in my peripheral vision when cars were passing me was a nice reinforcement, but I'm too conditioned to do head checks to skip those. Likewise, reverse cameras - I've driven many work vans, pickups with headache racks, Jeeps with scratched up plastic, pulled trailers and RVs, etc where the windshield-mounted rearview mirror is useless; lots of pros get used to backing up using the side mirrors only. However, I asked my sister in law (who is extremely competent at most things) to drive my truck for an errand and she asked for help backing it out of the driveway - her car has always had a backup camera, which is honestly lots easier and she was completely uncomfortable using the side mirrors. It's not hard to imagine that someone who only drives with assistive tools would adapt to become dependent on them; I'd argue it's more unusual to expect that they wouldn't!

weego 5y ago

"Tesla Autopilot: Marginally better than the worst drivers on the road" is quite the sales pitch

justapassenger 5y ago

> So at 43 when I am driving sober, I'm probably safer not using autopilot. When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot. That’s very dangerous thinking. Autopilot isn’t self driving and will actively try to kill you, from time to time, like all driver assist systems. 19 year old are much more likely to abuse autopilot and drive distracted/drunk. Only reason those systems aren’t crashing left and right is because drivers are paying attention.

gameswithgo 5y ago
It is only dangerous thinking with the most uncharitable interpretation of what I wrote.

lbrito 5y ago

>So at 43 when I am driving sober, I'm probably safer not using autopilot. When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot. That might work out for you, but if teens think like that _now_ and avoid years of driving experience, they can't expect to be any better at driving at 43 than they are as teenagers, which kind of kills the argument.

gameswithgo 5y ago
The skills are pretty easy to acquire, it is the maturity that is hard.

spywaregorilla 5y ago

The road and age adjusted graph shows tesla still being better, by a trivial amount

jiggawatts 5y ago

I’ve heard Tesla owners describing autopilot as feeling like being a passenger with a learner driver behind the wheel. That was my first hand experience also, it feels like I’m the nervous dad gritting his teeth while the teenager does something technically legal and safe but nerve-racking.