4 ms·

Android Has Market Share, But Windows Phone Has Mindshare

15 points by aespinoza 15y ago

alttag 15y ago
It's amazing that Microsoft can engender so much mindshare, but of the *-shares (mindshare, marketshare), the article leaves out share of profits, which makes neither Android nor Microsoft look particularly compelling. One of the troubles Android is facing is that the nature of an open system (... and perhaps this is why Android is becoming less open ...) allows competitors lower entry barriers and enables low-cost providers. There is a race to slash prices and operate on thinner margins. All of this dilutes the value of the brand at the high end, and makes higher-end products stand out less. It's a valid strategy, and Android has successfully shipped an incredible number of units because of it, but profits for phone vendors are thin as a consequence. (Tangentially, unit-based marketshare is exactly what Google wants, as it sells eyeballs to advertisers.) If Microsoft can avoid these downsides of commoditization with Metro, the mindshare the article reports on could become very worthwhile for them.
wccrawford 15y ago
44%? I've never met anyone who was considering a Win7 mobile phone. I've met many that were considering iPhone and Android, though. I might have considered one, if I didn't remember WinCE.
- hvs 15y ago
  The "people I've met" demographic isn't usually the best for determining market demand. Especially since we tend to associate with people similar to ourselves.
  - wccrawford 15y ago
    Normally I'd agree, but 0% to 44% is a huge jump. I'm finding it hard to believe.
    - hvs 15y ago
      Is it actually 0%, though? Do you make a point of asking everyone you know if they plan on buying a Windows phone? Everyone?
- m0shen 15y ago
  I have owned 3 Windows Mobile phones. In a pre-IOS, pre-Android era, they were okay, but today they would have to come up with something truly extraordinary for me to consider them again.
  - barista 15y ago
    Hmmmm then you gotta have a look at the windows phone. Nothing short of extraordinary
kemayo 15y ago
The article doesn't say, and I didn't see a link to the report which might have provided useful information... However, I can see two basic forms this survey question might have taken. First: "which smartphone would you consider buying: iPhone, Android, Windows Phone, Blackberry, ..." (Or asking type-by-type "would you consider buying an X?" Second: "which sort of smartphone would you consider buying?" You can get wildly different answers by changing the form of the question. Providing a list and saying "which would you consider?" is probably going to get a lot of people saying "sure, I'd consider that", whereas asking without the prompt is going to produce a list of the devices with actual mindshare.
- crenshaw 15y ago
  The other thing that is interesting is: "Android and iOS are covered tons in the media, and Windows Phone—surprisingly for a Microsoft product—seems to have missed the boat on brand awareness. An embarrassing 45 percent of consumers surveyed by NPD said they were unaware of Windows Phone 7. And among the 50 percent of consumers who said they will be buying a smartphone, but didn’t want to buy a Windows Phone, the biggest reason, accounting for 46 percent of respondents, was because they didn’t know enough about the Windows Phone OS." Basically if you know about WP then you'd consider it. But nearly as many people don't know about it at all as those that have heard of it.
crenshaw 15y ago
A lot of people wondered why in the world would MS endorse a 4'7" phone (the HTC Titan). From people I know who work retail, including a cousin who works for ATT retail, people come into stores wanting either an iPhone or a smartphone. The iPhone users are pretty set. Their kids have it, or they had one before, or their wife has one, or everyone tells them it is the best. For people not set on iPhone, it sounds like the decision is often made in the store. And apparently big screens and thin phones area big deal. Android has dominated the retail presence. If WP can match the retail presence, it can probably start splitting some sales with Android.
- wccrawford 15y ago
  I'm all for big screen, but 4 ft 7 inches is just too big. Titan is a good name for it. ;) I suspect you mean 4.7" instead. :)
  - laconian 15y ago
    "Titan" indeed!
neworbit 15y ago
That shouldn't be too strange. I'd consider buying one, and I don't use many MS products. No reason not to evaluate it in a purchasing decision. All things being equal I'd probably buy another Android device, but I'm not zealous enough to say "if MS makes a better product I won't buy it!" (Though if you do say that about Apple or Microsoft, I can understand the sentiment...)
tomkarlo 15y ago
What does it even mean that they're "considering" WinMo phones? When I bought a car, I "considered" buying a Kia - I was aware they exist and of their brand, value, etc.... that doesn't mean there was any actual chance I was going to buy one. The only car brands I didn't "consider" were ones no longer selling in the US.
- aespinoza 15y ago
  If Apple began building cars, would you "consider" buying one? Comparing the Microsoft brand with the Kia brand is not leveled. Microsoft is a top brand in Enterprise software. It is just getting into a different industry. Now the most interesting thing, is that Microsoft was a worthy competitor years back with their Window Mobile brand. So it is not so far fetched to think they can regain the market share they lost, and maybe even more.
  - tomkarlo 15y ago
    Yeah, I'd "consider" it. I'd probably reject it, but just to reject it would mean I "considered" it - simply forming an opinion about something, positive or negative, means you've considered it. Kia's a perfectly good brand, in my view. I wasn't using it to be negative about Microsoft, that's your bias or defensiveness. I'm just saying that the article is citing the number of people who would "consider" buying Windows Mobile, which is a really weak indicator for how many would buy it. What % of people would "consider" getting kicked in the nuts for $10? I'd argue nearly 100%, but how many would actually agree to it?
    - aespinoza 15y ago
      I understand your point. I think what is interesting about this story is not about how the word consider is being used. It is mostly about interest. People are open to a Microsoft Phone, and that could definitely drive expectations. I don't want to drag this discussion further. I understand your points, and I actually agree. We are just talking about two different things.
nextparadigms 15y ago
Windows Phone has mind share? Didn't we see some articles recently that even store clerks confuse Windows Phone with Windows Mobile phones, and don't care much about them?
runjake 15y ago
WP7 user here (I even left the iPhone for it). Mindshare? What mindshare? Even die-hard Windows users I encounter think that WP7 == Windows Mobile, and thus, think it's total crap... until I show them the actual experience and apps. Seems like every time I'm at a wireless store, there's an employee showing a customer phones who shows them a WP7 dismissively. If the person selling you a phone thinks it sucks (for whatever reason or prejudice), what are the odds you're going to buy that phone? Microsoft has a lot of image fixing to do. There's a huge image problem here.
- kpao 15y ago
  I think this is going to change. I was at an AT&T store this morning and saw one of the sales rep taking a quizz with questions about WP7 and Mango. If all the sales reps go through it, maybe it'll change the vision they have and what they tell customers.
jsz0 15y ago
This does not surprise me. I've had many problems with my Android phones (3 so far) I really don't see the point in getting another one. I'd rather give WM7 a try at this point. Maybe in 2 years or whatever I'll give Android another shot but my needs are basic enough (web/mail) that it seems silly to suffer with Android any longer.

15 points by aespinoza 15y ago

It's amazing that Microsoft can engender so much mindshare, but of the *-shares (mindshare, marketshare), the article leaves out share of profits, which makes neither Android nor Microsoft look particularly compelling. One of the troubles Android is facing is that the nature of an open system (... and perhaps this is why Android is becoming less open ...) allows competitors lower entry barriers and enables low-cost providers. There is a race to slash prices and operate on thinner margins. All of this dilutes the value of the brand at the high end, and makes higher-end products stand out less. It's a valid strategy, and Android has successfully shipped an incredible number of units because of it, but profits for phone vendors are thin as a consequence. (Tangentially, unit-based marketshare is exactly what Google wants, as it sells eyeballs to advertisers.) If Microsoft can avoid these downsides of commoditization with Metro, the mindshare the article reports on could become very worthwhile for them.

wccrawford 15y ago

44%? I've never met anyone who was considering a Win7 mobile phone. I've met many that were considering iPhone and Android, though. I might have considered one, if I didn't remember WinCE.

hvs 15y ago
The "people I've met" demographic isn't usually the best for determining market demand. Especially since we tend to associate with people similar to ourselves.
- wccrawford 15y ago
  Normally I'd agree, but 0% to 44% is a huge jump. I'm finding it hard to believe.
  - hvs 15y ago
    Is it actually 0%, though? Do you make a point of asking everyone you know if they plan on buying a Windows phone? Everyone?
m0shen 15y ago
I have owned 3 Windows Mobile phones. In a pre-IOS, pre-Android era, they were okay, but today they would have to come up with something truly extraordinary for me to consider them again.
- barista 15y ago
  Hmmmm then you gotta have a look at the windows phone. Nothing short of extraordinary

kemayo 15y ago

The article doesn't say, and I didn't see a link to the report which might have provided useful information... However, I can see two basic forms this survey question might have taken. First: "which smartphone would you consider buying: iPhone, Android, Windows Phone, Blackberry, ..." (Or asking type-by-type "would you consider buying an X?" Second: "which sort of smartphone would you consider buying?" You can get wildly different answers by changing the form of the question. Providing a list and saying "which would you consider?" is probably going to get a lot of people saying "sure, I'd consider that", whereas asking without the prompt is going to produce a list of the devices with actual mindshare.

crenshaw 15y ago
The other thing that is interesting is: "Android and iOS are covered tons in the media, and Windows Phone—surprisingly for a Microsoft product—seems to have missed the boat on brand awareness. An embarrassing 45 percent of consumers surveyed by NPD said they were unaware of Windows Phone 7. And among the 50 percent of consumers who said they will be buying a smartphone, but didn’t want to buy a Windows Phone, the biggest reason, accounting for 46 percent of respondents, was because they didn’t know enough about the Windows Phone OS." Basically if you know about WP then you'd consider it. But nearly as many people don't know about it at all as those that have heard of it.

crenshaw 15y ago

A lot of people wondered why in the world would MS endorse a 4'7" phone (the HTC Titan). From people I know who work retail, including a cousin who works for ATT retail, people come into stores wanting either an iPhone or a smartphone. The iPhone users are pretty set. Their kids have it, or they had one before, or their wife has one, or everyone tells them it is the best. For people not set on iPhone, it sounds like the decision is often made in the store. And apparently big screens and thin phones area big deal. Android has dominated the retail presence. If WP can match the retail presence, it can probably start splitting some sales with Android.

wccrawford 15y ago
I'm all for big screen, but 4 ft 7 inches is just too big. Titan is a good name for it. ;) I suspect you mean 4.7" instead. :)
- laconian 15y ago
  "Titan" indeed!

neworbit 15y ago

That shouldn't be too strange. I'd consider buying one, and I don't use many MS products. No reason not to evaluate it in a purchasing decision. All things being equal I'd probably buy another Android device, but I'm not zealous enough to say "if MS makes a better product I won't buy it!" (Though if you do say that about Apple or Microsoft, I can understand the sentiment...)

tomkarlo 15y ago

What does it even mean that they're "considering" WinMo phones? When I bought a car, I "considered" buying a Kia - I was aware they exist and of their brand, value, etc.... that doesn't mean there was any actual chance I was going to buy one. The only car brands I didn't "consider" were ones no longer selling in the US.

aespinoza 15y ago
If Apple began building cars, would you "consider" buying one? Comparing the Microsoft brand with the Kia brand is not leveled. Microsoft is a top brand in Enterprise software. It is just getting into a different industry. Now the most interesting thing, is that Microsoft was a worthy competitor years back with their Window Mobile brand. So it is not so far fetched to think they can regain the market share they lost, and maybe even more.
- tomkarlo 15y ago
  Yeah, I'd "consider" it. I'd probably reject it, but just to reject it would mean I "considered" it - simply forming an opinion about something, positive or negative, means you've considered it. Kia's a perfectly good brand, in my view. I wasn't using it to be negative about Microsoft, that's your bias or defensiveness. I'm just saying that the article is citing the number of people who would "consider" buying Windows Mobile, which is a really weak indicator for how many would buy it. What % of people would "consider" getting kicked in the nuts for $10? I'd argue nearly 100%, but how many would actually agree to it?
  - aespinoza 15y ago
    I understand your point. I think what is interesting about this story is not about how the word consider is being used. It is mostly about interest. People are open to a Microsoft Phone, and that could definitely drive expectations. I don't want to drag this discussion further. I understand your points, and I actually agree. We are just talking about two different things.

nextparadigms 15y ago

Windows Phone has mind share? Didn't we see some articles recently that even store clerks confuse Windows Phone with Windows Mobile phones, and don't care much about them?

runjake 15y ago

WP7 user here (I even left the iPhone for it). Mindshare? What mindshare? Even die-hard Windows users I encounter think that WP7 == Windows Mobile, and thus, think it's total crap... until I show them the actual experience and apps. Seems like every time I'm at a wireless store, there's an employee showing a customer phones who shows them a WP7 dismissively. If the person selling you a phone thinks it sucks (for whatever reason or prejudice), what are the odds you're going to buy that phone? Microsoft has a lot of image fixing to do. There's a huge image problem here.

kpao 15y ago
I think this is going to change. I was at an AT&T store this morning and saw one of the sales rep taking a quizz with questions about WP7 and Mango. If all the sales reps go through it, maybe it'll change the vision they have and what they tell customers.

jsz0 15y ago

This does not surprise me. I've had many problems with my Android phones (3 so far) I really don't see the point in getting another one. I'd rather give WM7 a try at this point. Maybe in 2 years or whatever I'll give Android another shot but my needs are basic enough (web/mail) that it seems silly to suffer with Android any longer.