3 ms·

Got to give the guy his due though: the average capitalist bastard couldn’t literally sell a promise like that and hold it off for half a decade yet still maint

by hughrr 5y ago

Got to give the guy his due though: the average capitalist bastard couldn’t literally sell a promise like that and hold it off for half a decade yet still maintain a rabid fanbase stating it’ll be any minute now and shooting down any dissident opinion. /s for the sake of the challenged. I figured most of the cars that had FSD paid for will be scrap before it happens.

pessimizer 5y ago
I disagree. This stuff can go on indefinitely until the big money pulls out, and the big money doesn't pull out until something happens to make the investment embarrassing to mention to your peers. It took an expose from the WSJ (which probably wouldn't have worked from any other paper) to do it for Theranos, it simply took a memorable, repeatable joke to do the same type of thing for Bill Cosby. I honestly don't think that Tesla is hiding fraud at that level. If anything is going to kill Tesla, it'll be cheaper, higher-quality competition, probably followed with lies about sales figures. Things that are years off (as far as I know.) Lies about what your technology is on the verge of doing are standard for the tech industry.
- hughrr 5y ago
  I think it is 100% fraudulent to charge for the FSD option that isn’t enabled at delivery of the vehicle. Edit: to qualify this my father paid over £5000 for it three years ago.
  - pessimizer 5y ago
    I made sure to qualify it with "at that level." Minor fraud is minor.
  - CultMember009 5y ago
- thesausageking 5y ago
  I don't see a huge implosion happening. What will tank Tesla's stock is when competitors catch up and pass them. Two years ago, Tesla was the only viable option. Today, buyers have a lot of options and with Tesla's continued problems with quality and service, that will mean other makers will continue to capture more market share. On the autonomous driving side, Waymo and other teams are years ahead of Tesla. Elon's been able to convince the market otherwise and so far they've bought it. In the next 1-2 years as self-driving cars get deployed onto the roads this will be undeniable. I don't see a big, Theranos style implosion. The market will slowly grow concerned, there will be a "correction" which Tesla stans will ignore and then will be a slow decline with dips each time competitors release strong numbers. By 2023-2024, Tesla's market cap will have fallen 70-80% down to that of other car makers.
  - hughrr 5y ago
    Agree with this. I suspect someone will release an actually affordable (comparable to ICE up front and ownership costs), safe, basic EV with decent range and standard car features which has better quality and less hype around it and Tesla will be lose the ass end of the model 3 market. It’ll all collapse from there.
ryandvm 5y ago
I don't know. The last few years of US politics has really opened my eyes to just how blatantly someone can lie and get away with it pretty much indefinitely. What it comes down to is: do people want to believe your lie? If they do, almost nothing will dissuade them from believing it.

by hughrr 5y ago

pessimizer 5y ago

I disagree. This stuff can go on indefinitely until the big money pulls out, and the big money doesn't pull out until something happens to make the investment embarrassing to mention to your peers. It took an expose from the WSJ (which probably wouldn't have worked from any other paper) to do it for Theranos, it simply took a memorable, repeatable joke to do the same type of thing for Bill Cosby. I honestly don't think that Tesla is hiding fraud at that level. If anything is going to kill Tesla, it'll be cheaper, higher-quality competition, probably followed with lies about sales figures. Things that are years off (as far as I know.) Lies about what your technology is on the verge of doing are standard for the tech industry.

hughrr 5y ago
I think it is 100% fraudulent to charge for the FSD option that isn’t enabled at delivery of the vehicle. Edit: to qualify this my father paid over £5000 for it three years ago.
- pessimizer 5y ago
  I made sure to qualify it with "at that level." Minor fraud is minor.
- CultMember009 5y ago
thesausageking 5y ago
I don't see a huge implosion happening. What will tank Tesla's stock is when competitors catch up and pass them. Two years ago, Tesla was the only viable option. Today, buyers have a lot of options and with Tesla's continued problems with quality and service, that will mean other makers will continue to capture more market share. On the autonomous driving side, Waymo and other teams are years ahead of Tesla. Elon's been able to convince the market otherwise and so far they've bought it. In the next 1-2 years as self-driving cars get deployed onto the roads this will be undeniable. I don't see a big, Theranos style implosion. The market will slowly grow concerned, there will be a "correction" which Tesla stans will ignore and then will be a slow decline with dips each time competitors release strong numbers. By 2023-2024, Tesla's market cap will have fallen 70-80% down to that of other car makers.
- hughrr 5y ago
  Agree with this. I suspect someone will release an actually affordable (comparable to ICE up front and ownership costs), safe, basic EV with decent range and standard car features which has better quality and less hype around it and Tesla will be lose the ass end of the model 3 market. It’ll all collapse from there.

ryandvm 5y ago

I don't know. The last few years of US politics has really opened my eyes to just how blatantly someone can lie and get away with it pretty much indefinitely. What it comes down to is: do people want to believe your lie? If they do, almost nothing will dissuade them from believing it.