7 ms·
The current spike in cases could be seen as a control scenario for what would have happened without lockdowns (remember "flatten the curve"?). For the Alpha va
by glial 5y ago
The current spike in cases could be seen as a control scenario for what would have happened without lockdowns (remember "flatten the curve"?). For the Alpha variant, the case-fatality rate for the original variant was about 1%. In the US, the latest numbers are 424k/day. So we can suppose that if numbers were as high then, we'd have seen about 4.2k deaths/day, compared to the actual spring 2020 peak of ~2500. And that doesn't consider the probable knock-on effects on our medical system, since the hospitalization rate would have likely been much higher.
- smaryjerry 5y agoThat case fatality rate was initially so high because there was no testing available and testing was saved for the most severe cases. If you tried to get a test you couldn’t, they wouldn’t give you a test at all unless you had confirmed contact with another person with a positive case, who also couldn’t get testing.
- glial 5y agoVery true, though people were also unvaccinated so it's difficult to disentangle. Do you know what the case fatality rate is for unvaccinated folks with delta & omicron? I looked but was unable to find a good source.