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From the study: "Overall, our meta-analysis fails to confirm that lockdowns have had a large, significant effect on mortality rates. Studies examining the rela

From the study: "Overall, our meta-analysis fails to confirm that lockdowns have had a large, significant effect on mortality rates. Studies examining the relationship between lockdown strictness (based on the OxCGRT stringency index) find that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% compared to a COVID-19 policy based solely on recommendations. Shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs) were also ineffective. They only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 2.9%." But there is some nuance in there, worth reading.

eli 5y ago
At least based on my experience in the US the "lockdown" orders in practice were not significantly more strict than the government issuing very strong recommendations.
- brg 5y ago
  I agree on a social behavior point of view. However, there is nuance. Very strong recommendations don't close public and private schools, day care, public parks and beaches, nor significantly curtail economic activity in restaurants and other non-essential businesses.
  - eli 5y ago
    Schools here had already been closed for two weeks before a stay-at-home order was issued, but I get your point. That said, in April 2020 I assure you that economic activity in restaurants and non-essential businesses would have been severely disrupted regardless of government action. Most were already closed or take-out only.
- aantix 5y ago
  The first few months where everything was closed, including parks and beaches?
  - ryandrake 5y ago
    I don't recall any point, at least in my region: Bay Area, CA, when people universally complied with these closures. I think OP's point is: regardless of whether things were ordered closed, enough people were out and about horsing around, ignoring the closures, that nothing was effectively closed. There was no real lockdown in the USA, if you go beyond just looking at the mandates and take into account people's actual behavior. So I'm not sure how they review effects of a lockdown that never happened.
    - concinds 5y ago
      Unless you plan on deploying the U.S. military on every street and beach during the next lockdown, what we saw was what happens when a lockdown is declared. They're measuring the efficacy of an intervention: lockdowns being declared; high/low compliance is irrelevant to the intervention's effectiveness, since compliance isn't within the government's control.
    - landemva 5y ago
      'There was no real lockdown in the USA ' Not really true. Hawaii closed parks, trails, and beaches. https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/hawaii-coronavirus-cases-inter-island-travel-restrictions https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/hawaii-coronavi... ' Honolulu, city parks were closed on Aug. 8 along with beaches and state parks and indoor attractions like bowling alleys and arcades. ' Colorado closed all ski areas. https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/14/jared-polis-executive-order-ski-resorts/ https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/14/jared-polis-executive-ord...
      - eli 5y ago
        Closing parks and beaches is definitely something but is it fair to call that a "real lockdown"? Compared to places with curfews and travel restrictions?
        s1artibartfast 5y ago
        It's definitely something, I would call it a crappy ineffective and poorly advised lockdown
- sharken 5y ago
  Well, here a recommendation have been the same as "You must do this". Only the legislation does not support using that wording, so recommendation was chosen.
- chrismcb 5y ago
  Lockdown orders across a lot of the US required non essential businesses to close. It wasn't a "recommendation" as people were thrown in jail for having businesses open
manwe150 5y ago
I would be curious to know if they were sufficiently able to remove confounding variables to make this claim. For comparison to another statistical quirk: someone I know made this chart which fails to show any correlation between vaccination rates and death rates in the last 14 days on a state-by-state basis in the US: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x9sKFsr-3VpdjvjZqHql6EOg8LqsyLQ0/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=111029439715098511131&rtpof=true&sd=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x9sKFsr-3VpdjvjZqHql... Now, we have evidence from other sources that the vaccine is definitely highly effective in every particular state (this should not require a citation, but here you go anyways: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-s...). But it seems there are too many confounding variables here (age, population density, etc.) such that attempting a simple region-by-region comparison over any particular time period might incorrectly conclude that the vaccine does not work. Was JHU able to address that data collection and comparison problem here?
- thenayr 5y ago
- sharken 5y ago
  If the majority of people receiving the vaccine are new to the vaccine and from 5-25 years, then you won't see any correlation between vaccination rates and death rates. It's also interesting that lockdowns seem to be a wasted effort. Much suck for Ireland that imposed some of the worst lockdowns. https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/nis-new-covid-lockdown-explained-more-cops-on-the-streets-the-reasonable-excuses-needed-for-being-out-and-what-shops-are-open-39945975.html https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/nis... Thankfully all restrictions have just been lifted here in Denmark.
  - landemva 5y ago
    "... you won't see any correlation between vaccination rates and death rates." That sums it up nicely. Good that some of Europe is opening.
IHLayman 5y ago
It’s hard to consider .2% reduction in mortality non-significant. Nearly 6 million people have died from COVID as of now. 0.2% of that is nearly 12,000 lives. Calling SIPOs ineffective as well because they only reduced mortality by 2.9% is a bit deceptive since that is nearly 174,000 lives.
- concinds 5y ago
  Those percentages only apply during active lockdowns; your premise is that there's been a continuous, worldwide lockdown for the past 2 years. The actual numbers will be far less. Also, this study only measures impacts of lockdowns on Covid mortality, and doesn't include the human and financial costs of lockdowns.

eli 5y ago

At least based on my experience in the US the "lockdown" orders in practice were not significantly more strict than the government issuing very strong recommendations.

brg 5y ago
I agree on a social behavior point of view. However, there is nuance. Very strong recommendations don't close public and private schools, day care, public parks and beaches, nor significantly curtail economic activity in restaurants and other non-essential businesses.
- eli 5y ago
  Schools here had already been closed for two weeks before a stay-at-home order was issued, but I get your point. That said, in April 2020 I assure you that economic activity in restaurants and non-essential businesses would have been severely disrupted regardless of government action. Most were already closed or take-out only.
aantix 5y ago
The first few months where everything was closed, including parks and beaches?
- ryandrake 5y ago
  I don't recall any point, at least in my region: Bay Area, CA, when people universally complied with these closures. I think OP's point is: regardless of whether things were ordered closed, enough people were out and about horsing around, ignoring the closures, that nothing was effectively closed. There was no real lockdown in the USA, if you go beyond just looking at the mandates and take into account people's actual behavior. So I'm not sure how they review effects of a lockdown that never happened.
  - concinds 5y ago
    Unless you plan on deploying the U.S. military on every street and beach during the next lockdown, what we saw was what happens when a lockdown is declared. They're measuring the efficacy of an intervention: lockdowns being declared; high/low compliance is irrelevant to the intervention's effectiveness, since compliance isn't within the government's control.
  - landemva 5y ago
    'There was no real lockdown in the USA ' Not really true. Hawaii closed parks, trails, and beaches. https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/hawaii-coronavirus-cases-inter-island-travel-restrictions https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/hawaii-coronavi... ' Honolulu, city parks were closed on Aug. 8 along with beaches and state parks and indoor attractions like bowling alleys and arcades. ' Colorado closed all ski areas. https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/14/jared-polis-executive-order-ski-resorts/ https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/14/jared-polis-executive-ord...
    - eli 5y ago
      Closing parks and beaches is definitely something but is it fair to call that a "real lockdown"? Compared to places with curfews and travel restrictions?
      - s1artibartfast 5y ago
        It's definitely something, I would call it a crappy ineffective and poorly advised lockdown
sharken 5y ago
Well, here a recommendation have been the same as "You must do this". Only the legislation does not support using that wording, so recommendation was chosen.
chrismcb 5y ago
Lockdown orders across a lot of the US required non essential businesses to close. It wasn't a "recommendation" as people were thrown in jail for having businesses open

manwe150 5y ago

I would be curious to know if they were sufficiently able to remove confounding variables to make this claim. For comparison to another statistical quirk: someone I know made this chart which fails to show any correlation between vaccination rates and death rates in the last 14 days on a state-by-state basis in the US: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x9sKFsr-3VpdjvjZqHql6EOg8LqsyLQ0/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=111029439715098511131&rtpof=true&sd=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x9sKFsr-3VpdjvjZqHql... Now, we have evidence from other sources that the vaccine is definitely highly effective in every particular state (this should not require a citation, but here you go anyways: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-s...). But it seems there are too many confounding variables here (age, population density, etc.) such that attempting a simple region-by-region comparison over any particular time period might incorrectly conclude that the vaccine does not work. Was JHU able to address that data collection and comparison problem here?

thenayr 5y ago
sharken 5y ago
If the majority of people receiving the vaccine are new to the vaccine and from 5-25 years, then you won't see any correlation between vaccination rates and death rates. It's also interesting that lockdowns seem to be a wasted effort. Much suck for Ireland that imposed some of the worst lockdowns. https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/nis-new-covid-lockdown-explained-more-cops-on-the-streets-the-reasonable-excuses-needed-for-being-out-and-what-shops-are-open-39945975.html https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/nis... Thankfully all restrictions have just been lifted here in Denmark.
- landemva 5y ago
  "... you won't see any correlation between vaccination rates and death rates." That sums it up nicely. Good that some of Europe is opening.

IHLayman 5y ago

It’s hard to consider .2% reduction in mortality non-significant. Nearly 6 million people have died from COVID as of now. 0.2% of that is nearly 12,000 lives. Calling SIPOs ineffective as well because they only reduced mortality by 2.9% is a bit deceptive since that is nearly 174,000 lives.

concinds 5y ago
Those percentages only apply during active lockdowns; your premise is that there's been a continuous, worldwide lockdown for the past 2 years. The actual numbers will be far less. Also, this study only measures impacts of lockdowns on Covid mortality, and doesn't include the human and financial costs of lockdowns.