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When did I say anything about printing money? Don't conflate a policy debate about how we spend the commonwealth with the policy debate about how we collect th

When did I say anything about printing money? Don't conflate a policy debate about how we spend the commonwealth with the policy debate about how we collect the commonwealth.

jollybean 5y ago
"When did I say anything about printing money?" Because that's how UBI will have to come into fruition i.e. under the auspices 'MMT' or some other made up term. It's 100% politically impossible to raise taxes on the middle and upper 1/3 to to the extent necessary to pay off the bottom 1/4-1/3 of the population to (mostly) do nothing and that's not even starting to consider the instantaneous shock of inflation that will hit the moment it happens. 0% chance of this happening in any country, any nation, any situation - can't happen. Ergo, the policy has to be hidden into some kind of 'magic money' theory or policy, which will invariably involve a lot of money and credit creation. We're already seeing the effects of this today. That's not to say we can't improve a lot of issues with regards to equality including possibly raising taxes and many other things - but it's far more effective to have people work on doing things of value, like attendants in retirement homes, making meals, then it is to give them free surpluses and have them mostly stay at home. UBI is much like Crypto, an interesting idea that does not add up in any meaningful way in our current context.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > It's 100% politically impossible to raise taxes on the middle and upper 1/3 to to the extent necessary to pay off the bottom 1/4-1/3 of the population to (mostly) do nothing That's not the idea or reasonably foreseeable effect of UBI. Rather ambitious near-term UBI ideas aim it right around the Federal Poverty Level, which is the income at which only about 13% of the population would be at or above their current real income if they had no other income, and those people are already largely getting some means-tested aid that would be replaced by UBI. And, compared to existing means-tested aid, UBI reduces the disincentive to outside income. You aren't paying the bottom 1/4-1/3 to do nothing. > but it's far more effective to have people work on doing things of value That's the central idea of changing to UBI (which allows people to work on things of value without immediately losing side) from classical means-tested welfare (which does not.)
  - anonporridge 5y ago
    > And, compared to existing means-tested aid, UBI reduces the disincentive to outside income. Important point. Especially people currently on disability are actively disincentivized from doing any amount of work. Worse, they're even disincentivized to do volunteer work out of terror that someone might report them as able-bodied and they lose their benefits, even if they are legitimately disabled and merely trying to contribute the tiny amount that they can.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    These are the fallacies that I'm highlighting. 1) Unions will not permit the dissolution of the systems in place. 2) 'Means testing' should not theoretically be hard - and - it's actually a rational thing to do (so long as you point out the disincentive is not there) - ergo a reform of these programs should yield much the same benefit. But they won't and they don't. So the first fallacy is to not recognize that the means by which these things are organized has less to do with economic theory and more to do with organizational competence and efficiency - which we struggle with. But on the other side of the equation: 3) We don't understand the nature of work, poverty etc.. Everyone thinks about homeless people as though they have the same life motivations as the rest of us, grinding away in the system, and that's wrong. People in tent cities are already mostly opting between 'tent city squalor' and 'Amazon factory drudgery'. Yes, it's hard to get a job from a tent, but even they had the chance to work at the Amazon / Waffle House, they just won't want to do it. Those people will not come out of tents for $500 a month even with the opportunity to earn more. In an absolute free market situation, they would live in tiny, semi-permanent structures and chill out. When you mix drugs into the equation, incentives are more perverse. Where I live we have $1K a month means tested welfare, and many homeless opt for living rough during the summer (and taking a flat in the winter) because they'd rather spend it on crack. That dynamic is only exacerbated with more money. Students fresh out of College, in the area that I live in all have a lot of side interests. I know many of them and I believe the average choice among them would be to take UBI, work on their documentary (which is not very good), go to the gym, and maybe work a few days now and again (serving coffee) for some money for the trip to Africa. With free Uni, free Healthcare, almost free childcare (this is Canada), you've subsidized the entire cost of living and externalized all of the difficult work, ugly work, and especially the kind of work that takes a lot of time and professionalism to develop. Esp. those 'late stage career people' with significant responsibilities upon which we depend a lot aka 'the legitimate elite'. Which is where the reality of the economics comes into play ... even if someone could make the argument that UBI 'is affordable' - which I would totally disagree with other than for a paltry amount, say $500 a month, the loss in productivity at the lower end would be substantial, to the point wherein we'd see large swaths of value evaporated, the cost of labour would rise significantly and incentive structures would start failing. If we're talking just 'economic incentives' than probably just better taxation at the higher (getting rid of loopholes and higher rates on the ultra-rich), and a bump in mimimum wage would make a big difference because the allocation of that 'extra capital focused on the lower end' would still have some market efficiency and it would be oriented towards productivity. That - and basic, communitarian social measures would work. I believe UBI is like Crtypo or Bitcon - utopian solution that fails for fairly obvious reasons, like a kind of 'solve the equation' thinking that we technical people have that just doesn't work once you account for the more obvious social features of society. I don't think there are any magic solutions. We have to raise our kids well, provide some kind of quasi-level playing ground, and accept some people will fall of the edge and have some way to help them and to try to minimize that.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  "but it's far more effective to have people work on doing things of value" Are people who produce alcohol, cigarets, runs casinos and homeopathy clinics or lobby politicians in behalf of oil companies 'doing things of value'?

When did I say anything about printing money? Don't conflate a policy debate about how we spend the commonwealth with the policy debate about how we collect the commonwealth.

jollybean 5y ago

"When did I say anything about printing money?" Because that's how UBI will have to come into fruition i.e. under the auspices 'MMT' or some other made up term. It's 100% politically impossible to raise taxes on the middle and upper 1/3 to to the extent necessary to pay off the bottom 1/4-1/3 of the population to (mostly) do nothing and that's not even starting to consider the instantaneous shock of inflation that will hit the moment it happens. 0% chance of this happening in any country, any nation, any situation - can't happen. Ergo, the policy has to be hidden into some kind of 'magic money' theory or policy, which will invariably involve a lot of money and credit creation. We're already seeing the effects of this today. That's not to say we can't improve a lot of issues with regards to equality including possibly raising taxes and many other things - but it's far more effective to have people work on doing things of value, like attendants in retirement homes, making meals, then it is to give them free surpluses and have them mostly stay at home. UBI is much like Crypto, an interesting idea that does not add up in any meaningful way in our current context.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> It's 100% politically impossible to raise taxes on the middle and upper 1/3 to to the extent necessary to pay off the bottom 1/4-1/3 of the population to (mostly) do nothing That's not the idea or reasonably foreseeable effect of UBI. Rather ambitious near-term UBI ideas aim it right around the Federal Poverty Level, which is the income at which only about 13% of the population would be at or above their current real income if they had no other income, and those people are already largely getting some means-tested aid that would be replaced by UBI. And, compared to existing means-tested aid, UBI reduces the disincentive to outside income. You aren't paying the bottom 1/4-1/3 to do nothing. > but it's far more effective to have people work on doing things of value That's the central idea of changing to UBI (which allows people to work on things of value without immediately losing side) from classical means-tested welfare (which does not.)
- anonporridge 5y ago
  > And, compared to existing means-tested aid, UBI reduces the disincentive to outside income. Important point. Especially people currently on disability are actively disincentivized from doing any amount of work. Worse, they're even disincentivized to do volunteer work out of terror that someone might report them as able-bodied and they lose their benefits, even if they are legitimately disabled and merely trying to contribute the tiny amount that they can.
- jollybean 5y ago
  These are the fallacies that I'm highlighting. 1) Unions will not permit the dissolution of the systems in place. 2) 'Means testing' should not theoretically be hard - and - it's actually a rational thing to do (so long as you point out the disincentive is not there) - ergo a reform of these programs should yield much the same benefit. But they won't and they don't. So the first fallacy is to not recognize that the means by which these things are organized has less to do with economic theory and more to do with organizational competence and efficiency - which we struggle with. But on the other side of the equation: 3) We don't understand the nature of work, poverty etc.. Everyone thinks about homeless people as though they have the same life motivations as the rest of us, grinding away in the system, and that's wrong. People in tent cities are already mostly opting between 'tent city squalor' and 'Amazon factory drudgery'. Yes, it's hard to get a job from a tent, but even they had the chance to work at the Amazon / Waffle House, they just won't want to do it. Those people will not come out of tents for $500 a month even with the opportunity to earn more. In an absolute free market situation, they would live in tiny, semi-permanent structures and chill out. When you mix drugs into the equation, incentives are more perverse. Where I live we have $1K a month means tested welfare, and many homeless opt for living rough during the summer (and taking a flat in the winter) because they'd rather spend it on crack. That dynamic is only exacerbated with more money. Students fresh out of College, in the area that I live in all have a lot of side interests. I know many of them and I believe the average choice among them would be to take UBI, work on their documentary (which is not very good), go to the gym, and maybe work a few days now and again (serving coffee) for some money for the trip to Africa. With free Uni, free Healthcare, almost free childcare (this is Canada), you've subsidized the entire cost of living and externalized all of the difficult work, ugly work, and especially the kind of work that takes a lot of time and professionalism to develop. Esp. those 'late stage career people' with significant responsibilities upon which we depend a lot aka 'the legitimate elite'. Which is where the reality of the economics comes into play ... even if someone could make the argument that UBI 'is affordable' - which I would totally disagree with other than for a paltry amount, say $500 a month, the loss in productivity at the lower end would be substantial, to the point wherein we'd see large swaths of value evaporated, the cost of labour would rise significantly and incentive structures would start failing. If we're talking just 'economic incentives' than probably just better taxation at the higher (getting rid of loopholes and higher rates on the ultra-rich), and a bump in mimimum wage would make a big difference because the allocation of that 'extra capital focused on the lower end' would still have some market efficiency and it would be oriented towards productivity. That - and basic, communitarian social measures would work. I believe UBI is like Crtypo or Bitcon - utopian solution that fails for fairly obvious reasons, like a kind of 'solve the equation' thinking that we technical people have that just doesn't work once you account for the more obvious social features of society. I don't think there are any magic solutions. We have to raise our kids well, provide some kind of quasi-level playing ground, and accept some people will fall of the edge and have some way to help them and to try to minimize that.
ClumsyPilot 5y ago
"but it's far more effective to have people work on doing things of value" Are people who produce alcohol, cigarets, runs casinos and homeopathy clinics or lobby politicians in behalf of oil companies 'doing things of value'?