5 ms·

> I think Karpathy will be fired this year if his team can't achieve at least L4. Ah so Karpathy will be fired this year. Because they're not reaching L4. FSD

> I think Karpathy will be fired this year if his team can't achieve at least L4. Ah so Karpathy will be fired this year. Because they're not reaching L4. FSD isn't even L3 yet.

waffle_maniac 5y ago
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.” -- Elon Musk He set the milestone.
- detaro 5y ago
  He told investors the same thing last year. Elon milestones mean nothing.
- yupper32 5y ago
  He's said that every year since 2014: https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-cars https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-...
- umeshunni 5y ago
  What comes first? Tesla FSD or the year of the Linux Desktop
ghaff 5y ago
I do expect at least some companies will hit L4 within the decade(?) but it's going to be under limited conditions that won't include urban driving. Which could actually be a very useful capability but isn't the "don't own a car" future that some really are focused on. ------ Level 4 _ High Automation System capability: The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area. • Driver involvement: In a shared car restricted to a defined area, there may not be any. But in a privately owned Level 4 car, the driver might manage all driving duties on surface streets then become a passenger as the car enters a highway. Example: Google’s now-defunct Firefly pod-car prototype, which had neither pedals nor a steering wheel and was restricted to a top speed of 25 mph.
- yupper32 5y ago
  Oh sure, L4 within the decade for companies other than Tesla, totally doable. You could argue Waymo and Cruise are already there with geo limitations. But Tesla within a year with no lidar? Yeah, no. Not happening.
- snotrockets 5y ago
  Achieving the “don't own a car” future doesn't require automation, as much as urbanization. No car technology would help reduce the climate crisis we're facing, unless that technology eliminates private transit (as in rides not shared by multiple people, not as in private ownership of said transit)
  - vidarh 5y ago
    As someone without a drivers license or a car, automation would still be wildly useful in driving down the cost of occasional journeys to locations inconvenient to serve with public transport to a point where it makes living without a car an option for more people. You're right, though, that the challenge is that it also makes it easier for everyone to opt for cars over mass transit.
- xp84 5y ago
  > "driver might manage all driving duties on surface streets then become a passenger as the car enters a highway." This is the kind of setup I can't wrap my head around. The car might "require" you to take over when you exit the highway, but it can't exactly "make" you. If you fall asleep on the freeway and the car isn't willing/able to drive at the end of your journey, or in edge cases if you were to pass out, etc. what does it do when it gets to your designated exit, or to the final exit of a designated highway? Are there going to be a bunch of cars all stacked up with flashers on the shoulder by every off-ramp waiting for their people to wake up / quit playing on their phones and engage manual mode?
  - zaptrem 5y ago
    Pull into breakdown lane.

> I think Karpathy will be fired this year if his team can't achieve at least L4. Ah so Karpathy will be fired this year. Because they're not reaching L4. FSD isn't even L3 yet.

waffle_maniac 5y ago

“I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than human this year. I would be shocked.” -- Elon Musk He set the milestone.

detaro 5y ago
He told investors the same thing last year. Elon milestones mean nothing.
yupper32 5y ago
He's said that every year since 2014: https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-cars https://futurism.com/video-elon-musk-promising-self-driving-...
umeshunni 5y ago
What comes first? Tesla FSD or the year of the Linux Desktop

ghaff 5y ago

I do expect at least some companies will hit L4 within the decade(?) but it's going to be under limited conditions that won't include urban driving. Which could actually be a very useful capability but isn't the "don't own a car" future that some really are focused on. ------ Level 4 _ High Automation System capability: The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area. • Driver involvement: In a shared car restricted to a defined area, there may not be any. But in a privately owned Level 4 car, the driver might manage all driving duties on surface streets then become a passenger as the car enters a highway. Example: Google’s now-defunct Firefly pod-car prototype, which had neither pedals nor a steering wheel and was restricted to a top speed of 25 mph.

yupper32 5y ago
Oh sure, L4 within the decade for companies other than Tesla, totally doable. You could argue Waymo and Cruise are already there with geo limitations. But Tesla within a year with no lidar? Yeah, no. Not happening.
snotrockets 5y ago
Achieving the “don't own a car” future doesn't require automation, as much as urbanization. No car technology would help reduce the climate crisis we're facing, unless that technology eliminates private transit (as in rides not shared by multiple people, not as in private ownership of said transit)
- vidarh 5y ago
  As someone without a drivers license or a car, automation would still be wildly useful in driving down the cost of occasional journeys to locations inconvenient to serve with public transport to a point where it makes living without a car an option for more people. You're right, though, that the challenge is that it also makes it easier for everyone to opt for cars over mass transit.
xp84 5y ago
> "driver might manage all driving duties on surface streets then become a passenger as the car enters a highway." This is the kind of setup I can't wrap my head around. The car might "require" you to take over when you exit the highway, but it can't exactly "make" you. If you fall asleep on the freeway and the car isn't willing/able to drive at the end of your journey, or in edge cases if you were to pass out, etc. what does it do when it gets to your designated exit, or to the final exit of a designated highway? Are there going to be a bunch of cars all stacked up with flashers on the shoulder by every off-ramp waiting for their people to wake up / quit playing on their phones and engage manual mode?
- zaptrem 5y ago
  Pull into breakdown lane.