5 ms·

>" My best guess is the long term solution (if there is ever one attempted) will be more related to why people are motivated to launch rockets at their neighbou

by nickff 5y ago

>" My best guess is the long term solution (if there is ever one attempted) will be more related to why people are motivated to launch rockets at their neighbours." The problem is that the Palestinians are a heterogeneous group. Even if the Palestinian government makes a 'peace' deal with the Israelis, other Palestinians opposed to the deal can 'break' it by shooting off a few cheap rockets. Further complicating the issue, there are outside parties (such as the Iranians) who have a vested interest in preventing a lasting peace (in order to preserve their influence both in Palestine and in Lebanon).

deleted 5y ago
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jimnotgym 5y ago
> other Palestinians opposed to the deal can 'break' it Only if Isreal reacts by declaring the peace deal with one group dead because another group fired rockets. It takes two to tango, as they say. If a gunman from Canada fired into the USA, the USA is unlikely to consider it a declaration of war and start nuking Canada!
- flyinglizard 5y ago
  There never been a common Palestinian leadership or universally accepted institutes, and this only became worse since 2006 Gaza withdrawal by Israel.
- nickff 5y ago
  >"Only if Isreal reacts by declaring the peace deal with one group dead because another group fired rockets. It takes two to tango, as they say." This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, it could be that the Palestinian government was actually responsible for shooting off the rockets, but were scapegoating someone else for political reasons (the internal and external messaging are very different things, and it's hard to figure out the truth). Second, 'authority' is not unified in Palestine, and a government may be composed of groups which only agree on some policies, and have members have differing objectives and strategies. Overall, if the Palestinians fail to stop rocket and mortar attacks, the only logical response for Israel is to blame their government. If Canadians were attacking the USA repeatedly and it seemed likely that the attacks were being organized by a political party which was a member of the governing coalition, I think the USA would have no option but to blame the government.
  - jimnotgym 5y ago
    > attacks were being organized by a political party which was a member of the governing coalition, I think the USA would have no option but to blame the government. This is not the same as the point i was replying to. That point was that even if Israel made peace with the government a seperatist entity could still fire rockets. So no we are not talking about the governing coalition.
  - skinnymuch 5y ago
    The governing authority is unimportant in this situation. The IDF is not going to be happy with splinter groups of any size shooting weapons either. Would they not react similar to how they have?
- bawolff 5y ago
  > If a gunman from Canada fired into the USA, the USA is unlikely to consider it a declaration of war and start nuking Canada! If the gunman had ties to the de-facto government and the government was unwilling/unable to arrest the gunman, i think it is likely they would. After all, wasn't that what happened with 9/11?
  - 876468723 5y ago
    A US border patrol agent fired into Mexico and killed a child. The US protected the agent, and Mexico responded with a strongly worded letter[0]. I don't see any reason to believe the US would have responded with more than that either if the roles had been reversed. Most governments are perfectly capable of avoiding escalations that will lead to wars they don't want. The wars following 9/11 were wars the US government wanted and would have gotten with or without 9/11. [0]: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-51643636 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-51643636
  - skinnymuch 5y ago
    As the other comment responded to you, I'll add on. That isn't what happened with 9/11. We didn't touch Saudi Arabia or any Al Qaeda strongholds. We went after Afghanistan and the Taliban. Soon after, Iraq. During that mid 00s time period, polls showed a strong minority if not majority of Americans believed Iraq had something to do with 9/11.

by nickff 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

jimnotgym 5y ago

> other Palestinians opposed to the deal can 'break' it Only if Isreal reacts by declaring the peace deal with one group dead because another group fired rockets. It takes two to tango, as they say. If a gunman from Canada fired into the USA, the USA is unlikely to consider it a declaration of war and start nuking Canada!

flyinglizard 5y ago
There never been a common Palestinian leadership or universally accepted institutes, and this only became worse since 2006 Gaza withdrawal by Israel.
nickff 5y ago
>"Only if Isreal reacts by declaring the peace deal with one group dead because another group fired rockets. It takes two to tango, as they say." This is problematic for a number of reasons. First, it could be that the Palestinian government was actually responsible for shooting off the rockets, but were scapegoating someone else for political reasons (the internal and external messaging are very different things, and it's hard to figure out the truth). Second, 'authority' is not unified in Palestine, and a government may be composed of groups which only agree on some policies, and have members have differing objectives and strategies. Overall, if the Palestinians fail to stop rocket and mortar attacks, the only logical response for Israel is to blame their government. If Canadians were attacking the USA repeatedly and it seemed likely that the attacks were being organized by a political party which was a member of the governing coalition, I think the USA would have no option but to blame the government.
- jimnotgym 5y ago
  > attacks were being organized by a political party which was a member of the governing coalition, I think the USA would have no option but to blame the government. This is not the same as the point i was replying to. That point was that even if Israel made peace with the government a seperatist entity could still fire rockets. So no we are not talking about the governing coalition.
- skinnymuch 5y ago
  The governing authority is unimportant in this situation. The IDF is not going to be happy with splinter groups of any size shooting weapons either. Would they not react similar to how they have?
bawolff 5y ago
> If a gunman from Canada fired into the USA, the USA is unlikely to consider it a declaration of war and start nuking Canada! If the gunman had ties to the de-facto government and the government was unwilling/unable to arrest the gunman, i think it is likely they would. After all, wasn't that what happened with 9/11?
- 876468723 5y ago
  A US border patrol agent fired into Mexico and killed a child. The US protected the agent, and Mexico responded with a strongly worded letter[0]. I don't see any reason to believe the US would have responded with more than that either if the roles had been reversed. Most governments are perfectly capable of avoiding escalations that will lead to wars they don't want. The wars following 9/11 were wars the US government wanted and would have gotten with or without 9/11. [0]: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-51643636 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-51643636
- skinnymuch 5y ago
  As the other comment responded to you, I'll add on. That isn't what happened with 9/11. We didn't touch Saudi Arabia or any Al Qaeda strongholds. We went after Afghanistan and the Taliban. Soon after, Iraq. During that mid 00s time period, polls showed a strong minority if not majority of Americans believed Iraq had something to do with 9/11.