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There are a bunch of factors and implications from the piece, which I had hoped they'd go into. But some of the more obvious implications which are often more o
by potatolicious 5y ago
There are a bunch of factors and implications from the piece, which I had hoped they'd go into. But some of the more obvious implications which are often more organizational than they have to do with the data per se:
- the data you are collecting may not include factors that are consequential to outcomes. Treating these unmeasured factors as inconsequential is hazardous. The piece specifically mentions this effect. This effect is not a surprise but yet many organizations fall into this trap so it seems to be worth mentioning.
- the difficulty of measuring some factors will result in their exclusion from the dataset. Some things are intrinsically hard to measure, and many organizations will as a result refuse to measure them, and make decisions without them. There needs to be a conscious and active process organizationally to resist this and find effective ways of measuring them.
- the difficulty of measuring some factors will result in easier but less useful proxies being used in their place. Same as above just with a somewhat different outcome. Organizations are often blind to this happening as they come to believe the proxy is as good as the real measure (or sometimes even that the proxy is the measure). A good industry example of this is clickthrough rates being treated synonymously with audience interest or content quality.
And a point I wish the piece made but did not:
- measuring something does not grant automatic understanding of the phenomenon and gives you no predictive power. It's one thing to quantifiably know the blue button gets more clicks than the green button, but that grants you no insight into why. Many tech companies fall into this trap - where despite investing heavily in experimentation their modeling of the product space doesn't improve over time, since they fail to take the step to convert observation to generalizable hypotheses that improve their model for the product and market.
This last effect IMO is huge in our industry, and is why the same low-level experiments are being re-done over and over again. This creates more product churn and reduces your product velocity - since the lack of proven product models means you're mostly flying blind and using ex-post-facto experimentation on live users to figure out what to do.
Experimenting on button colors is all well and good, but the end result of that data should be a color theory that explains what colors to use when, not forever A/B testing every single button color for the rest of time.