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There are no blackouts in Europe. There's no energy shortage. This is not Texas. There's a cost problem, however. With gas specifically. And that reflects in th
by jillesvangurp 5y ago
There are no blackouts in Europe. There's no energy shortage. This is not Texas. There's a cost problem, however. With gas specifically. And that reflects in the electricity prices currently because there are quite a few gas plants.
Until recently, nuclear was the undisputed king of cost. There was nothing more expensive in the market. And that's before you count the cost of long term storage, security, and decades of government subsidies. I guess, for this year it might look quite alright compared to gas. But that is probably a temporary effect before it goes back to its undisputed status as being the most costly thing in the market.
Replacing an expensive thing with an even more expensive thing is not a solution to reducing cost. It doesn't make sense. Europe needs cheap power, not expensive power. And it's getting plenty of that from renewables. It's far ahead of most other places in the world in terms of deploying wind and other renewables.
The nuclear phase down in Germany is actually happening without any disruptions to energy supply. The grid seems plenty resilient (again, rolling blackouts are not a thing here). Also, there's a healthy growth of other capacity and it's a very competitive market with lots of innovative companies making lots of money.
Nuclear was always a relatively minor part of the energy economy in Germany. We're talking about some 20GW of capacity in total of which some 8(?) GW remains which is on track to disappear later this year. Compared to the new capacity that has been added in (mainly) wind and solar form since the nuclear phase out started 12 years ago that is nothing. About 3x the amount of nuclear capacity Germany ever had was added in wind energy alone since then. Probably in the next few years more will come online than Germany ever had in nuclear capacity. People probably have more solar on their roofs than ever existed in nuclear capacity. That was growing at a pace of almost 0.5GW per month last summer apparently.
The reasons electricity prices are high is because the EU is overly dependent on natural gas, which until recently was vastly cheaper than nuclear (and coal plants). The current geo-political situation with particularly Russia is disrupting oil and gas prices. Not because there is a shortage but because Russia is trying to pressurize the EU to do what it wants. The cheapest solution to that is diplomacy. And given that apparently gas prices dropped 11% or so after Russia kindly started providing gas through Ukranian pipelines again, that seems to be working.
The likely long term effect will be an acceleration of replacing gas with other things. That was already happening anyway. Higher prices will make it happen faster.
- elric 5y ago> The likely long term effect will be an acceleration of replacing gas with other things. That was already happening anyway. Higher prices will make it happen faster. I'm still waiting for a practical alternative to natural gas for small housing units (apartments, or just small houses without gardens). Heating water with heat pumps is impractical unless you have a lot of space. My combined hot water/central heating heater is the size of a large microwave oven. If I can replace it with something similarly sized, I will. Until that's possible, I'm afraid I'm stuck with gas.
- rekoil 5y agoYou don't do centrally heated water in apartments over there? I don't think I've seen anything else here in Sweden. We actually buy heated water from the grid in my housing cooperative, but a lot of them have "downhole heat exchangers"* installed and produce their own centrally heated water circuit, which is also common for villas over here. *: called bergvärme in Swedish, I just looked up the Swedish wikipedia article and clicked English so I don't know if this is the right term
- phicoh 5y agoIn The Netherlands, more than 90% of all homes is heated using natural gas. Part of that is historical, but also cooking on natural gas was for a long time the best solution. So if you run natural gas to every home anyhow, there is little reason to have a separate hot water distribution system.
- _ph_ 5y agoOf course, in Germany most houses have central heating and central hot water production in a room in the basement. A lot of them even have large oil tanks which could be removed for additional space. There are a few old Buildings from the 50ies, which still have gas heating in the appartments, but they are relatively rare.
- elric 5y agoWe don't, no. Some older (and often very large) buildings here in Belgium do, but most apartments have individual gas heaters. Some very new constructions rely on district heating, but that's only feasible if there's a source of waste heat nearby (some kind of factory, usually). I doubt we have more than 50 such constructions in the entire country.