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Oh! You might like the Web3 ecosystem! In the Web3 ecosystem (in this context that means Ethereum and Ethereum Virtual Machine compatible, popularized by a lib

Oh! You might like the Web3 ecosystem! In the Web3 ecosystem (in this context that means Ethereum and Ethereum Virtual Machine compatible, popularized by a library called web3.js), people fork the current state of the blockchain to localhost, this allows you to test your transaction with many iterations to see if it can push the chain/contract to a subsequent valid state, if successful your code switches back to the main network (mainnet) and deploys the transaction This is perfect for bets because you get to know in advance if the inefficiency you discovered will go through. Many contracts to interact with are black boxes that could have code to limit amounts, so you get to see a few split seconds in advance and can rapidly rule out that opportunity towards another one. Brownie is a good library for this.

brandonmenc 5y ago
I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not, but I'll call you when my bookie puts his contract on the the blockchain.
- vmception 5y ago
  not sarcasm, eventually nuanced web3 related posts will be the frequent front page articles, instead of hot takes about the parts not fulfilling their purpose and pretending its an irreconcilable issue with the concept for sports betting and prediction markets, the main limitation is the size of the bets possible, which is pretty boring after 5 figures so even if your bookie was pointing their oracle (api results) to a blockchain to dictate payout conditions of a contract, its still about the size of the pool based on other participants, which would probably be limited, at least initially
  - brandonmenc 5y ago
    How do you write a smart contract that knows the outcome of a game? Presumably this means reading the results from somewhere. What happens if the wrong outcome is published and then corrected later? > which is pretty boring after 5 figures Why? What is the limitation? Also, is that five figures of participants, wagers, or payout? Does that five figure limitation ever change? A five figure limitation on payout dollars is too limiting today for sports betting. Definitely after a decade or two of inflation.
    - vmception 5y ago
      The smart contract gets its state updated by trusted external APIs, in that ecosystem they are called oracles. So they would use the same one they use in their web2 system, just write the results onchain instead of just in their database or just on a tv. And yes the low side of the market is one of the reasons why people start trading in capital markets, other ways to make money with bets are too limiting even if you find an edge. There are usually a couple places around the world with higher amounts possible.
      - brandonmenc 5y ago
        Again, what happens if the oracle gets it wrong? The problem I have with this scenario re: sports betting is that it decouples the trust of scoring games and paying out bets - which is not a "feature" for bettors. If I'm using a reputable, "centralized" sports book, they have a reputation at stake. They have more of an incentive to accurately score games than a third party oracle. If they pay out in error, they are likely legally required to eat the loss and pay the true winners. None of that is enhanced by web3 if sports betting is legal and regulated.
        latchkey 5y ago
        Check out chainlink ( https://chain.link/ https://chain.link/ ). Effectively, third parties are incentivized to run oracles which provide the data, and they all have to come to a quorum.
        brandonmenc 5y ago
        Thanks. I will look at this.
        vmception 5y ago
        And there are plenty of other competitors to chainlink too
uwuuwuuwu 5y ago
This won't work as the inefficency you found will be found & exploited by generalized frontrunners when you submit it to the mempool (or any transaction that unconditionally generates profit with the current chain state), running these strats now requires cooperating with/bribing miners (as they get to choose which frontrunner won this block).
- vmception 5y ago
  Then bribe the miners Caring about that reality is below my line But with bribery you can skip the mempool these days

brandonmenc 5y ago

I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not, but I'll call you when my bookie puts his contract on the the blockchain.

vmception 5y ago
not sarcasm, eventually nuanced web3 related posts will be the frequent front page articles, instead of hot takes about the parts not fulfilling their purpose and pretending its an irreconcilable issue with the concept for sports betting and prediction markets, the main limitation is the size of the bets possible, which is pretty boring after 5 figures so even if your bookie was pointing their oracle (api results) to a blockchain to dictate payout conditions of a contract, its still about the size of the pool based on other participants, which would probably be limited, at least initially
- brandonmenc 5y ago
  How do you write a smart contract that knows the outcome of a game? Presumably this means reading the results from somewhere. What happens if the wrong outcome is published and then corrected later? > which is pretty boring after 5 figures Why? What is the limitation? Also, is that five figures of participants, wagers, or payout? Does that five figure limitation ever change? A five figure limitation on payout dollars is too limiting today for sports betting. Definitely after a decade or two of inflation.
  - vmception 5y ago
    The smart contract gets its state updated by trusted external APIs, in that ecosystem they are called oracles. So they would use the same one they use in their web2 system, just write the results onchain instead of just in their database or just on a tv. And yes the low side of the market is one of the reasons why people start trading in capital markets, other ways to make money with bets are too limiting even if you find an edge. There are usually a couple places around the world with higher amounts possible.
    - brandonmenc 5y ago
      Again, what happens if the oracle gets it wrong? The problem I have with this scenario re: sports betting is that it decouples the trust of scoring games and paying out bets - which is not a "feature" for bettors. If I'm using a reputable, "centralized" sports book, they have a reputation at stake. They have more of an incentive to accurately score games than a third party oracle. If they pay out in error, they are likely legally required to eat the loss and pay the true winners. None of that is enhanced by web3 if sports betting is legal and regulated.
      - latchkey 5y ago
        Check out chainlink ( https://chain.link/ https://chain.link/ ). Effectively, third parties are incentivized to run oracles which provide the data, and they all have to come to a quorum.
        brandonmenc 5y ago
        Thanks. I will look at this.
        vmception 5y ago
        And there are plenty of other competitors to chainlink too

uwuuwuuwu 5y ago

This won't work as the inefficency you found will be found & exploited by generalized frontrunners when you submit it to the mempool (or any transaction that unconditionally generates profit with the current chain state), running these strats now requires cooperating with/bribing miners (as they get to choose which frontrunner won this block).

vmception 5y ago
Then bribe the miners Caring about that reality is below my line But with bribery you can skip the mempool these days