2 ms·
I've hated Intel for a nearly a decade leading up to the Pandemic (My last intel system was an i7-3960x). Since the beginning of this chip shortage supply chai
by tgtweak 5y ago
I've hated Intel for a nearly a decade leading up to the Pandemic (My last intel system was an i7-3960x). Since the beginning of this chip shortage supply chain nightmare however, I've become very bullish on Intel. They are one of the rare US companies that have retained the knowledge to build and operate their own competitive fabs.
That is something that AMD, Nvidia and several others have left in favor of consolidation (TMSC, Samsung) and specialization - much to their benefit commercially (and at the expense of Intel).
As there are renewed reality checks on the pitfalls of having a critical fundamental supply chain epicenter outside of your realm of influence (Talking from the perspective of the US/EU here), I expect companies that can build and operate fabs on US and European soil will have renewed support from federal, state and capital markets. My hope is that it is not a passing fad and that it will carry on in perpetuity. I hope that it is competitive from a cost and performance perspective.
Also, in spite of that, Intel has also decided they will use TSMC's next gen process (3nm) as a backfill while they catch up and build out their own fab roadmap. That decision is exactly the watershed moment where AMD started taking off, in terms of performance and efficiency on their own CPU and GPUs (the spinning out of Global Foundry and shift to TSMC's manufacturing), where they started taking leads in markets that they hadn't seen for 15 years. It was the right decision at the time, and it remains so - from a purely financial/technological perspective.
The fact Intel's CPUs (raptor lake) and upcoming GPUs (Arc), made on a 3-year old lithography process, can compete with AMD's latest on TSMC's cutting edge is pretty respectable. When/If Intel finally gets access to a process that leapfrogs them ahead nearly 4 years... that kind of generational jump will hopefully be quite remarkable.
So, as much as I hated Intel, they seem to be the best bet for truly competitive fabs outside of the 750km radius circle they all currently reside in beside the East China Sea.
Edit: Yes I'm aware that TSMC has been talking about building fabs in the US/EU for a while now but really, it's been all talk for the last 3 years and feels like a pony show vs a genuine desire to build out the region and be competitive. The matter of where a company's chain of command and head office sits is nontrivial from a de-risking perspective.
- onepointsixC 5y agoI most certainly shared your dislike of intel over the stagnation of CPU's in the past 6 years. But I've come to appreciate more that Intel indeed is the last western player in leading node fabs. Pat Gelsinger has inspired much hope for me in Intel making a come back and focusing on the right things.
- tgtweak 5y agoAgreed - he also put some serious money ($1BN) on the table for talent (both existing and new) and that is really where things get better. Their latest CPUs are excellent, and, perhaps critically, available. I'm not hearing any more news about fab delays or cultural plagues and Gelsinger feels like the rightful successor to Grove. They have a lot of cash on hand as well - about $35BN - which they've been building up over the last few years (probably saving on fab investments, ironically). If there is a market crash, they will be scooping up companies and talent left and right. AMD has about $3bn, for comparison sake (Nvidia has $20bn but it's likely unspent ARMbucks). If the congress approves this $52BN fund for US chip making (CHIPS for America Act), a big chunk of that is going straight to Intel for domestic fabs.