4 ms·
True, but improvement on what? There's, let's say, doubling capacity (without doubling mass), doubling performance (discharge, without fire hazard), doubling ho
by Keyframe 5y ago
True, but improvement on what? There's, let's say, doubling capacity (without doubling mass), doubling performance (discharge, without fire hazard), doubling how long it can hold a charge (without doubling thermals), doubling longevity (without doubling down on hazard materials)... Just of top of my head. Chemistry is hard, looks like it. What's the average doubling of any of these factors we've seen over the years? 10-20 years?
- derriz 5y agoEnergy density has at least doubled in the last 20 years. See figure 8 in [1]. And it's easy to overlook the most important factor for general applications - price - where the declines are much more dramatic. People complain about the lack of progress with batteries but we've observed that EV range has doubled in 8 years. I see no reason that range wouldn't double again in the next 8 years - and I see plenty of reasons for that to happen. [1] https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/ee/d0ee02681f https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/ee/d0ee0268...
- jillesvangurp 5y agoIndeed. The first Nissan Leaf had a 20 kwh battery in 2010. The latest model you can get in a 40kwh and a 60kwh variant. And you can upgrade the battery in that original one with a 40kwh one that is a drop in replacement for the original one. The next ten years are going to be interesting. Assuming nothing will change seems more foolish than most other predictions. IMHO 2x capacity improvement is pretty much a done deal. There are multiple viable paths; it's just a matter of building and scaling production for this. 4x is very likely and 8x not unimaginable. More a question of when than if. 8x is probably going to take a while.