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I'm actually working on a tool to use data from the Glassnode API to possibly answer some of the questions. I'll be pushing it to Github at some point in the ne
by kkielhofner 5y ago
I'm actually working on a tool to use data from the Glassnode API to possibly answer some of the questions. I'll be pushing it to Github at some point in the near future.
What's interesting about public blockchain data (from a node directly or something like Glassnode) is that the transaction data is so readily available. We can easily analyze transactions and unique addresses. Therefore transaction rates and volumes, long with unique to/from addresses, allow for ready analysis of adoption across the entire chain. For example, Polygon has relatively low trade volume but is very popular for smart contracts (applications). Because of this the ATH high daily transaction count is roughly 9x Ethereum even though Ethereum is considered to be more "popular".
I don't have any better or more valid comparisons for blockchain than what I've presented in that rant. Certainly open to any suggestions. That said, I think there's probably a valid internet law that can be derived stating something like "A new technology paradigm either reaches 1 billion users inside of 13 years or becomes irrelevant" (with the web setting the benchmark at 1B in 13 yr).
Appreciate the feedback on image and title. Perhaps a little clickbaity but I feel the premise is original and I establish some bonafides immediately.
The web and mobile were absolutely hard tech. The majority of web users went from dialup ISPs to cable, DSL, etc. Many thousands of truck rolls, ditches dug, submarine cables laid, increasingly scalable servers, the C10k problem[1], fiber optical cabling and optical switching innovation, etc. The list is almost endless.
Mobile - remember upon the exclusive release of the iPhone on AT&T and the network practically collapsed in major cities[2]? The success of mobile depended on massive build out of additional cellular infrastructure, back hauls, new spectrum auctions, the sun-setting of analog TV broadcasts, etc. Look at the standards (and component standards) for 2G-5G. I'd say that alone makes it hard tech.
EVs are a really hard (potentially invalid) comparison if for no other reason than the average car on the road in the US is 12.1 years old[3]. I don't know how I would start looking at EV adoption for comparison with that thrown in the mix.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C10k_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C10k_problem
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/technology/companies/03att.html https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/technology/companies/03at...
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/cars-on-american-roads-keep-getting-older.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/cars-on-american-roads-keep-...
- magicjosh 5y agoCool! You've probably already seen it but Dune Analytics has some useful blockchain data analysis tools too. I hadn't heard of Glassnode before. Edit: thinking of other technology adoption curves. Faster than EVs but slower than web and mobile. Thinking of finance too. What's the adoption of NFCs/touchless payments/chips look like? What about the rise of microlending/lending club etc?
- kkielhofner 5y agoLooking at other technology adoption curves is interesting and difficult. Bitcoin (the "digital cash" vision) was released in 2009. It didn't register on Google Trends until 2011. This already isn't a good sign. Ethereum came along in 2015 and introduced the concept of the Ethereum Virtual Machine and smart contracts. Now "blockchain" is a bona fide platform where people can leverage Ethereum and the underlying blockchain network to build things. Another question - why did it take six years for blockchain technology to progress from digital cash to platform? Now seven years after that even when combining digital cash (payments), "store of value"/gambling (trading, speculation), and all things smart contract (NFTs, DAO, ENS, microlending, etc) there are still at best 100 million total users for all of these use cases combined.