4 ms·

I think you'd appreciate my rant covering much of the same history and making virtually identical points with some data to back it up: https://kkrants.com/bloc

I think you'd appreciate my rant covering much of the same history and making virtually identical points with some data to back it up: https://kkrants.com/blockchain-the-most-poorly-adopted-platform-in-recent-history-6f5d97f7d51f https://kkrants.com/blockchain-the-most-poorly-adopted-platf...

magicjosh 5y ago
Great write up! Added to my list here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30133374 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30133374 Agree with your assessment that 100 million is an upper bound. I am curious about a deeper analysis as well that involves defining what "real users" are and then seeing how many transactions/wallets meet that criteria. i.e. of that "100 million", how many of them are simply buying and hodling? How many have done a non-exchange transaction (i.e. bought a thing, not coins. Buying NFTs counts! Or a pizza, or buying software, or staking or something) The comparison to Diner's club is also relevant. 20 years from zero to 51% of all Americans. Just getting to your "Why has blockchain user adoption been so terrible and what can we do about it?" section and will edit after that. Edit: Well worth the read. If anything, the title and top image were a bit clickbaity, but the article itself was great, all the way through to the end. Overall, the key question you point to is "Why did the web grow 10x faster than blockchain? Facebook 15x, and mobile 35x faster?" I'm curious about this! Is there a recent technology that did grow at 10x over 13 years that we could learn from? Another way to look at this is blockchain is growing at 23% YOY over the last 13 years. What technologies should we compare it to? Just to pull on the thread, is blockchain more like "hard tech"? If so, that would be really odd since it's not "hard tech". What has EV growth been like? Here's a chart [1] from [2] that says about 17 million EVs have been sold since 2012. Let's call that 13 years for the sake of keeping the math the same, but the web grew 100x as fast. OK so cryptocurrency is growing about order of magnitude faster than EVs, but why is it slower than the web? What else develops at a speed that's 10x faster than the growth of EVs, but still slower than the web itself? [1] https://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/WW-K-6-2021.png https://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/WW-K-6... [2]
- kkielhofner 5y ago
  I'm actually working on a tool to use data from the Glassnode API to possibly answer some of the questions. I'll be pushing it to Github at some point in the near future. What's interesting about public blockchain data (from a node directly or something like Glassnode) is that the transaction data is so readily available. We can easily analyze transactions and unique addresses. Therefore transaction rates and volumes, long with unique to/from addresses, allow for ready analysis of adoption across the entire chain. For example, Polygon has relatively low trade volume but is very popular for smart contracts (applications). Because of this the ATH high daily transaction count is roughly 9x Ethereum even though Ethereum is considered to be more "popular". I don't have any better or more valid comparisons for blockchain than what I've presented in that rant. Certainly open to any suggestions. That said, I think there's probably a valid internet law that can be derived stating something like "A new technology paradigm either reaches 1 billion users inside of 13 years or becomes irrelevant" (with the web setting the benchmark at 1B in 13 yr). Appreciate the feedback on image and title. Perhaps a little clickbaity but I feel the premise is original and I establish some bonafides immediately. The web and mobile were absolutely hard tech. The majority of web users went from dialup ISPs to cable, DSL, etc. Many thousands of truck rolls, ditches dug, submarine cables laid, increasingly scalable servers, the C10k problem[1], fiber optical cabling and optical switching innovation, etc. The list is almost endless. Mobile - remember upon the exclusive release of the iPhone on AT&T and the network practically collapsed in major cities[2]? The success of mobile depended on massive build out of additional cellular infrastructure, back hauls, new spectrum auctions, the sun-setting of analog TV broadcasts, etc. Look at the standards (and component standards) for 2G-5G. I'd say that alone makes it hard tech. EVs are a really hard (potentially invalid) comparison if for no other reason than the average car on the road in the US is 12.1 years old[3]. I don't know how I would start looking at EV adoption for comparison with that thrown in the mix. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C10k_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C10k_problem [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/technology/companies/03att.html https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/technology/companies/03at... [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/cars-on-american-roads-keep-getting-older.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/cars-on-american-roads-keep-...
  - magicjosh 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
acdha 5y ago
Thanks, that's good to toss in things like Diner's Club and Facebook, too. I find it interesting that you're bullish about the space but seem to be one of the few people asking the most important question: why should anyone join? I'm a couple of years older than you and it's been really weird feeling like that's strangely absent — things like CompuServ, the web, social media, smartphones, etc. all had such clear answers for that that people would be asking for help signin up because they knew they wanted it because it'd help them do something (school, trading stocks, gaming, reaching customers, etc.) but weren't sure the best option or something like that. It's been really weird to me that the answer remains nonobvious. I'd be happy even if it was as simple as “we want to turn PayPal into a smoldering hole in the ground” because a) such a deserving company and b) anyone who hears it would know immediately whether it's something they'd like — and that means that people in the space would know they need to hit certain cost and ease of use thresholds.
- magicjosh 5y ago
  Yeah it's a weird vibe. Imagine if in the early CompuServ days the general person knew about it and thought it was a scam only for scammers, terrorists, and creeps. As a user, I find it fun to chat with other crypto peeps about what they're doing...but talking to the outside world seems challenging. I can't really explain how "CompuServechain" isn't just a waste of time...but I'm having fun so I just keep doing that. I got a site setup on IPFS and connected to a .eth domain! Maybe the difference is now people aren't coming to you for help with crypto, whereas maybe they were with CompuServe and smartphones? So you're playing a different role. Oh you might get a kick out of this index of all decentralized ENS websites: https://esteroids.eth.limo/#/ https://esteroids.eth.limo/#/ The only requirement I know is that it's directed through a .eth, so the site itself may be boring. But most sites in the index seem to be hosted on IPFS and some even ask for a wallet to have app functions.
  - kkielhofner 5y ago
    There were certainly people that thought the web was only for weirdos and nerds. I got bullied in school because I was on the web and playing with computers instead of playing sports, etc. Nerds weren't always cool. Life as a nerd got much easier when the money started flowing and it was completely obvious to EVERYONE we were taking over the world. Thanks for providing the link; the popular selection[1] is most interesting. The entire space has gone so meta (a little on the nose) most don't even realize it... Imagine if all the internet offered for the first 13 years of it's life was different ways to sell you more internet. That's what the entire space looks like at this point and this link is yet another example - there are maybe three instances of destinations that I could see being even remotely useful, interesting, or usable to anyone outside of the cryptosphere. I've been really excited about the space since at least 2017. After five years without a single "I can't live without this" moment that excitement has waned significantly. [1] https://esteroids.eth.limo/#/popular https://esteroids.eth.limo/#/popular

magicjosh 5y ago

Great write up! Added to my list here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30133374 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30133374 Agree with your assessment that 100 million is an upper bound. I am curious about a deeper analysis as well that involves defining what "real users" are and then seeing how many transactions/wallets meet that criteria. i.e. of that "100 million", how many of them are simply buying and hodling? How many have done a non-exchange transaction (i.e. bought a thing, not coins. Buying NFTs counts! Or a pizza, or buying software, or staking or something) The comparison to Diner's club is also relevant. 20 years from zero to 51% of all Americans. Just getting to your "Why has blockchain user adoption been so terrible and what can we do about it?" section and will edit after that. Edit: Well worth the read. If anything, the title and top image were a bit clickbaity, but the article itself was great, all the way through to the end. Overall, the key question you point to is "Why did the web grow 10x faster than blockchain? Facebook 15x, and mobile 35x faster?" I'm curious about this! Is there a recent technology that did grow at 10x over 13 years that we could learn from? Another way to look at this is blockchain is growing at 23% YOY over the last 13 years. What technologies should we compare it to? Just to pull on the thread, is blockchain more like "hard tech"? If so, that would be really odd since it's not "hard tech". What has EV growth been like? Here's a chart [1] from [2] that says about 17 million EVs have been sold since 2012. Let's call that 13 years for the sake of keeping the math the same, but the web grew 100x as fast. OK so cryptocurrency is growing about order of magnitude faster than EVs, but why is it slower than the web? What else develops at a speed that's 10x faster than the growth of EVs, but still slower than the web itself? [1] https://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/WW-K-6-2021.png https://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/WW-K-6... [2]

kkielhofner 5y ago
I'm actually working on a tool to use data from the Glassnode API to possibly answer some of the questions. I'll be pushing it to Github at some point in the near future. What's interesting about public blockchain data (from a node directly or something like Glassnode) is that the transaction data is so readily available. We can easily analyze transactions and unique addresses. Therefore transaction rates and volumes, long with unique to/from addresses, allow for ready analysis of adoption across the entire chain. For example, Polygon has relatively low trade volume but is very popular for smart contracts (applications). Because of this the ATH high daily transaction count is roughly 9x Ethereum even though Ethereum is considered to be more "popular". I don't have any better or more valid comparisons for blockchain than what I've presented in that rant. Certainly open to any suggestions. That said, I think there's probably a valid internet law that can be derived stating something like "A new technology paradigm either reaches 1 billion users inside of 13 years or becomes irrelevant" (with the web setting the benchmark at 1B in 13 yr). Appreciate the feedback on image and title. Perhaps a little clickbaity but I feel the premise is original and I establish some bonafides immediately. The web and mobile were absolutely hard tech. The majority of web users went from dialup ISPs to cable, DSL, etc. Many thousands of truck rolls, ditches dug, submarine cables laid, increasingly scalable servers, the C10k problem[1], fiber optical cabling and optical switching innovation, etc. The list is almost endless. Mobile - remember upon the exclusive release of the iPhone on AT&T and the network practically collapsed in major cities[2]? The success of mobile depended on massive build out of additional cellular infrastructure, back hauls, new spectrum auctions, the sun-setting of analog TV broadcasts, etc. Look at the standards (and component standards) for 2G-5G. I'd say that alone makes it hard tech. EVs are a really hard (potentially invalid) comparison if for no other reason than the average car on the road in the US is 12.1 years old[3]. I don't know how I would start looking at EV adoption for comparison with that thrown in the mix. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C10k_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C10k_problem [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/technology/companies/03att.html https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/technology/companies/03at... [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/cars-on-american-roads-keep-getting-older.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/28/cars-on-american-roads-keep-...
- magicjosh 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

acdha 5y ago

Thanks, that's good to toss in things like Diner's Club and Facebook, too. I find it interesting that you're bullish about the space but seem to be one of the few people asking the most important question: why should anyone join? I'm a couple of years older than you and it's been really weird feeling like that's strangely absent — things like CompuServ, the web, social media, smartphones, etc. all had such clear answers for that that people would be asking for help signin up because they knew they wanted it because it'd help them do something (school, trading stocks, gaming, reaching customers, etc.) but weren't sure the best option or something like that. It's been really weird to me that the answer remains nonobvious. I'd be happy even if it was as simple as “we want to turn PayPal into a smoldering hole in the ground” because a) such a deserving company and b) anyone who hears it would know immediately whether it's something they'd like — and that means that people in the space would know they need to hit certain cost and ease of use thresholds.

magicjosh 5y ago
Yeah it's a weird vibe. Imagine if in the early CompuServ days the general person knew about it and thought it was a scam only for scammers, terrorists, and creeps. As a user, I find it fun to chat with other crypto peeps about what they're doing...but talking to the outside world seems challenging. I can't really explain how "CompuServechain" isn't just a waste of time...but I'm having fun so I just keep doing that. I got a site setup on IPFS and connected to a .eth domain! Maybe the difference is now people aren't coming to you for help with crypto, whereas maybe they were with CompuServe and smartphones? So you're playing a different role. Oh you might get a kick out of this index of all decentralized ENS websites: https://esteroids.eth.limo/#/ https://esteroids.eth.limo/#/ The only requirement I know is that it's directed through a .eth, so the site itself may be boring. But most sites in the index seem to be hosted on IPFS and some even ask for a wallet to have app functions.
- kkielhofner 5y ago
  There were certainly people that thought the web was only for weirdos and nerds. I got bullied in school because I was on the web and playing with computers instead of playing sports, etc. Nerds weren't always cool. Life as a nerd got much easier when the money started flowing and it was completely obvious to EVERYONE we were taking over the world. Thanks for providing the link; the popular selection[1] is most interesting. The entire space has gone so meta (a little on the nose) most don't even realize it... Imagine if all the internet offered for the first 13 years of it's life was different ways to sell you more internet. That's what the entire space looks like at this point and this link is yet another example - there are maybe three instances of destinations that I could see being even remotely useful, interesting, or usable to anyone outside of the cryptosphere. I've been really excited about the space since at least 2017. After five years without a single "I can't live without this" moment that excitement has waned significantly. [1] https://esteroids.eth.limo/#/popular https://esteroids.eth.limo/#/popular