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Clifford Stoll should write a new book dismissing cryptocurrencies and NFTs, etc. You know, like he did for home computers and the internet in Silicon Snake Oi

by teddyh 5y ago

Clifford Stoll should write a new book dismissing cryptocurrencies and NFTs, etc. You know, like he did for home computers and the internet in Silicon Snake Oil (1995).

acdha 5y ago
Stoll wrote that book in 1995 after the internet was noticeably changing the world. People were flocking to sign up with ISPs; businesses were seeing the benefits for product information, sales, support; people were using the web to research and book travel plans; email and chat were becoming quite popular (people had been meeting and getting married online since the BBS era); etc. It’s also important to remember that computers cost a lot more, network connectivity was even pricier, the software was primitive, and all three were incredibly slow by modern standards. In contrast, we’re over a decade into the cryptocurrency push and the primary marketing hook is “buy now so you can sell it to someone else” with nothing anyone would miss if it disappeared. Unlike the internet, it’s been globally available to most of the world so you’d expect uptake to be faster rather than slower.
- koonsolo 5y ago
  Your claim that the internet was noticable changing the world in 1995 is not accurate at all. For example, if you look at the history of Elon's Zip2, the success of an online yellow pages wasn't obvious. Quote itself: "“At that point, very few people were in the internet [business], so it was really a question of, ‘Is the internet going to succeed?’ Which we were huge believers in, and these guys were not.” " https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/elon-musk-pitched-the-head-of-yellow-pages-before-the-internet-boom.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/elon-musk-pitched-the-head-o... So basically in 1995, you had a lot of believers and non-believers. Exactly what crypto is today.
  - MattPalmer1086 5y ago
    In 1995, I don't recall a lot of people actively against the internet. It's true that most businesses didn't believe it was relevant to them.
    - koonsolo 5y ago
      In 1995, I didn't know anybody who had internet.
      - MattPalmer1086 5y ago
        I had access at work, but not at home.
    - kkielhofner 5y ago
      Look at the WHOIS registration dates for the internet domains of the Fortune 500 in 1996. Almost all businesses knew within a few years that it was valuable to them. Go on the Wayback Machine (starts in '96) and check out the various websites for General Electric, Toyota, GM, you name it. They were there. Here's a taste from the Fortune 500[1] in 1996: GM: gm.com - 1992-01-16T00:00:00Z Ford: ford.com - 1988-09-01T00:00:00Z Exxon Mobile: exxon.com - 1991-01-03T05:00:00Z Wal-Mart: walmart.com - 1995-02-23T00:00:00Z AT&T: att.net (among others) - 1993-12-13T00:00:00Z General Electric: ge.com - 1986-08-05T00:00:00Z Mobil: mobil.com - 1991-02-01T05:00:00+0000 Chrysler: chrysler.com - 1993-06-16T00:00:00Z Altria Group: 2000-03-14T21:05:01Z So there you have it - 9/10 of the most valuable companies in the world had a domain name and website by 1995 (the only one missing being a tobacco giant). I don't think I would say "most businesses didn't believe it was relevant to them". [1] https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_archive/full/1996/ https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_arc...
      - koonsolo 5y ago
        Look at all the big companies accepting crypto in 2022: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin/who-accepts/ https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin/who-accepts/ In 25 years, we can have a discussion of "Look it was obvious, all these big companies were accepting crypto in 2022". Edit: my point is not that crypto succcess is obvious, my point is that internet success wasn't obvious.
      - MattPalmer1086 5y ago
        Interesting, but big companies aren't most companies, so I'll stand by my assertion that most businesses didn't see the relevance at that point. There were only around 500 web servers globally by 1994.
  - twelve40 5y ago
    but... what is this stuff used for? the OP just gave you a ton of use cases for the Internet in 1995 which you ignored? > businesses were seeing the benefits for product information, sales, support; people were using the web to research and book travel plans; email and chat were becoming quite popular (people had been meeting and getting married online since the BBS era); etc For "crypto", it's... flipping coins to whoever pays more, doing illegal things and... apparently moving money to Argentina. Anything else?
    - koonsolo 5y ago
      Sorry to disappoint, but in 1995, almost nobody had any real benefit from email (except maybe some universities). If you think email was mainstream back then, your memory is playing tricks on you.
  - acdha 5y ago
    > Your claim that the internet was noticable changing the world in 1995 is not accurate at all. Look, I get that you need to find buyers for your tokens but lying to people who have first-hand experience is not the way to do that. I gave you a list of things real people were doing then, and it wasn’t even complete. For example, 1995 is the year RealPlayer came out of beta and you had adoption by major radio stations and NPR. Major news organizations like the BBC, Bloomberg, El Pais, etc. were starting to publish online. Amazon had launched the year before. Music fandom and downloads were picking up, lead by college students around the world tired of the mainstream selection by the record labels. The fact that the yellow pages guys weren’t keen on their traditional business model being disrupted isn’t surprising. That wasn’t uncommon back then, but that doesn’t mean that the people who built their replacements weren’t getting started and finding plenty of people interested in using new alternatives. The key difference is that cryptocurrency has taken a decade longer and has had almost no outside impact. Most of the things people are building are ways to spend or speculate on cryptocurrency, not doing anything you can’t already do or doing it better. If Bitcoin suddenly disappeared, no non-cryptocurrency business would be disrupted. Nobody who isn’t a speculator would notice a change in their daily life. Even porn sites barely use it, which you’d think would be popular given the US credit card processors’ crusade against naughty content. Here’s a list of websites started BEFORE 1995 - note that they’re not just people talking about building or selling websites but rather normal things people like as part of their lives which were made better by being on the web: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_websites_founded_before_1995 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_websites_founded_befor...
    - koonsolo 5y ago
      > If Bitcoin suddenly disappeared, no non-cryptocurrency business would be disrupted. The same could be said about internet in 1995.
      - acdha 5y ago
        No, it couldn’t have. I’ve given you a ton of examples of people using it for things other than selling internet access or software: all of those people went out of their way to get access because it let them do things they wanted to do, often buying expensive new computers to do so. The cryptocurrency world didn’t have anything close to those barriers to adoption but still hasn’t come up with a pitch for doing anything most people want to do. There’s no equivalent of the hobbyists sharing photos and tips, businesses communicating better with their customers, people reading the news from other countries, etc.
kkielhofner 5y ago
Anyone comparing cryptocurrencies, blockchain as an overall platform, etc to the internet should acknowledge a basic fact: At 13 years from release the web had a billion users. 13 years from release all blockchain networks combined have 100 million users at best. In an era with ubiquitous internet access, social media, mobile devices, etc new internet based platform adoption rates should always accelerate. For example in 13 years Facebook had 2 billion users. In the modern era blockchains have 1/20th the adoption rate of a social media site should tell you everything you need to know about the reality of this space - the average person doesn’t see any value in it other than speculative trading.
- magicjosh 5y ago
  When did the web "release"? Seems like you're placing it around...1990? Why not Arpanet (1971)?
  - ineedasername 5y ago
    >around... 1990 Yes, correct. Well, 1989. Or 1991 for public accessibility. arpanet is not the web.
  - acdha 5y ago
    The web left CERN in 1991, so it can't be earlier than that. The internet was earlier, but there are two other things to remember: in 1971, a computer cost as much as a house, filled a large room, and required a professional operator. The first microprocessors actually came on the market that year and it took time for people to build devices around them or for those devices to hit the mass market. When that happened, you were getting things like text interfaces and keyboards, tiny amounts of storage on cassettes or floppies, etc. Similarly, in the United States the phone company monopoly and expensive but slow modems meant you were looking at 300bps connectivity tying up an expensive phone line and communicating with someone outside of your immediate area was expensive per-minute charges. That got better but it really wasn't until the early 90s that GUIs were mainstream and it wasn't until the mid-90s that computer costs had come down enough to make them affordable to the average person. Similarly, modems were pretty slow and limited so the early web was held back by the fact that a lot of people would need 5 minutes to load a web page with a fullscreen 800x600 image. Demand for the web is what drove a lot of non-techies to buy a computer capable of running something like Windows 95, because they'd heard of things they could do on the web — whether that was educational research, getting software updates without waiting for floppy disks in the mail, following sports, connecting with other people who shared the same hobby, making travel plans, downloading porn, etc. the first web browsers and email clients were driving a lot of people to buy computers so they could use them. ISPs had sprung up all over the country and faster options like DSL and cable modems were game changers for the experience. This is a start contrast to blockchain technologies which were close to globally available on day one — even in poor countries, there was at least someone with a network-connected PC — but despite a much longer period of time still haven't found much demand because they don't improve the average person's life unless they enjoy speculating on their ability to resell tokens.

by teddyh 5y ago

Clifford Stoll should write a new book dismissing cryptocurrencies and NFTs, etc. You know, like he did for home computers and the internet in Silicon Snake Oil (1995).

acdha 5y ago

Stoll wrote that book in 1995 after the internet was noticeably changing the world. People were flocking to sign up with ISPs; businesses were seeing the benefits for product information, sales, support; people were using the web to research and book travel plans; email and chat were becoming quite popular (people had been meeting and getting married online since the BBS era); etc. It’s also important to remember that computers cost a lot more, network connectivity was even pricier, the software was primitive, and all three were incredibly slow by modern standards. In contrast, we’re over a decade into the cryptocurrency push and the primary marketing hook is “buy now so you can sell it to someone else” with nothing anyone would miss if it disappeared. Unlike the internet, it’s been globally available to most of the world so you’d expect uptake to be faster rather than slower.

koonsolo 5y ago
Your claim that the internet was noticable changing the world in 1995 is not accurate at all. For example, if you look at the history of Elon's Zip2, the success of an online yellow pages wasn't obvious. Quote itself: "“At that point, very few people were in the internet [business], so it was really a question of, ‘Is the internet going to succeed?’ Which we were huge believers in, and these guys were not.” " https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/elon-musk-pitched-the-head-of-yellow-pages-before-the-internet-boom.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/elon-musk-pitched-the-head-o... So basically in 1995, you had a lot of believers and non-believers. Exactly what crypto is today.
- MattPalmer1086 5y ago
  In 1995, I don't recall a lot of people actively against the internet. It's true that most businesses didn't believe it was relevant to them.
  - koonsolo 5y ago
    In 1995, I didn't know anybody who had internet.
    - MattPalmer1086 5y ago
      I had access at work, but not at home.
  - kkielhofner 5y ago
    Look at the WHOIS registration dates for the internet domains of the Fortune 500 in 1996. Almost all businesses knew within a few years that it was valuable to them. Go on the Wayback Machine (starts in '96) and check out the various websites for General Electric, Toyota, GM, you name it. They were there. Here's a taste from the Fortune 500[1] in 1996: GM: gm.com - 1992-01-16T00:00:00Z Ford: ford.com - 1988-09-01T00:00:00Z Exxon Mobile: exxon.com - 1991-01-03T05:00:00Z Wal-Mart: walmart.com - 1995-02-23T00:00:00Z AT&T: att.net (among others) - 1993-12-13T00:00:00Z General Electric: ge.com - 1986-08-05T00:00:00Z Mobil: mobil.com - 1991-02-01T05:00:00+0000 Chrysler: chrysler.com - 1993-06-16T00:00:00Z Altria Group: 2000-03-14T21:05:01Z So there you have it - 9/10 of the most valuable companies in the world had a domain name and website by 1995 (the only one missing being a tobacco giant). I don't think I would say "most businesses didn't believe it was relevant to them". [1] https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_archive/full/1996/ https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_arc...
    - koonsolo 5y ago
      Look at all the big companies accepting crypto in 2022: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin/who-accepts/ https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin/who-accepts/ In 25 years, we can have a discussion of "Look it was obvious, all these big companies were accepting crypto in 2022". Edit: my point is not that crypto succcess is obvious, my point is that internet success wasn't obvious.
    - MattPalmer1086 5y ago
      Interesting, but big companies aren't most companies, so I'll stand by my assertion that most businesses didn't see the relevance at that point. There were only around 500 web servers globally by 1994.
- twelve40 5y ago
  but... what is this stuff used for? the OP just gave you a ton of use cases for the Internet in 1995 which you ignored? > businesses were seeing the benefits for product information, sales, support; people were using the web to research and book travel plans; email and chat were becoming quite popular (people had been meeting and getting married online since the BBS era); etc For "crypto", it's... flipping coins to whoever pays more, doing illegal things and... apparently moving money to Argentina. Anything else?
  - koonsolo 5y ago
    Sorry to disappoint, but in 1995, almost nobody had any real benefit from email (except maybe some universities). If you think email was mainstream back then, your memory is playing tricks on you.
- acdha 5y ago
  > Your claim that the internet was noticable changing the world in 1995 is not accurate at all. Look, I get that you need to find buyers for your tokens but lying to people who have first-hand experience is not the way to do that. I gave you a list of things real people were doing then, and it wasn’t even complete. For example, 1995 is the year RealPlayer came out of beta and you had adoption by major radio stations and NPR. Major news organizations like the BBC, Bloomberg, El Pais, etc. were starting to publish online. Amazon had launched the year before. Music fandom and downloads were picking up, lead by college students around the world tired of the mainstream selection by the record labels. The fact that the yellow pages guys weren’t keen on their traditional business model being disrupted isn’t surprising. That wasn’t uncommon back then, but that doesn’t mean that the people who built their replacements weren’t getting started and finding plenty of people interested in using new alternatives. The key difference is that cryptocurrency has taken a decade longer and has had almost no outside impact. Most of the things people are building are ways to spend or speculate on cryptocurrency, not doing anything you can’t already do or doing it better. If Bitcoin suddenly disappeared, no non-cryptocurrency business would be disrupted. Nobody who isn’t a speculator would notice a change in their daily life. Even porn sites barely use it, which you’d think would be popular given the US credit card processors’ crusade against naughty content. Here’s a list of websites started BEFORE 1995 - note that they’re not just people talking about building or selling websites but rather normal things people like as part of their lives which were made better by being on the web: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_websites_founded_before_1995 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_websites_founded_befor...
  - koonsolo 5y ago
    > If Bitcoin suddenly disappeared, no non-cryptocurrency business would be disrupted. The same could be said about internet in 1995.
    - acdha 5y ago
      No, it couldn’t have. I’ve given you a ton of examples of people using it for things other than selling internet access or software: all of those people went out of their way to get access because it let them do things they wanted to do, often buying expensive new computers to do so. The cryptocurrency world didn’t have anything close to those barriers to adoption but still hasn’t come up with a pitch for doing anything most people want to do. There’s no equivalent of the hobbyists sharing photos and tips, businesses communicating better with their customers, people reading the news from other countries, etc.

kkielhofner 5y ago

Anyone comparing cryptocurrencies, blockchain as an overall platform, etc to the internet should acknowledge a basic fact: At 13 years from release the web had a billion users. 13 years from release all blockchain networks combined have 100 million users at best. In an era with ubiquitous internet access, social media, mobile devices, etc new internet based platform adoption rates should always accelerate. For example in 13 years Facebook had 2 billion users. In the modern era blockchains have 1/20th the adoption rate of a social media site should tell you everything you need to know about the reality of this space - the average person doesn’t see any value in it other than speculative trading.

magicjosh 5y ago
When did the web "release"? Seems like you're placing it around...1990? Why not Arpanet (1971)?
- ineedasername 5y ago
  >around... 1990 Yes, correct. Well, 1989. Or 1991 for public accessibility. arpanet is not the web.
- acdha 5y ago
  The web left CERN in 1991, so it can't be earlier than that. The internet was earlier, but there are two other things to remember: in 1971, a computer cost as much as a house, filled a large room, and required a professional operator. The first microprocessors actually came on the market that year and it took time for people to build devices around them or for those devices to hit the mass market. When that happened, you were getting things like text interfaces and keyboards, tiny amounts of storage on cassettes or floppies, etc. Similarly, in the United States the phone company monopoly and expensive but slow modems meant you were looking at 300bps connectivity tying up an expensive phone line and communicating with someone outside of your immediate area was expensive per-minute charges. That got better but it really wasn't until the early 90s that GUIs were mainstream and it wasn't until the mid-90s that computer costs had come down enough to make them affordable to the average person. Similarly, modems were pretty slow and limited so the early web was held back by the fact that a lot of people would need 5 minutes to load a web page with a fullscreen 800x600 image. Demand for the web is what drove a lot of non-techies to buy a computer capable of running something like Windows 95, because they'd heard of things they could do on the web — whether that was educational research, getting software updates without waiting for floppy disks in the mail, following sports, connecting with other people who shared the same hobby, making travel plans, downloading porn, etc. the first web browsers and email clients were driving a lot of people to buy computers so they could use them. ISPs had sprung up all over the country and faster options like DSL and cable modems were game changers for the experience. This is a start contrast to blockchain technologies which were close to globally available on day one — even in poor countries, there was at least someone with a network-connected PC — but despite a much longer period of time still haven't found much demand because they don't improve the average person's life unless they enjoy speculating on their ability to resell tokens.