3 ms·

What I often see omitted and think is just as important long term: recyclability, cycle life and cost. These will impact the resale value and the lifetime cost

by V__ 5y ago

What I often see omitted and think is just as important long term: recyclability, cycle life and cost. These will impact the resale value and the lifetime costs of the car. The second-hand market will be crucial when it comes to widespread EV adoption.

tonyedgecombe 5y ago
At the moment second-hand values seem to be holding up well, even for old Leafs. I suspect the problem is going to be the opposite, a lack of cheap cars for people with a tight budget. Right now I could buy a cheap car for £1000 and although it might be a bit grotty it would get me to and from a job. That end of the market might disappear completely.
- V__ 5y ago
  My hope is that public transport and bike infrastructure will catch up by that point. However, this might help in Europe, but I could see a real problem with the market vanishing in the U.S.
  - oblio 5y ago
    I appreciate your optimism, but if you look at a Youtube channel such as Not Just Bikes, you'll see that the scale of the problem is humongous. Most people in North America doesn't even realize that car infrastructure is a problem. First you need people to understand, then to accept the necessary changes and then you need the money and time to perform those changes. Even the Netherlands, the bike capital of the world, has a thriving car market, and North America is probably 30+ years behind the Netherlands, in the best US biking locations.
    - markvdb 5y ago
      From what I've seen of the US, the lag is more like 50 years and increasing because of "interesting" spatial planning. Look at Flanders (northern Belgium) and Germany for areas 30+ years behind the Netherlands.
    - V__ 5y ago
      That's sadly true. Not Just Bikes and their String Towns initiative is really eye-opening. A bit off-topic but I do wonder if covid and the current state of the economy will accelerate the debt crisis of small cities ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfQUOHlAocY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfQUOHlAocY ) and force a downsizing to a more reasonable infrastructure.
- oblio 5y ago
  I doubt it. After a while there's going to be a glut of vehicles, some will be known as lemons for whatever reason (sometimes it can be just looks) and their resale values will be low, various brands have already started producing cheap EVs (for example Dacia has an EV at around 20k in Europe, yes, it's crappy by HN standards but it's still an EV: https://en.media.dacia.com/news/all-new-dacia-spring-prices-france-for-the-most-affordable-electric-car-on-the-market-e905-989c5.html https://en.media.dacia.com/news/all-new-dacia-spring-prices-...), etc.
  - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    I wonder what the life of the battery is going to be in the Dacia and how much it will cost to replace. If in ten years it can only do 20 miles and a replacement is £5K then that car is leaving the market. The ICE equivalent will be fine as a cheap run around.
    - kwhitefoot 5y ago
      Why should the battery in the Dacia be so much worse than that in a Leaf or Tesla. Surely there can't be that much variation in battery quality within the major Western manufacturers (Dacia is a Renault subsidiary I think). My 2015 Model S 70D which has done over 160 thousand km seems to have pretty much the same range as it had when it was delivered (about 330 km) so if the decline is more or less linear from the start then the lifetime is actually rather longer than the manufacturers expected. Of course I suppose it is just possible that it will die on the day after the eight year warranty is over or perhaps drop to 70%! But how likely is that? And surely once there are a lot of old EVs on the road there will be a big market for replacement batteries and competition will drive the prices down.
      - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
        >Why should the battery in the Dacia be so much worse than that in a Leaf or Tesla. The Dacia doesn't have thermal battery management. The warranty is only 75K miles on the battery. It's already a small battery so there isn't much in reserve. The car is the cheapest EV on the market. Comparing it to one of the most expensive is ridiculous especially when we are talking about running cars on a tight budget.

by V__ 5y ago

tonyedgecombe 5y ago

At the moment second-hand values seem to be holding up well, even for old Leafs. I suspect the problem is going to be the opposite, a lack of cheap cars for people with a tight budget. Right now I could buy a cheap car for £1000 and although it might be a bit grotty it would get me to and from a job. That end of the market might disappear completely.

V__ 5y ago
My hope is that public transport and bike infrastructure will catch up by that point. However, this might help in Europe, but I could see a real problem with the market vanishing in the U.S.
- oblio 5y ago
  I appreciate your optimism, but if you look at a Youtube channel such as Not Just Bikes, you'll see that the scale of the problem is humongous. Most people in North America doesn't even realize that car infrastructure is a problem. First you need people to understand, then to accept the necessary changes and then you need the money and time to perform those changes. Even the Netherlands, the bike capital of the world, has a thriving car market, and North America is probably 30+ years behind the Netherlands, in the best US biking locations.
  - markvdb 5y ago
    From what I've seen of the US, the lag is more like 50 years and increasing because of "interesting" spatial planning. Look at Flanders (northern Belgium) and Germany for areas 30+ years behind the Netherlands.
  - V__ 5y ago
    That's sadly true. Not Just Bikes and their String Towns initiative is really eye-opening. A bit off-topic but I do wonder if covid and the current state of the economy will accelerate the debt crisis of small cities ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfQUOHlAocY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfQUOHlAocY ) and force a downsizing to a more reasonable infrastructure.
oblio 5y ago
I doubt it. After a while there's going to be a glut of vehicles, some will be known as lemons for whatever reason (sometimes it can be just looks) and their resale values will be low, various brands have already started producing cheap EVs (for example Dacia has an EV at around 20k in Europe, yes, it's crappy by HN standards but it's still an EV: https://en.media.dacia.com/news/all-new-dacia-spring-prices-france-for-the-most-affordable-electric-car-on-the-market-e905-989c5.html https://en.media.dacia.com/news/all-new-dacia-spring-prices-...), etc.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  I wonder what the life of the battery is going to be in the Dacia and how much it will cost to replace. If in ten years it can only do 20 miles and a replacement is £5K then that car is leaving the market. The ICE equivalent will be fine as a cheap run around.
  - kwhitefoot 5y ago
    Why should the battery in the Dacia be so much worse than that in a Leaf or Tesla. Surely there can't be that much variation in battery quality within the major Western manufacturers (Dacia is a Renault subsidiary I think). My 2015 Model S 70D which has done over 160 thousand km seems to have pretty much the same range as it had when it was delivered (about 330 km) so if the decline is more or less linear from the start then the lifetime is actually rather longer than the manufacturers expected. Of course I suppose it is just possible that it will die on the day after the eight year warranty is over or perhaps drop to 70%! But how likely is that? And surely once there are a lot of old EVs on the road there will be a big market for replacement batteries and competition will drive the prices down.
    - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
      >Why should the battery in the Dacia be so much worse than that in a Leaf or Tesla. The Dacia doesn't have thermal battery management. The warranty is only 75K miles on the battery. It's already a small battery so there isn't much in reserve. The car is the cheapest EV on the market. Comparing it to one of the most expensive is ridiculous especially when we are talking about running cars on a tight budget.