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I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a mod

I am as far from an inflation hawk as you can get. I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, e.g. don't pay people not working to piss off the French and Belgians: https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power/the-weimar-republic/invasion-of-the-ruhr/ https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power... Yet we did just that. People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went into cardiac arrest by every measure of actual productivity. Instead of giving people money to chase goods stuck in ports the government should have spent that money on building up infrastructure and have people out doors away from covid. Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s.

throw0101a 5y ago
> Instead of giving people money to chase goods stuck in ports the government should have spent that money on building up infrastructure and have people out doors away from covid. This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was. Further, the people staying at home were often in the service sector: retail, restaurants, etc. Even when the restrictions were lifted a bit, you can't simply take random people who were doing one job and throw them onto a construction site and expect them to be useful (never mind productive/efficient). The number of companies and people available at any given time to do this is at any particular instant of time is finite, and most were probably on a contract. Certainly over time people can shift careers, but that is not instantaneous change. Depending on the "infrastructure" you want to do/build, you need lead time to actually design what you want to build, do surveys, get permits, and order materials. And because of global supply chain issues, a lot of materials were in short supply: lumber being the most publicized, but shipping pallets were an issue as well (there was a good Odd Lots podcast episode on them), as were the obscure things such as truss plates. Maintaining infrastructure is a great idea, but you don't "just" do it. Outside of 'simply' tarmac repaving the surface of a road, most everything else takes a few months of planning.
- vsareto 5y ago
  You're right you don't just do go out and do that stuff, but it's been delayed by political forces for years. We could have been well past the initial stages by now.
- thrown_22 5y ago
  >This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was. Yes, and? All it would have taken was to call them vital workers, or whatever the local equivalent was, and they could have kept working. That was a political decision and covid still spread among vital workers. Adding construction would have changed very little in the grand scheme of things. As for the rest building isn't software design. Unless people start getting physically in the way of each other more people on a site means the project gets done faster. If nothing else the real tradies would appreciate having a gofer each.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    "Unless people start getting physically in the way of each other more people on a site means the project gets done faster." Have you worked construction? If they're clueless, then they will slow you down with mistakes and questions/training. Not to mention many parts of construction require skilled trades (electric, plumbing, carpentry, masonry, etc), some of which require licenses.
    - throw0101a 5y ago
      > Not to mention many parts of construction require skilled trades (electric, plumbing, carpentry, masonry, etc), some of which require licenses. There's smaller and smaller areas of construction that is unskilled nowadays AFAICT. Unless you're just there to lift stuff and/or literally dig ditches (which is often done with machines), there's not much that can be done by some rando off the street. Even the day labourers that are found around Home Depot (probably?) have areas of knowledge, even if it's just framing. Certainly some areas could be picked up fairly quickly (spreading/trowling and/or screeding concrete?), in most other areas there's some specialized knowledge. Especially if it has to meet code, which is getting more stringent over time. A YouTube channel of someone who does building inspections: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=326J5b_1ydI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=326J5b_1ydI * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD3Vo6WTsXA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD3Vo6WTsXA Quite a few subtle places that one can mess up, even if you're a licensed professional (e.g., electrician) and are supposed to know better.
nebula8804 5y ago
>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extinguish the rise of progressivism when the playbook is out in the open? They are probably 10 steps ahead of any populist movement. The left frequently cites FDR and how things turned around after the people had enough and were at the breaking point. They say its in the cusp of happening again. Yes that could happen again but with the rise of technology and big data, I can't possibly believe that the capitalist class hasn't used this ability to simulate every probable outcome to counteract this. I am reminded of the excitement I was feeling in the run up to Bernie almost clinching the presidential nomination. His campaign was firing on all cylinders and was just destroying everyone else in the race. I got a false sense of victory when I took seriously the crying that all the mainstream media pundits started to do after his stunning victory in Nevada. It was all a ruse in the end. At the last second before Super Tuesday (the day that would have cemented Sanders victory) the Democratic leadership(Obama and others) made a deal with Klobuchar and Buttigieg to drop out and side with Biden in a move that left the Sanders campaign with no time left to recover. I saw things like Universal Healthcare, stopping the MIC and other progressive goals literally crumble in my hands after that day. Looking back, I should have seen what happened to Jeremy Corybn in the UK and treated it as a canary in the coal mine. Now with Biden having done absolutely less than nothing, I feel as if at least half of the Millenial generation and some of Gen Z has been completely written off at this point. The oldest in this cohort is turning forty and there is no way for them to make up for lost gains in this corrupt rotten scenario. I'm really scared about the future. They are now gunning for the last stable career in the US (software engineering/IT) and while I am in my 30s and been in the industry for ~10 years now, I can't be reasonably sure that I can make it to the finish line of retirement without this career disappearing or being severely curtailed by automation/outsourcing/etc. I guess every generation has this fear.
- thrown_22 5y ago
  >The left frequently cites FDR and how things turned around after the people had enough and were at the breaking point. The New Deal did very little to stop the great depression until WWII started. People forget that everything in the New Deal was still too little too late and it was only fixed when the federal government debt was 20% of the US economy for 5 years between 1941 and 1946.
sqqqqrly 5y ago
So the "reason for doing this" was a conspiracy to discredit the left and Polosi, Schumer, Biden, etc are all conspirators? Blah!
- jrochkind1 5y ago
  I don't think it's actually a conspiracy or plan in that way, but Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden are definitely greatly concerned with discrediting the ideologies and plans of those further to the left than them.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    Which ideologies and plans are those?
    - jrochkind1 5y ago
      You're not familiar with the fact that there are people to the left of establishment Democrats? We could start with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA); India Walton, who won the Democratic primary for mayor of Buffalo; or even the Bernie Sanders campaign. It gets more left from there, beyond electoral campaigns.
      - giantg2 5y ago
        Sure, but it doesn't seem any are in national office. In the context of "Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden" wanting to keep "plans" away, it would seem that those plans would have to have some amount of publicity to begin with. There are an absurd number of plans by those not in office that have no publicity, and thus would be unknowable to the reader. That's why I was asking for clarification.
        jrochkind1 5y ago
        Right, Pelosi, Schumer, Biden, and similar, want to do their best to keep anyone with such plans out of power, and make sure they do not threaten the power of those in power. That's all I'm saying. The comment at the top here was "I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s."
giantg2 5y ago
Isn't increased unemployment the baby brother of UBI? If I remember correctly the right complained pretty heavily about both. Even in states with left leaning politicians, most construction was shut down. There were people questioning why outdoor construction was shut down.
callmeal 5y ago
>People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went into cardiac arrest by every measure of actual productivity. Are people still on this canard? As a reminder, if people were paid by their measure of actual productivity, minimum wage would be $24/hr (see: https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/24/what-the-minimum-wage-would-be-if-it-kept-pace-with-productivity/ https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/24/what-the-minimum-wag...) Another reminder, these are the relief payments made to Americans over one year: March 27, 2020: The payments for the first checks were $1,200 December 2020: The payments for the second checks were $600. March 2021: The payments for the third checks was $1,400. Total payments over a year: $3,200 A total of $850 billion was disbursed. The total payments work out to $266.66/month. I don't understand how disconnected people have to be to be angry over $266.66/month. Compare that disbursement with PPP loans. I don't see the same gnashing of teeth over the forgiven loans (remember a lot of them were not used for their intended purpose): https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program/ppp-data https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-o... Data as of January 23, 2022 Total PPP volume (2020-2021) $790 billion Applications for forgiveness $688 billion And "paying people to exist" amount is completely dwarfed by corporate bailouts and tax breaks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/coronavirus-bailout-spending/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/corona... More than half of the $4 trillion approved by Congress this spring was targeted to businesses ... Much of the money was issued to companies regardless of whether they were impacted by the pandemic or used it to pay employees. The bill included $651 billion in business tax breaks that often went to companies unaffected by the pandemic and others that laid off thousands of workers. The Cheesecake Factory, for example, furloughed 41,000 people, and said it will claim a tax break worth $50 million. ... Billions more went to the Federal Reserve to help stabilize markets, and those efforts enabled many companies — including Wells Fargo, AT&T and Carnival, the cruise company — to borrow at lower rates while also laying off thousands of workers. ... More than 210 hotel owners received PPP funds, for example, and have yet to rehire most of their staffs, according to Unite Here, the union whose members staff the properties. Among them: Omni Hotels & Resorts, a chain controlled by Texas billionaire Robert Rowling. A group of Omni properties received between $30 million and $71 million from the PPP while also furloughing workers and cutting off their health insurance coverage. All data in: https://www.covidmoneytracker.org/ https://www.covidmoneytracker.org/ So please, lets stop it with this right wing nonsense that people were paid to not work while ignoring the rest.
eru 5y ago
> I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, [...] It's all a question of how much money you are printing, and what your inflation targets are. The Fed is supposed to 'print' just enough money to hit 2% inflation. If the fiscal side is doing weird stuff (or not doing weird stuff), the Fed is supposed to accomodate that by printing more or less money, so they still hit their 2% target.

throw0101a 5y ago

> Instead of giving people money to chase goods stuck in ports the government should have spent that money on building up infrastructure and have people out doors away from covid. This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was. Further, the people staying at home were often in the service sector: retail, restaurants, etc. Even when the restrictions were lifted a bit, you can't simply take random people who were doing one job and throw them onto a construction site and expect them to be useful (never mind productive/efficient). The number of companies and people available at any given time to do this is at any particular instant of time is finite, and most were probably on a contract. Certainly over time people can shift careers, but that is not instantaneous change. Depending on the "infrastructure" you want to do/build, you need lead time to actually design what you want to build, do surveys, get permits, and order materials. And because of global supply chain issues, a lot of materials were in short supply: lumber being the most publicized, but shipping pallets were an issue as well (there was a good Odd Lots podcast episode on them), as were the obscure things such as truss plates. Maintaining infrastructure is a great idea, but you don't "just" do it. Outside of 'simply' tarmac repaving the surface of a road, most everything else takes a few months of planning.

vsareto 5y ago
You're right you don't just do go out and do that stuff, but it's been delayed by political forces for years. We could have been well past the initial stages by now.
thrown_22 5y ago
>This statement makes no sense: even (most? all?) construction was shut down during (pre-vaccine) 2020 for periods of time to reduce the spread of COVID. At least it was where I was. Yes, and? All it would have taken was to call them vital workers, or whatever the local equivalent was, and they could have kept working. That was a political decision and covid still spread among vital workers. Adding construction would have changed very little in the grand scheme of things. As for the rest building isn't software design. Unless people start getting physically in the way of each other more people on a site means the project gets done faster. If nothing else the real tradies would appreciate having a gofer each.
- giantg2 5y ago
  "Unless people start getting physically in the way of each other more people on a site means the project gets done faster." Have you worked construction? If they're clueless, then they will slow you down with mistakes and questions/training. Not to mention many parts of construction require skilled trades (electric, plumbing, carpentry, masonry, etc), some of which require licenses.
  - throw0101a 5y ago
    > Not to mention many parts of construction require skilled trades (electric, plumbing, carpentry, masonry, etc), some of which require licenses. There's smaller and smaller areas of construction that is unskilled nowadays AFAICT. Unless you're just there to lift stuff and/or literally dig ditches (which is often done with machines), there's not much that can be done by some rando off the street. Even the day labourers that are found around Home Depot (probably?) have areas of knowledge, even if it's just framing. Certainly some areas could be picked up fairly quickly (spreading/trowling and/or screeding concrete?), in most other areas there's some specialized knowledge. Especially if it has to meet code, which is getting more stringent over time. A YouTube channel of someone who does building inspections: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=326J5b_1ydI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=326J5b_1ydI * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD3Vo6WTsXA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD3Vo6WTsXA Quite a few subtle places that one can mess up, even if you're a licensed professional (e.g., electrician) and are supposed to know better.

nebula8804 5y ago

>Were I a betting man I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s. You see this is what I have been thinking as well. We have the corruption and rot being exposed on a daily basis by all the new Left media. Do we honestly think the capital class is that stupid that they haven't thought of some way to extinguish the rise of progressivism when the playbook is out in the open? They are probably 10 steps ahead of any populist movement. The left frequently cites FDR and how things turned around after the people had enough and were at the breaking point. They say its in the cusp of happening again. Yes that could happen again but with the rise of technology and big data, I can't possibly believe that the capitalist class hasn't used this ability to simulate every probable outcome to counteract this. I am reminded of the excitement I was feeling in the run up to Bernie almost clinching the presidential nomination. His campaign was firing on all cylinders and was just destroying everyone else in the race. I got a false sense of victory when I took seriously the crying that all the mainstream media pundits started to do after his stunning victory in Nevada. It was all a ruse in the end. At the last second before Super Tuesday (the day that would have cemented Sanders victory) the Democratic leadership(Obama and others) made a deal with Klobuchar and Buttigieg to drop out and side with Biden in a move that left the Sanders campaign with no time left to recover. I saw things like Universal Healthcare, stopping the MIC and other progressive goals literally crumble in my hands after that day. Looking back, I should have seen what happened to Jeremy Corybn in the UK and treated it as a canary in the coal mine. Now with Biden having done absolutely less than nothing, I feel as if at least half of the Millenial generation and some of Gen Z has been completely written off at this point. The oldest in this cohort is turning forty and there is no way for them to make up for lost gains in this corrupt rotten scenario. I'm really scared about the future. They are now gunning for the last stable career in the US (software engineering/IT) and while I am in my 30s and been in the industry for ~10 years now, I can't be reasonably sure that I can make it to the finish line of retirement without this career disappearing or being severely curtailed by automation/outsourcing/etc. I guess every generation has this fear.

thrown_22 5y ago
>The left frequently cites FDR and how things turned around after the people had enough and were at the breaking point. The New Deal did very little to stop the great depression until WWII started. People forget that everything in the New Deal was still too little too late and it was only fixed when the federal government debt was 20% of the US economy for 5 years between 1941 and 1946.

sqqqqrly 5y ago

So the "reason for doing this" was a conspiracy to discredit the left and Polosi, Schumer, Biden, etc are all conspirators? Blah!

jrochkind1 5y ago
I don't think it's actually a conspiracy or plan in that way, but Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden are definitely greatly concerned with discrediting the ideologies and plans of those further to the left than them.
- giantg2 5y ago
  Which ideologies and plans are those?
  - jrochkind1 5y ago
    You're not familiar with the fact that there are people to the left of establishment Democrats? We could start with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA); India Walton, who won the Democratic primary for mayor of Buffalo; or even the Bernie Sanders campaign. It gets more left from there, beyond electoral campaigns.
    - giantg2 5y ago
      Sure, but it doesn't seem any are in national office. In the context of "Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden" wanting to keep "plans" away, it would seem that those plans would have to have some amount of publicity to begin with. There are an absurd number of plans by those not in office that have no publicity, and thus would be unknowable to the reader. That's why I was asking for clarification.
      - jrochkind1 5y ago
        Right, Pelosi, Schumer, Biden, and similar, want to do their best to keep anyone with such plans out of power, and make sure they do not threaten the power of those in power. That's all I'm saying. The comment at the top here was "I'd say that the reason for doing this was to discredit left leaning economic policy for another 40 years, like happened after the stagflation of the 70s."

giantg2 5y ago

Isn't increased unemployment the baby brother of UBI? If I remember correctly the right complained pretty heavily about both. Even in states with left leaning politicians, most construction was shut down. There were people questioning why outdoor construction was shut down.

callmeal 5y ago

>People not working being paid for existing at a time when the real economy went into cardiac arrest by every measure of actual productivity. Are people still on this canard? As a reminder, if people were paid by their measure of actual productivity, minimum wage would be $24/hr (see: https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/24/what-the-minimum-wage-would-be-if-it-kept-pace-with-productivity/ https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/24/what-the-minimum-wag...) Another reminder, these are the relief payments made to Americans over one year: March 27, 2020: The payments for the first checks were $1,200 December 2020: The payments for the second checks were $600. March 2021: The payments for the third checks was $1,400. Total payments over a year: $3,200 A total of $850 billion was disbursed. The total payments work out to $266.66/month. I don't understand how disconnected people have to be to be angry over $266.66/month. Compare that disbursement with PPP loans. I don't see the same gnashing of teeth over the forgiven loans (remember a lot of them were not used for their intended purpose): https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-options/paycheck-protection-program/ppp-data https://www.sba.gov/funding-programs/loans/covid-19-relief-o... Data as of January 23, 2022 Total PPP volume (2020-2021) $790 billion Applications for forgiveness $688 billion And "paying people to exist" amount is completely dwarfed by corporate bailouts and tax breaks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/coronavirus-bailout-spending/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/corona... More than half of the $4 trillion approved by Congress this spring was targeted to businesses ... Much of the money was issued to companies regardless of whether they were impacted by the pandemic or used it to pay employees. The bill included $651 billion in business tax breaks that often went to companies unaffected by the pandemic and others that laid off thousands of workers. The Cheesecake Factory, for example, furloughed 41,000 people, and said it will claim a tax break worth $50 million. ... Billions more went to the Federal Reserve to help stabilize markets, and those efforts enabled many companies — including Wells Fargo, AT&T and Carnival, the cruise company — to borrow at lower rates while also laying off thousands of workers. ... More than 210 hotel owners received PPP funds, for example, and have yet to rehire most of their staffs, according to Unite Here, the union whose members staff the properties. Among them: Omni Hotels & Resorts, a chain controlled by Texas billionaire Robert Rowling. A group of Omni properties received between $30 million and $71 million from the PPP while also furloughing workers and cutting off their health insurance coverage. All data in: https://www.covidmoneytracker.org/ https://www.covidmoneytracker.org/ So please, lets stop it with this right wing nonsense that people were paid to not work while ignoring the rest.

eru 5y ago

> I basically think that any government can both print money and avoid inflation bar external shocks with a modicum of common sense, [...] It's all a question of how much money you are printing, and what your inflation targets are. The Fed is supposed to 'print' just enough money to hit 2% inflation. If the fiscal side is doing weird stuff (or not doing weird stuff), the Fed is supposed to accomodate that by printing more or less money, so they still hit their 2% target.