4 ms·
Without knowing where this number came from, I could imagine that his reasoning is that there's 4 main theories that are well-reasoned and he estimates they are
by jamesrom 5y ago
Without knowing where this number came from, I could imagine that his reasoning is that there's 4 main theories that are well-reasoned and he estimates they are all as equally likely.
- oneoff786 5y agoThat’s not how probability works
- jamesrom 5y agoSure it is, there's even a name for it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_indifference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_indifference
- rgoulter 5y agoGrant Sanderson (3blue1brown) was recently on a Numberphile video where he explained Bertrand's Paradox. An under-specified question meant that there were good arguments for different answers, depending on how the question was interpreted. In the complementary video supporting the discussion, I found Sanderson's discussion pretty interesting. -- One of the suggested arguments was even "let's take the average of the other answers", although Sanderson wasn't sure if this was meant to be a joke or not. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJyKM-7IgAU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJyKM-7IgAU