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> But after two years of accruing data, the superiority of natural immunity over vaccinated immunity is clear. This seems like literal survivorship bias. In t

> But after two years of accruing data, the superiority of natural immunity over vaccinated immunity is clear. This seems like literal survivorship bias. In the the US, covid kills about 2% of those who get it, so the natural immunity numbers are boosted by the fact that people with weak immune systems have been removed from the pool. Honestly though, isn't this by design? Isn't the whole point of vaccines to invoke a weaker immune response that does not endanger the receiver?

spaceisballer 5y ago
It’s funny how people use that 2% to reinforce their opinion that COVID isn’t a big deal. But we have a virus that is very communicable just racking up deaths. I feel like we are approaching the point of everyone either being vaccinated or having had COVID.
- MatteoFrigo 5y ago
  See https://covidestim.org/ https://covidestim.org/ for a quantification of your "feeling". Summary: 80% of the population in California and New York state have been infected. Other states are in a similar range, but I was unable to find a USA-wide figure so I refrain from making a more general statement. The 2% number is an overestimate. For the US over two years we had about 800K dead and 250M infected (ballpark assuming that 80% holds everywhere), which yields about .3% death probability per individual ever infected. For context, a bit less than 1% of the entire population dies each year (2,854,838 died in the US in 2019 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm#section_4 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm#secti...), so about 6M people would have died in two years anyway even without covid.
  - timoth3y 5y ago
    You are misusing statistics here. You are dividing confirmed covid deaths by estimated covid infections, and that's not really valid. When researchers study those with natural immunity, they examine people who are confirmed to have had covid before, so the CFR is the right number to use. BTW, In the US covid has a CFR of 2%. It is not an "overestimate." It's not even an estimate. It's just what the number is. Obviously that number changes depending on the time frame, and it is (thankfully) dropping.
    - MatteoFrigo 5y ago
      You said "covid kills about 2% of those who get it". Are you taking issue with the best available estimate of how many people "got it"? If not, your statement would imply that covid killed 5M people in the US, which is almost all the deaths in the US in the past two years.

spaceisballer 5y ago

It’s funny how people use that 2% to reinforce their opinion that COVID isn’t a big deal. But we have a virus that is very communicable just racking up deaths. I feel like we are approaching the point of everyone either being vaccinated or having had COVID.

MatteoFrigo 5y ago
See https://covidestim.org/ https://covidestim.org/ for a quantification of your "feeling". Summary: 80% of the population in California and New York state have been infected. Other states are in a similar range, but I was unable to find a USA-wide figure so I refrain from making a more general statement. The 2% number is an overestimate. For the US over two years we had about 800K dead and 250M infected (ballpark assuming that 80% holds everywhere), which yields about .3% death probability per individual ever infected. For context, a bit less than 1% of the entire population dies each year (2,854,838 died in the US in 2019 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm#section_4 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm#secti...), so about 6M people would have died in two years anyway even without covid.
- timoth3y 5y ago
  You are misusing statistics here. You are dividing confirmed covid deaths by estimated covid infections, and that's not really valid. When researchers study those with natural immunity, they examine people who are confirmed to have had covid before, so the CFR is the right number to use. BTW, In the US covid has a CFR of 2%. It is not an "overestimate." It's not even an estimate. It's just what the number is. Obviously that number changes depending on the time frame, and it is (thankfully) dropping.
  - MatteoFrigo 5y ago
    You said "covid kills about 2% of those who get it". Are you taking issue with the best available estimate of how many people "got it"? If not, your statement would imply that covid killed 5M people in the US, which is almost all the deaths in the US in the past two years.