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I mean I graduated top 5% of my class and make early 6 figures. My friend who graduated bottom 5% is now a crypto millionaire living in Dubai. Meanwhile I can w

by nus07 5y ago

I mean I graduated top 5% of my class and make early 6 figures. My friend who graduated bottom 5% is now a crypto millionaire living in Dubai. Meanwhile I can write complex Scala code but I have no idea what blockchain , NFT , crypto is all about apart from the fact that it made my friend rich and made early adopters rich . How , why , when I don’t know . What’s the gain, purpose of it - I don’t know . Then again I don’t know what’s the purpose of data processing for ad-tech ML models and how it helps humanity either . The world is a Ponzi scheme . Can I go back to 1995?

rozularen 5y ago
survivorship bias?
- kriops 5y ago
  None of the people I know involved with crypto, including miners, daytraders, and HODLers, have not crushed the market in the last nine years. Also, if mainstream crypto is a Ponzi scheme, how is fiat currency not?
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    > None of the people I know involved with crypto, including miners, daytraders, and HODLers, have not crushed the market in the last nine years. This is what we call survivorship bias. > Also, if mainstream crypto is a Ponzi scheme, how is fiat currency not? This is utter nonsense. Fractional reserve lending means that money enters the supply on loan. It has to be returned to the issuer, and once its returned, it blinks out of existence. The demand for repayment of the loan is what backs every dollar out there. Each dollar is fully backed by the demand to repay the loan that issued it and the social and institutional mechanisms that enforce this including the courts. The attributes of a Ponzi scheme are: 1. People invest into it because they expect substantial profits, and ... 2. ... that expectation is sustained by such profits being paid to those who choose to cash out. And... 3. ... there is no external source of revenue for those payoffs. Instead... 4. ... the payoffs come entirely from new investment money, while ... 5. ... the operators take away a large portion of this money. Go ahead and explain how that maps to the world's reserve currency. After all category (1) is patently invalidated because nobody holds USD expecting a return in USD. They expect to lose 2% on average to inflation.
    - ancientworldnow 5y ago
      Should let forex traders know that they can't make money on USD.
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        They're not making money on USD. Forex is a highly-leveraged speculative zero-sum game where you're betting against a different trader. It's provably zero-sum like futures trading. Negative sum if you include the rake. The total supply of both sides of that trade remains the same, it's simply a redistribution of wealth from the losing trader to the winning trader. It's also strictly a pair trade meaning that you're buying one currency and selling a different one at the same time, on the anticipation that you can unwind that for more than you spent to enter it. Forex trades are never just "USD" it's always "USD/YYY." This is completely different than expecting to earn money by holding USD.
- dandanua 5y ago
  You're implying that other people have lost the equivalent amount of money. But the net effect is not zero. The society is losing badly if everyone is just playing in a casino.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
fasteddie31003 5y ago
If you had millions why would you pick Dubai to live in?
- heckerhut 5y ago
  It’s become a fancy place for rich people with no taste or ethics.
- nus07 5y ago
  My friend first moved to Hong Kong since they had a strong crypto community and something to do with regulations. After the recent issues with China in HK he moved base to Dubai . He told me it’s something to do with regulations of crypto - I don’t understand too much of it tbh.
- jpgvm 5y ago
  Probably moved there before selling said crypto assets so they wouldn't need to pay capital gains taxes.
adam_arthur 5y ago
If you make money, it means you were right
dqpb 5y ago
Ah, so you’ve learned how meaningless it is to graduate top 5% in your class.

by nus07 5y ago

rozularen 5y ago

survivorship bias?

kriops 5y ago
None of the people I know involved with crypto, including miners, daytraders, and HODLers, have not crushed the market in the last nine years. Also, if mainstream crypto is a Ponzi scheme, how is fiat currency not?
- arcticbull 5y ago
  > None of the people I know involved with crypto, including miners, daytraders, and HODLers, have not crushed the market in the last nine years. This is what we call survivorship bias. > Also, if mainstream crypto is a Ponzi scheme, how is fiat currency not? This is utter nonsense. Fractional reserve lending means that money enters the supply on loan. It has to be returned to the issuer, and once its returned, it blinks out of existence. The demand for repayment of the loan is what backs every dollar out there. Each dollar is fully backed by the demand to repay the loan that issued it and the social and institutional mechanisms that enforce this including the courts. The attributes of a Ponzi scheme are: 1. People invest into it because they expect substantial profits, and ... 2. ... that expectation is sustained by such profits being paid to those who choose to cash out. And... 3. ... there is no external source of revenue for those payoffs. Instead... 4. ... the payoffs come entirely from new investment money, while ... 5. ... the operators take away a large portion of this money. Go ahead and explain how that maps to the world's reserve currency. After all category (1) is patently invalidated because nobody holds USD expecting a return in USD. They expect to lose 2% on average to inflation.
  - ancientworldnow 5y ago
    Should let forex traders know that they can't make money on USD.
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      They're not making money on USD. Forex is a highly-leveraged speculative zero-sum game where you're betting against a different trader. It's provably zero-sum like futures trading. Negative sum if you include the rake. The total supply of both sides of that trade remains the same, it's simply a redistribution of wealth from the losing trader to the winning trader. It's also strictly a pair trade meaning that you're buying one currency and selling a different one at the same time, on the anticipation that you can unwind that for more than you spent to enter it. Forex trades are never just "USD" it's always "USD/YYY." This is completely different than expecting to earn money by holding USD.
dandanua 5y ago
You're implying that other people have lost the equivalent amount of money. But the net effect is not zero. The society is losing badly if everyone is just playing in a casino.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

fasteddie31003 5y ago

If you had millions why would you pick Dubai to live in?

heckerhut 5y ago
It’s become a fancy place for rich people with no taste or ethics.
nus07 5y ago
My friend first moved to Hong Kong since they had a strong crypto community and something to do with regulations. After the recent issues with China in HK he moved base to Dubai . He told me it’s something to do with regulations of crypto - I don’t understand too much of it tbh.
jpgvm 5y ago
Probably moved there before selling said crypto assets so they wouldn't need to pay capital gains taxes.

adam_arthur 5y ago

If you make money, it means you were right

dqpb 5y ago

Ah, so you’ve learned how meaningless it is to graduate top 5% in your class.