4 ms·

Consistent waning of efficacy against infection over time has been observed regardless of variants[1]. At the same time, we didn't see "massive benefit" agains

Consistent waning of efficacy against infection over time has been observed regardless of variants[1]. At the same time, we didn't see "massive benefit" against severe cases in breakthrough infections in a matched cohort study[2]. This leads me to suspect that current statistical observations do not reflect reality and may well be artifacts. Paradoxically, we're also observing increased odds of Omikron infection after (two dose) vaccination. Furthermore, we're administering boosters even to teenagers based on good faith, not good science. Hence, there still is a need for placebo-controlled trials. [1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410 [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.26.21265508v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.26.21265508v...

mike00632 5y ago
New study out today shows that COVID vaccines reduce the risk of death from Omicron by 95%. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-booster-shot-cuts-omicron-death-risk-by-95-u-k-study-shows-11643302875 https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-booster-shot-c...
- incrudible 5y ago
  This is exactly the sort of weak observational data that I am suspicious of. That same data[1] also shows that the vaccinated are much more likely to get infected, which means either the vaccine actually enhances infectivity, or the two groups are so poorly matched that they can't be compared at all. Either way, the data is weak. If you look at the matched cohort study I linked, vaccine efficacy against severe outcome isn't anywhere near 90%, but rather 30%-50%. If the vaccine then also fails to protect against infection, as it does with Omikron, it couldn't possibly have 95% efficacy against severe disease. What could explain this discrepancy, other than statistical shenanigans? [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050721/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-4.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
  - mike00632 5y ago
    "These raw data should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness..." You forgot to read this part of your source when making your cherry-picked anti-vax argument.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]

mike00632 5y ago

New study out today shows that COVID vaccines reduce the risk of death from Omicron by 95%. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-booster-shot-cuts-omicron-death-risk-by-95-u-k-study-shows-11643302875 https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-booster-shot-c...

incrudible 5y ago
This is exactly the sort of weak observational data that I am suspicious of. That same data[1] also shows that the vaccinated are much more likely to get infected, which means either the vaccine actually enhances infectivity, or the two groups are so poorly matched that they can't be compared at all. Either way, the data is weak. If you look at the matched cohort study I linked, vaccine efficacy against severe outcome isn't anywhere near 90%, but rather 30%-50%. If the vaccine then also fails to protect against infection, as it does with Omikron, it couldn't possibly have 95% efficacy against severe disease. What could explain this discrepancy, other than statistical shenanigans? [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050721/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-4.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
- mike00632 5y ago
  "These raw data should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness..." You forgot to read this part of your source when making your cherry-picked anti-vax argument.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]