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> Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. I wholeheartedly disagree. Confidence in this instance

by chime 15y ago

> Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. I wholeheartedly disagree. Confidence in this instance is just trust that your assets won't suddenly become worthless or your standard of living won't drop drastically overnight. It is a GOOD thing that I have the choice to have or not have confidence in the Government. It means (a) I am not expected to have blind faith and (b) I have the right to assess the level of risk involved in trading and conduct my economic activities accordingly. I absolutely need the Government to restore consumer confidence in the housing market before I buy a new house. Last time people felt overconfident about the housing market, it caused a boom and bust.

drcube 15y ago
What do they think money is? It's basically just fungible units of "confidence". Or maybe "trust" is a better word. That goes for gold as well as the "fiat" variety.
- javascriptlol 15y ago
  You have misinterpreted this completely. The linked PDF doesn't mention fiat currency once. NNT says a lot of bullshit, but it's amazing how willing people are to comment without even reading the paper and taking some time to reflect upon it.
  - drcube 15y ago
    No, but it did mention "confidence". My point is that that is the entire basis for money. Deep down, the economy is psychological. You can't "shrug it off" and "remain robust" when the people who make up the economy stop believing in it.
javascriptlol 15y ago
You've missed his point. He's not arguing that people should not assess their confidence before investing. He's arguing that the government should not need to prop up confidence. The comparison to Ponzi schemes is because he believes (rightly or not) that many of these interventions are not sustainable.
- chime 15y ago
  > He's arguing that the government should not need to prop up confidence. But that's the most important function of the government in any economy. I understand he is point: make the markets fail-safe and idiot-proof and there won't be a need for government to keep reassuring us that everything is fine. And that's precisely what I'm disagreeing about. I'm saying that is not how markets work. Things HAVE to have risk, things HAVE to go up and down. Government HAS to step up every now and then to reassure me that everything will be ok. Even if you remove all possibility of corruption and theft from both the markets and the government, I will still need the government to assure me because of the uncertainties and unknowns in any market-driven economy.
  - javascriptlol 15y ago
    You can assert that the government "has to" do these things, but I do not believe you can substantiate that point. I don't think NNT can prove that things would be better without government intervention, either. However, there is an important general point here about kinds of fragility that are being built into society. I think it will (sadly) go ignored while people argue about fiat currency, quantitative easing and other magic cures.
    - lutorm 15y ago
      He's not arguing that "things would be better without government intervention". My impression was that his argument was that government shouldn't assume only the risks and not the profits. Quoting from the article: "Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and riskbearing."
  - stretchwithme 15y ago
    Its not the government's job. Nor is it somehow equipped to provide a better assessment of the economy than the citizenry. Its only equipped to present an overly optimistic view, which it has consistently done, as leaders tend to try to get re-elected. An inaccurate view is not helpful. I don't think investors need government to reassure them. They need independent judgement that is not swayed by what the crowd or the leader of the crowd thinks. They need to assess facts. Those that easily lose confidence sell too cheaply to those who don't lose confidence. And, in the process, increase the average confidence with which dollars are invested. And the same thing is true of those who listen to the government versus those who pay attention to facts. Over time, those that practice what works are rewarded and control more of the decisions. So, government handholding and back rubs are irrelevant. Much more relevant is confidence that the government isn't giving deals to its friends. Bailouts and other goodies for those lobbying the system with lots of money.

by chime 15y ago

drcube 15y ago

What do they think money is? It's basically just fungible units of "confidence". Or maybe "trust" is a better word. That goes for gold as well as the "fiat" variety.

javascriptlol 15y ago
You have misinterpreted this completely. The linked PDF doesn't mention fiat currency once. NNT says a lot of bullshit, but it's amazing how willing people are to comment without even reading the paper and taking some time to reflect upon it.
- drcube 15y ago
  No, but it did mention "confidence". My point is that that is the entire basis for money. Deep down, the economy is psychological. You can't "shrug it off" and "remain robust" when the people who make up the economy stop believing in it.

javascriptlol 15y ago

You've missed his point. He's not arguing that people should not assess their confidence before investing. He's arguing that the government should not need to prop up confidence. The comparison to Ponzi schemes is because he believes (rightly or not) that many of these interventions are not sustainable.

chime 15y ago
> He's arguing that the government should not need to prop up confidence. But that's the most important function of the government in any economy. I understand he is point: make the markets fail-safe and idiot-proof and there won't be a need for government to keep reassuring us that everything is fine. And that's precisely what I'm disagreeing about. I'm saying that is not how markets work. Things HAVE to have risk, things HAVE to go up and down. Government HAS to step up every now and then to reassure me that everything will be ok. Even if you remove all possibility of corruption and theft from both the markets and the government, I will still need the government to assure me because of the uncertainties and unknowns in any market-driven economy.
- javascriptlol 15y ago
  You can assert that the government "has to" do these things, but I do not believe you can substantiate that point. I don't think NNT can prove that things would be better without government intervention, either. However, there is an important general point here about kinds of fragility that are being built into society. I think it will (sadly) go ignored while people argue about fiat currency, quantitative easing and other magic cures.
  - lutorm 15y ago
    He's not arguing that "things would be better without government intervention". My impression was that his argument was that government shouldn't assume only the risks and not the profits. Quoting from the article: "Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and riskbearing."
- stretchwithme 15y ago
  Its not the government's job. Nor is it somehow equipped to provide a better assessment of the economy than the citizenry. Its only equipped to present an overly optimistic view, which it has consistently done, as leaders tend to try to get re-elected. An inaccurate view is not helpful. I don't think investors need government to reassure them. They need independent judgement that is not swayed by what the crowd or the leader of the crowd thinks. They need to assess facts. Those that easily lose confidence sell too cheaply to those who don't lose confidence. And, in the process, increase the average confidence with which dollars are invested. And the same thing is true of those who listen to the government versus those who pay attention to facts. Over time, those that practice what works are rewarded and control more of the decisions. So, government handholding and back rubs are irrelevant. Much more relevant is confidence that the government isn't giving deals to its friends. Bailouts and other goodies for those lobbying the system with lots of money.