You're probably thinking of this HBR article by Andrew and Michael Maboussin https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-

You're probably thinking of this HBR article by Andrew and Michael Maboussin https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l... which is an updated take on the methodology of Dick Heuer's Psychology of Intelligence Analysis https://prasadcapital.com/2018/07/03/book-summary-psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/ https://prasadcapital.com/2018/07/03/book-summary-psychology... , which itself was driven by the research into words of estimative probability by CIA legend Sherman Kent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probabilit...