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Interesting to see Model S/X production volumes dropping. I understand they want to sell more Model 3s, but I am wondering if this is a comment on demand for S/

Interesting to see Model S/X production volumes dropping. I understand they want to sell more Model 3s, but I am wondering if this is a comment on demand for S/X?

zackbloom 5y ago
The Model 3 was designed later than the original S and X, meaning it had a fit-and-finish which S and X lacked, at least until the recent refresh. I see that disparity as an example of Tesla disrupting itself, being willing to launch a lower-priced model which could compete with it's own luxury vehicles. Since then, the S has been refreshed (including Plaid mode), making it more competitive. They are now in a situation where demand outstrips supply, with extensive delays to get hold of a Model X in particular. To me this signals that demand is now there, but Tesla is actively making the choice to focus on the 3 and Y production volume (which also contributes to the Cyber Truck, Roadster, and Semi all not being available yet).
jacobn 5y ago
They effectively had a long production outage for those models when they upgraded to the most recent version, with the steering yoke. Wait times were on the order of 6-12 months.
darth_avocado 5y ago
Well they refreshed S and X. To do that they had to completely shut down production lines and sold 0 cars in first quarter. The demand is strong and at some point I tried ordering a non plaid X and the delivery estimates were almost an year out. That’s mostly because there’s a pent up demand that they need to fulfill for the plaid versions before they decide to sell the regular one.
kjksf 5y ago
This year S/X production dropped not because there's lack of demand but because of a design / manufacturing refresh. Here's the story in numbers: Q4 2020: 16,097 Q1 2021: 0 Q2 2021: 2,340 Q3 2021: 8,941 Q4 2021: 13,109 As you can see, the refresh required Tesla to redo production lines, which were shutdown for the whole of Q1 2021 After that the production is steadily climbing up and is on a clear trajectory to surpass before-refresh numbers. S/X are sold out months in advance and Tesla reduced number of variants and options, both facts pointing to being limited by production not demand for the cars.
- localhost 5y ago
  The current wait time for a Model X Long Range is ~1 year (quoting January 2023 delivery). Folks are selling February reservation slots for $3000 or more example [1]. [1] https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-plaid-reservation-for-sale.253099/#post-6292840 https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-plaid-reserv...

Interesting to see Model S/X production volumes dropping. I understand they want to sell more Model 3s, but I am wondering if this is a comment on demand for S/X?

zackbloom 5y ago

The Model 3 was designed later than the original S and X, meaning it had a fit-and-finish which S and X lacked, at least until the recent refresh. I see that disparity as an example of Tesla disrupting itself, being willing to launch a lower-priced model which could compete with it's own luxury vehicles. Since then, the S has been refreshed (including Plaid mode), making it more competitive. They are now in a situation where demand outstrips supply, with extensive delays to get hold of a Model X in particular. To me this signals that demand is now there, but Tesla is actively making the choice to focus on the 3 and Y production volume (which also contributes to the Cyber Truck, Roadster, and Semi all not being available yet).

jacobn 5y ago

They effectively had a long production outage for those models when they upgraded to the most recent version, with the steering yoke. Wait times were on the order of 6-12 months.

darth_avocado 5y ago

Well they refreshed S and X. To do that they had to completely shut down production lines and sold 0 cars in first quarter. The demand is strong and at some point I tried ordering a non plaid X and the delivery estimates were almost an year out. That’s mostly because there’s a pent up demand that they need to fulfill for the plaid versions before they decide to sell the regular one.

kjksf 5y ago

This year S/X production dropped not because there's lack of demand but because of a design / manufacturing refresh. Here's the story in numbers: Q4 2020: 16,097 Q1 2021: 0 Q2 2021: 2,340 Q3 2021: 8,941 Q4 2021: 13,109 As you can see, the refresh required Tesla to redo production lines, which were shutdown for the whole of Q1 2021 After that the production is steadily climbing up and is on a clear trajectory to surpass before-refresh numbers. S/X are sold out months in advance and Tesla reduced number of variants and options, both facts pointing to being limited by production not demand for the cars.

localhost 5y ago
The current wait time for a Model X Long Range is ~1 year (quoting January 2023 delivery). Folks are selling February reservation slots for $3000 or more example [1]. [1] https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-plaid-reservation-for-sale.253099/#post-6292840 https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-plaid-reserv...