4 ms·

Adjust for median age and your argument is moot

by anonfornoreason 5y ago

mike00632 5y ago
No. The vaccine prevents death. More people are dying in Florida because they are unvaccinated, not because Florida trends older.
- rory 5y ago
  I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic, but although the vaccine does greatly reduce probability of death, it's still very clear the substantially larger elderly population of Florida has a larger effect on their death rate than the 3.7% lower vaccination rate.
  - mike00632 5y ago
    > ...it's still very clear... 3-4% of the people having a risk of death would explain entirely the ~50% more per capita deaths in Florida.
    - rory 5y ago
      Maybe if California was 93% vaccinated, not 68.5%. That's mathematically nonsense.
- 3glkjlkjlkg 5y ago
- kansface 5y ago
  Risk of death from Delta was ~200x higher for the elderly. Obesity added another ~4x. It doesn't matter if vaccines lower that by ~90% because the baseline risk is still there. Florida skewing much, much older has a massive impact in absolute numbers! You can't naively compare Florida stats to CA stats just like you can't compare Utah stats (a very young red state) to CA stats. A more fair comparison is the percentage of the elderly who died in Florida vs CA - the last time I tried to do the math, Florida came out slightly ahead, but you'd probably need a few days for a semi-rigorous comparison. In truth, I don't think you can actually just multiply all of these numbers because they are correlated (and possibly non-linear). Also, the vaccines are less effective in the elderly population.
  - mike00632 5y ago
    > It doesn't matter if vaccines lower that by ~90%... 1. Vaccines reduce the risk of death by more than 90%. 2. Given how effective vaccines are at preventing death, the extreme difference in per capita deaths between Florida and California is entirely attributable to the difference in vaccination rates.

4 ms·

Adjust for median age and your argument is moot

by anonfornoreason 5y ago

Adjust for median age and your argument is moot

mike00632 5y ago
No. The vaccine prevents death. More people are dying in Florida because they are unvaccinated, not because Florida trends older.
- rory 5y ago
  I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic, but although the vaccine does greatly reduce probability of death, it's still very clear the substantially larger elderly population of Florida has a larger effect on their death rate than the 3.7% lower vaccination rate.
  - mike00632 5y ago
    > ...it's still very clear... 3-4% of the people having a risk of death would explain entirely the ~50% more per capita deaths in Florida.
    - rory 5y ago
      Maybe if California was 93% vaccinated, not 68.5%. That's mathematically nonsense.
- 3glkjlkjlkg 5y ago
- kansface 5y ago
  Risk of death from Delta was ~200x higher for the elderly. Obesity added another ~4x. It doesn't matter if vaccines lower that by ~90% because the baseline risk is still there. Florida skewing much, much older has a massive impact in absolute numbers! You can't naively compare Florida stats to CA stats just like you can't compare Utah stats (a very young red state) to CA stats. A more fair comparison is the percentage of the elderly who died in Florida vs CA - the last time I tried to do the math, Florida came out slightly ahead, but you'd probably need a few days for a semi-rigorous comparison. In truth, I don't think you can actually just multiply all of these numbers because they are correlated (and possibly non-linear). Also, the vaccines are less effective in the elderly population.
  - mike00632 5y ago
    > It doesn't matter if vaccines lower that by ~90%... 1. Vaccines reduce the risk of death by more than 90%. 2. Given how effective vaccines are at preventing death, the extreme difference in per capita deaths between Florida and California is entirely attributable to the difference in vaccination rates.