4 ms·

For the last 6 years, the average number of new smartphones sold per year was 1.5 billion. There are 6.5 billion people with smartphones in the world. So that's

by 323 5y ago

For the last 6 years, the average number of new smartphones sold per year was 1.5 billion. There are 6.5 billion people with smartphones in the world. So that's at most a 4 year churn rate. https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone... https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/how-many-phones-are-in-the-world https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/how-many-phones-are-in-the-w...

danShumway 5y ago
Aren't you kind of reinforcing GP's point? Either your research is showing that people on average keep their phones longer than 4 years, which seems to line up well with the argument that they don't throw out their phones every 3-4 years for the best new features for no reason; Or your research is showing that they do churn through at a 4 year rate, which seems to roughly line up with the average battery lifespan and security lifespan across the market. 3 years is right about the time period where I need to replace my phone battery. It would not surprise me at all to see stats that suggest that a lot of people keep their phones until the batteries are unusable or until they're no longer getting updates, and then swap to a new phone -- and across multiple manufacturers, I would not be surprised at all to see that work out to be a ~4 year churn rate, if not a little higher. I'm not sure what this proves. Anecdotally, I know more than a few people who prefer Apple devices specifically because of their longevity and support lifespan, so I don't think that the "we have to throw this out because a new phone got announced" characterization is universally true or even necessarily the most common consumer attitude. I also know people who have bought new phones because the battery was getting weak. I have argued with them to take their phones to a repair shop and to pay $60 to replace the battery, but they felt weird doing that for whatever reason. I suspect some of that might come from the fear of having their phone broken during the repair process before a new one comes in, but that's pure speculation on my part. And yeah, I also know a few people who have bought new phones just because they care about getting a slightly fancier camera. But I don't necessarily think they're the majority, and an average churn-rate of 4 years across the market would seem to reinforce that point more than anything else.

by 323 5y ago

danShumway 5y ago

Aren't you kind of reinforcing GP's point? Either your research is showing that people on average keep their phones longer than 4 years, which seems to line up well with the argument that they don't throw out their phones every 3-4 years for the best new features for no reason; Or your research is showing that they do churn through at a 4 year rate, which seems to roughly line up with the average battery lifespan and security lifespan across the market. 3 years is right about the time period where I need to replace my phone battery. It would not surprise me at all to see stats that suggest that a lot of people keep their phones until the batteries are unusable or until they're no longer getting updates, and then swap to a new phone -- and across multiple manufacturers, I would not be surprised at all to see that work out to be a ~4 year churn rate, if not a little higher. I'm not sure what this proves. Anecdotally, I know more than a few people who prefer Apple devices specifically because of their longevity and support lifespan, so I don't think that the "we have to throw this out because a new phone got announced" characterization is universally true or even necessarily the most common consumer attitude. I also know people who have bought new phones because the battery was getting weak. I have argued with them to take their phones to a repair shop and to pay $60 to replace the battery, but they felt weird doing that for whatever reason. I suspect some of that might come from the fear of having their phone broken during the repair process before a new one comes in, but that's pure speculation on my part. And yeah, I also know a few people who have bought new phones just because they care about getting a slightly fancier camera. But I don't necessarily think they're the majority, and an average churn-rate of 4 years across the market would seem to reinforce that point more than anything else.