10 ms·

Why is this comment being downvoted? What part isn't true? This statement seems very specific to the US cultural context: “The only way to get compliance fro

Why is this comment being downvoted? What part isn't true? This statement seems very specific to the US cultural context: “The only way to get compliance from people and get accommodation [is] if we demonstrate the ability to withdraw these [mandates] in the same manner in which we put them in,” Gottlieb added. In Canada, there have been experiments with slowly increasing the number of areas where you are required to have a vaccine in order to enter. They put it on Beer/Liquor stores recently and it saw a huge jump in the number of vaccine appoints. https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/first-dose-vaccinations-quadruple-in-quebec-ahead-of-restrictions-at-liquor-and-cannabis-stores-1.5731327 https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/first-dose-vaccinations-quadrupl... They are putting the requirement on big box stores (e.g. Home Depot/Lowes/Walmart, excluding the pharmacy areas) now and probably will see another jump. https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1995579971859 https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1995579971859 That said, it does appear that this current wave is mostly over, but deaths are primarily among the unvaccinated, so it is probably still a good idea to aim for near full vaccination: https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData/status/1486076680619937795 https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData/status/148607668061993779... Covid vaccines should be treated similarly to other public health vaccines, like Polio. Although we really need more effective Gen2 vaccines that do not require constant boosters and they need to outright prevent infection rather than just reducing the death rate. These Gen1 vaccines and their semi-effectiveness have been incredibly confusing to the general public.

msoad 5y ago
Why you care if others get the vaccine if it does not stop the spread and new mutations as we saw with the recent variants I’m fully boosted etc. I don’t think it’s fair to compare it to Polio
- nicoburns 5y ago
  It doesn't stop the spread, but it slows it and reduces the severity of the disease. Both of which help our health services to cope. You might care because you want healthcare to be available for yourself or your loved ones should they need it.
  - walterbell 5y ago
    > slows it Not necessarily. Because vaccines suppress symptoms, people who would otherwise isolate in the presence of symptoms could be unaware they are infected and transmitting to others.
    - bhouston 5y ago
      I think you should look at Canada and compare it to the US. In Canada there were lockdowns and aggressive vaccination campaigns with high compliance. Death and infection rates are 3x lower than the US per capita. It isn't a perfect test but the general populations and habits between Canada and US are somewhat comparable otherwise. I think it is fair to argue that maybe it wasn't worth it, as most of the deaths were primarily among the old and frail. But it does seem that the policy and cultural differences did have an effect.
      - walterbell 5y ago
        Cross-country or even cross-state comparisons are highly problematic for many reasons. Many narratives can and have been constructed, which are a far cry from a structured scientific study. Three macro differences between US and Canada: universal healthcare, obesity rates and 90% difference in population size. None of which changes the fact that vaccinated people can transmit unknowingly.
    - nicoburns 5y ago
      My understanding is that people with suppressed symptoms are also less likely to transmit it. This makes sense given that we know coughing and sneezing is a primary transmission vector. So if you're not coughing and sneezing you're much less likely to transmit it. Of course you still can transmit it just by breathing, but it's just less likely. I would also add that I'm speaking in the context of the UK. Here we have freely and widely available lateral flow tests (you can order packs of tests online or pick them up from local chemists, and there is no charge in either case), and people are encouraged to test regularly, especially if attending a social event and even if you have no symptoms. And a lot of people are required to test regularly as part of their jobs, or in order to attend to school. In this context, it's quite likely that asymptomatic cases get picked up anyway.
- bhouston 5y ago
  It greatly reduces deaths, which is the point of a vaccine: https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData/status/1486076680619937795 https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData/status/148607668061993779...
  - msoad 5y ago
    Eating five cheeseburgers a day increase the rush of death too. We don’t have laws against it.
    - bhouston 5y ago
      Heart disease isn't contagious. The argument you are pushing is valid against all vaccination mandates for the point of public health. That's pretty hard core anti-vax.
      - msoad 5y ago
        Covid amongst vaccinated is still contagious
        bhouston 5y ago
        I can not find studies about Omicron right now, but Nature reports that vaccination provably reduces the spread of Delta variant, but requires boosters in the 3 month range to maintain effectiveness: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y
    - tzs 5y ago
      The effects of eating five cheeseburgers a day are spread out over decades. The result of a group of people choosing to each five cheeseburgers a day is a tiny increase in the average load on the health care system over many many years. The effect of COVID on the health care system is a large short term spike in load. It is almost always in almost all systems much easier to deal with a long term small steady increase in load than to deal with a short term massive spike.
- falcolas 5y ago
  We’re seeing mutations because of incubators who weren’t vaccinated. But anymore, I’m beyond caring. Anti-vax stance is a self correcting problem. I mourn for the young being indoctrinated, and for the immunocompromised, but those who could help them have made their choices.
  - tacitusarc 5y ago
    > We’re seeing mutations because of incubators who weren’t vaccinated. I’ve been tracking this closely and all research thus far appears to indicate that statement is inaccurate.
    - falcolas 5y ago
      Links? Mutations occur in infected hosts, which vaccines were limiting. Even with Omicron, a report that hit HN a day or two ago indicated a 5x difference in infection rates created by vaccines.
      - xyzzy123 5y ago
        I think parent post is implying that the situation with Omicron is much more complicated. Alpha, Delta variants, sure, we can see them evolving pretty much site by site to become the things that they are. There are enough uploaded sequences you can basically watch it happening. I suppose you can blame the unvaxxed for increasing the probability of such variants. But Omicron turns up with a freakishly weird number of synonymous vs non-synonymous mutations in the spike, lots of adaptions for immune evasion and... it's rooted in the phylogenetic tree back in 2020? So it just evolved in secret for 18 months, becoming incredibly transmissible while managing not to infect a single person who got sequenced? Bear in mind that is conservatively 100 generations, usually. It's super weird. Whatever process produced Omicron, it was radically different than regular infection and transmission. This is not something we could reasonably have expected from say, increased infections due to some people not being vaccinated. In fact all the variants from "regular" transmission over the course of this pandemic - the result of hundreds of millions of infections - are being out-competed by this bolt from the blue.
mizzack 5y ago
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

msoad 5y ago

Why you care if others get the vaccine if it does not stop the spread and new mutations as we saw with the recent variants I’m fully boosted etc. I don’t think it’s fair to compare it to Polio

nicoburns 5y ago
It doesn't stop the spread, but it slows it and reduces the severity of the disease. Both of which help our health services to cope. You might care because you want healthcare to be available for yourself or your loved ones should they need it.
- walterbell 5y ago
  > slows it Not necessarily. Because vaccines suppress symptoms, people who would otherwise isolate in the presence of symptoms could be unaware they are infected and transmitting to others.
  - bhouston 5y ago
    I think you should look at Canada and compare it to the US. In Canada there were lockdowns and aggressive vaccination campaigns with high compliance. Death and infection rates are 3x lower than the US per capita. It isn't a perfect test but the general populations and habits between Canada and US are somewhat comparable otherwise. I think it is fair to argue that maybe it wasn't worth it, as most of the deaths were primarily among the old and frail. But it does seem that the policy and cultural differences did have an effect.
    - walterbell 5y ago
      Cross-country or even cross-state comparisons are highly problematic for many reasons. Many narratives can and have been constructed, which are a far cry from a structured scientific study. Three macro differences between US and Canada: universal healthcare, obesity rates and 90% difference in population size. None of which changes the fact that vaccinated people can transmit unknowingly.
  - nicoburns 5y ago
    My understanding is that people with suppressed symptoms are also less likely to transmit it. This makes sense given that we know coughing and sneezing is a primary transmission vector. So if you're not coughing and sneezing you're much less likely to transmit it. Of course you still can transmit it just by breathing, but it's just less likely. I would also add that I'm speaking in the context of the UK. Here we have freely and widely available lateral flow tests (you can order packs of tests online or pick them up from local chemists, and there is no charge in either case), and people are encouraged to test regularly, especially if attending a social event and even if you have no symptoms. And a lot of people are required to test regularly as part of their jobs, or in order to attend to school. In this context, it's quite likely that asymptomatic cases get picked up anyway.
bhouston 5y ago
It greatly reduces deaths, which is the point of a vaccine: https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData/status/1486076680619937795 https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData/status/148607668061993779...
- msoad 5y ago
  Eating five cheeseburgers a day increase the rush of death too. We don’t have laws against it.
  - bhouston 5y ago
    Heart disease isn't contagious. The argument you are pushing is valid against all vaccination mandates for the point of public health. That's pretty hard core anti-vax.
    - msoad 5y ago
      Covid amongst vaccinated is still contagious
      - bhouston 5y ago
        I can not find studies about Omicron right now, but Nature reports that vaccination provably reduces the spread of Delta variant, but requires boosters in the 3 month range to maintain effectiveness: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y
  - tzs 5y ago
    The effects of eating five cheeseburgers a day are spread out over decades. The result of a group of people choosing to each five cheeseburgers a day is a tiny increase in the average load on the health care system over many many years. The effect of COVID on the health care system is a large short term spike in load. It is almost always in almost all systems much easier to deal with a long term small steady increase in load than to deal with a short term massive spike.
falcolas 5y ago
We’re seeing mutations because of incubators who weren’t vaccinated. But anymore, I’m beyond caring. Anti-vax stance is a self correcting problem. I mourn for the young being indoctrinated, and for the immunocompromised, but those who could help them have made their choices.
- tacitusarc 5y ago
  > We’re seeing mutations because of incubators who weren’t vaccinated. I’ve been tracking this closely and all research thus far appears to indicate that statement is inaccurate.
  - falcolas 5y ago
    Links? Mutations occur in infected hosts, which vaccines were limiting. Even with Omicron, a report that hit HN a day or two ago indicated a 5x difference in infection rates created by vaccines.
    - xyzzy123 5y ago
      I think parent post is implying that the situation with Omicron is much more complicated. Alpha, Delta variants, sure, we can see them evolving pretty much site by site to become the things that they are. There are enough uploaded sequences you can basically watch it happening. I suppose you can blame the unvaxxed for increasing the probability of such variants. But Omicron turns up with a freakishly weird number of synonymous vs non-synonymous mutations in the spike, lots of adaptions for immune evasion and... it's rooted in the phylogenetic tree back in 2020? So it just evolved in secret for 18 months, becoming incredibly transmissible while managing not to infect a single person who got sequenced? Bear in mind that is conservatively 100 generations, usually. It's super weird. Whatever process produced Omicron, it was radically different than regular infection and transmission. This is not something we could reasonably have expected from say, increased infections due to some people not being vaccinated. In fact all the variants from "regular" transmission over the course of this pandemic - the result of hundreds of millions of infections - are being out-competed by this bolt from the blue.

mizzack 5y ago

The beatings will continue until morale improves.