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>I disagree, we are having inflation because of supply bottlenecks, not because of demand. Raising interest rates would only make it harder for companies to get
by sleepingadmin 5y ago
>I disagree, we are having inflation because of supply bottlenecks, not because of demand. Raising interest rates would only make it harder for companies to get finances to ensure supply chains meet demand.
Certainly an interesting take. Not unlike this read from somewhat recent. So you're in good company with your position.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2021/12/16/supply-chain-bottlenecks-and-inflation-the-role-of-semiconductors https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synops...
Mind you, basically everyone and their mother has announced new semiconductor fabs. Intel in Ohio recently for example.
I am curious if these are confounding factors. Maybe they will all play against each other. In terms of the 40% inflation locked in. This has nothing to do with supply chain at all. This is private debt to GDP being 235% in the USA. This is the central bank balance sheet being 8 trillion $ in the negative. This is the money supply being 7 trillion in the negative. Pretty standard Quantity Theory of Money
Supply chain isn't a factor yet, this is ~40% inflation locked in. Now if you consider supply chain struggles. It only exacerbates and makes the situation worse.
>That's if you even believe raising interest rates stops inflation. The correlation between interest rates and inflation over the last 40 years is pretty nil.
The correlation has been weaker because they are using these other options to affect macroeconomics. The central banks are beyond bankrupt, but there is no bankruptcy system for them. So instead of fixing the debt situation, you run inflation high and technically you reduce your debt at the expense of those who are holding currency. Primarily retirees are those who are harmed.