5 ms·

Anecdotes aren’t supposed to be evidence, but just about everything is starting to cost more. While I don’t have the wherewithal to create my own inflation inde

Anecdotes aren’t supposed to be evidence, but just about everything is starting to cost more. While I don’t have the wherewithal to create my own inflation index, I suspect the CPI is a victim of Cunningham’s Law and the “true” amount of inflation is substantially higher than it lets on. I’m also in disbelief whenever pundits try to reassure me inflation isn’t that bad because it is either “transitory” or due to pandemic supply issues.

acdha 5y ago
Yes, that’s the danger of relying on anecdotes. You see that price go up and it’s easy to react emotionally and think it’ll be like that forever, but you probably won’t have anywhere near as strong a reaction when prices recover as they have in many cases over the last year. When professionals study this and release their analysis of the causes, it doesn’t have the same impact as that sticker shock did, either, because it's generally dry material. Here’s a non-anecdotal source: https://theovershoot.co/p/understanding-covid-flation https://theovershoot.co/p/understanding-covid-flation
- xunn0026 5y ago
  So monetary policy does everything except cause inflation? The article is paid. But I see it excludes energy which is pretty relevant, especially during winter.
  - acdha 5y ago
    > So monetary policy does everything except cause inflation? No, inflation can have more than one causes. That's why care is needed to identify which factors contributed to a particular incident, just as you might have a different solution to a headache based on whether, say, you also have symptoms of a cold or were drinking heavily the night before.
    - xunn0026 5y ago
      But how odd when after a night of heavily drinking it turns out to be a cold?
- BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
  I don’t foresee prices recovering in a significant way. My apartment complex wanted an additional $300/mo rent for a yearly renewal and no matter how strong of a recovery there may be on the horizon, I sense higher prices are mostly here to stay. From a business standpoint, a perception of high inflation is the perfect cover for raising prices, especially if it seems like everyone else is doing it. Plus, assuming costs do go down again, you can pocket the difference rather than lowering prices just to need to raise them again for inflation later.
  - acdha 5y ago
    I think it's more complicated than that because that trend has been going on for a long time with no connection to inflation or even supply chain snafus. Fixing it is going to require changing a thorny mess of policies constricting adequate housing construction, density, redevelopment, etc. and private investors piling into housing as a revenue stream. Housing really looks a lot like what you'd expect where there simply isn't enough supply for market forces to keep prices in check.
    - BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
      That’s a good point. I am also a strong believer in the maxim: “Landlords are greedy”. So in that sense the dramatic rent hike can partially be attributed to inflation, but also due to the simple fact that they can.
      - acdha 5y ago
        Exactly: we need regulation and competition — there’s a 0% chance they won’t do that with any other currency.
- newaccount2021 5y ago

acdha 5y ago

Yes, that’s the danger of relying on anecdotes. You see that price go up and it’s easy to react emotionally and think it’ll be like that forever, but you probably won’t have anywhere near as strong a reaction when prices recover as they have in many cases over the last year. When professionals study this and release their analysis of the causes, it doesn’t have the same impact as that sticker shock did, either, because it's generally dry material. Here’s a non-anecdotal source: https://theovershoot.co/p/understanding-covid-flation https://theovershoot.co/p/understanding-covid-flation

xunn0026 5y ago
So monetary policy does everything except cause inflation? The article is paid. But I see it excludes energy which is pretty relevant, especially during winter.
- acdha 5y ago
  > So monetary policy does everything except cause inflation? No, inflation can have more than one causes. That's why care is needed to identify which factors contributed to a particular incident, just as you might have a different solution to a headache based on whether, say, you also have symptoms of a cold or were drinking heavily the night before.
  - xunn0026 5y ago
    But how odd when after a night of heavily drinking it turns out to be a cold?
BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
I don’t foresee prices recovering in a significant way. My apartment complex wanted an additional $300/mo rent for a yearly renewal and no matter how strong of a recovery there may be on the horizon, I sense higher prices are mostly here to stay. From a business standpoint, a perception of high inflation is the perfect cover for raising prices, especially if it seems like everyone else is doing it. Plus, assuming costs do go down again, you can pocket the difference rather than lowering prices just to need to raise them again for inflation later.
- acdha 5y ago
  I think it's more complicated than that because that trend has been going on for a long time with no connection to inflation or even supply chain snafus. Fixing it is going to require changing a thorny mess of policies constricting adequate housing construction, density, redevelopment, etc. and private investors piling into housing as a revenue stream. Housing really looks a lot like what you'd expect where there simply isn't enough supply for market forces to keep prices in check.
  - BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
    That’s a good point. I am also a strong believer in the maxim: “Landlords are greedy”. So in that sense the dramatic rent hike can partially be attributed to inflation, but also due to the simple fact that they can.
    - acdha 5y ago
      Exactly: we need regulation and competition — there’s a 0% chance they won’t do that with any other currency.
newaccount2021 5y ago