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At least two things happened here: - The pandemic gave most people an unusually-long period of time at home to help them realize all the things they could have

At least two things happened here: - The pandemic gave most people an unusually-long period of time at home to help them realize all the things they could have been doing (e.g. spending more time with family, not being stuck in a commute), if only their work had not been sucking up all their time and energy. - Income vs. expenses changed to the point where people couldn’t hope to pay off their debts even if they worked. Work has not been paying anywhere near enough. At that point, what is there to lose: if you will be swamped and in debt with work, and you will also be swamped and in debt without work, at least the 2nd option means finally not having to put up with the crap from many workplaces. Also, it has just become clearer and clearer where all the lies were told. Society did not treat “essential” workers that way at all. There was all kinds of prioritization of bottom line over employee health, especially early on. We all assumed that governments could/would do a lot more to help. Heap on all the unfilled promises for promotions, raises, etc. and many workers just have no reason at all to give a crap anymore.

Flankk 5y ago
There has been a massive psychological shift too. Everyone suddenly realized life is short and you need to take action before it is too late. Starting a business has risk and there is fear associated. All that goes out the window when you realize you have nothing to lose.
- c1sc0 5y ago
  Realising you have nothing to lose is liberating & a strong motivator to discover and spend time on the things that matter in your life. Between taxes, healthcare and inflation there’s nothing left at the end of the ride anyway. So why would you conform to the norms? Why play the game? Especially when it’s becoming abundantly clear that our society won’t be able to tackle the much larger problems looming ahead when we can’t even handle a minor inconvenience like a pandemic. So yeah, sure, I don’t blame anyone for “checking out” of the rat race.
astrange 5y ago
> We all assumed that governments could/would do a lot more to help. They did. The US gave out trillions in aid, more than any other country except Japan (by GDP). If you were unemployed this was at least $2400/month and more if you had children - the end result is that poverty and child hunger went down in 2020 and 2021, not up like you seem to think, and everyone went shopping so hard while they were home it brought inflation back. The reason people don't seem to know this is that journalists weren't unemployed and so have spent the last year tweeting "the government only gave us $1400 because they want us to die".
- whynotminot 5y ago
  It's the strangest disconnect right now between the actual health of the average person's bank account, and the sentiment that everything is terrible. Like GP is talking about insurmountable debt, but the stats show people actually paid down debt/saved money during the pandemic. I can't disagree that doomsday journalism has a played a role here.
  - dleslie 5y ago
    If the USA is anything like Canada, and I don't know if it is, then there there was a "missing middle" in terms of pandemic support. Here in Canada, if you qualified for CERB, or had social spending (or other luxury spending) cut back, then you're among those who were likely to have saved more or paid down existing debt. For those who did not qualify for CERB, and did not have much pre-existing social/luxury spending, then the pandemic likely hurt them financially. And now with inflation...
  - Wiseacre 5y ago
    Okay now compare the average person's bank account with the average rise in cost of housing.
    - astrange 5y ago
      Cost of housing numbers includes imputed rent, which is money you pay to yourself, and so makes you richer. (if you're a homeowner) IIRC a lot of new people became homeowners in 2020 or relocated somewhere cheaper, which is a positive sign. If rent is going up, that should be fixed by building more housing, which the admin is working on.
gutitout 5y ago
What nobody is addressing is that it got a lot more expensive to live. People are trying to keep up with inflation.
- dboreham 5y ago
  Because everyone was given free money which they spent on things, driving prices up.
  - ekidd 5y ago
    Is increased buying power the actual cause of inflation? Or is it disruption in China? Or is it executives choosing to take profits because they can (for some particular reason)? What evidence could be used to distinguish between the various possibilities? I don't actually know, and I'm curious.
    - yobbo 5y ago
      One such metric would be Chinese export volumes, in ships and containers. Apparently container ports are clogged in USA.
    - TearsInTheRain 5y ago
      Im sure its a multitude of factors but it is definitely the increase spending due to government intervention. Aggregate demand is several years above trend.
  - standardUser 5y ago
    Money supply has not been shown to increase inflation in recent decades. Supply chain issues have.
    - mockingbirdy 5y ago
      Would love to read more about this because my understanding is that the increase in M2 money supply is a big part of the current inflation (very simplified - it's way more complex when looking at money velocity and supply chains in general).
rodgerd 5y ago
Close to a million people have died in the US. That is a pretty important point in the labour market, quite aside from the brutal human cost. The people demanding "let 'er rip" got what they wanted - mass death to avoid personal inconvenience - and it turns out that they're getting an economic cost anyway.
- codemonkey-zeta 5y ago
  > Close to a million people have died in the US. That is a pretty important point in the labour market This doesn't make sense given the average age of people who died from Covid is well over working age.
  - runamok 5y ago
    Per https://www.forbes.com/sites/juliejason/2021/11/14/still-working-after-age-65-and--thinking-of-moving/?sh=136826665402 https://www.forbes.com/sites/juliejason/2021/11/14/still-wor... there are ~10 million people working in the US that are over 65.
- gred 5y ago
  75% of those deaths were over the age of 65, past retirement age. So we're talking -250k from a working pool of 150m (-0.17%). It seems to me that the pandemic impact on the other 99.83% of the workforce is what's probably moving the needle on any recent employment trends. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
- shephardjhon 5y ago
  Also long covid which can render people unable to work or issues like taking care of people who are sick or immunocompromised people who used to work outside but can't now.
eli_gottlieb 5y ago
Also a huge third thing: * Large portions of the middle class and professional class got temporary, permanent, or indefinite semi-permanent Work From Home privileges, leading lots of people who'd been renting small apartments in the cities to buzz off for a larger house out in the burbs. This leads to a lot of consumption of household goods.
- ukoki 5y ago
  Here in the UK at least, those middle and professional classes also saved lots of money due to reduced expenses -- no holidays, no socialising, no commuting etc. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2020/how-has-covid-affected-household-savings https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2020/how-has... I'm sure many high-earners finally got the "FU money" savings required to risk resigning without having new job lined up.
Red_Leaves_Flyy 5y ago
Don’t forget the hundreds of thousands of deaths. The large number of people retiring. Childcare. I know many families where the lower earning parent has quit their job to parent full time because of how outrageously expensive daycare is. Long COVID. Many people aren’t capable of the work they did before they got COVID and may not ever be capable again. I could go on posting factors to consider but these four should never be omitted when discussing the “labor shortage”.
- shephardjhon 5y ago
  Yes. In most discussions I see about the resignation people on both sides seem to forget that those numbers of infections or deaths were actual people who had jobs but now can't work. And many of these were essential workers who made very little.

Flankk 5y ago

There has been a massive psychological shift too. Everyone suddenly realized life is short and you need to take action before it is too late. Starting a business has risk and there is fear associated. All that goes out the window when you realize you have nothing to lose.

c1sc0 5y ago
Realising you have nothing to lose is liberating & a strong motivator to discover and spend time on the things that matter in your life. Between taxes, healthcare and inflation there’s nothing left at the end of the ride anyway. So why would you conform to the norms? Why play the game? Especially when it’s becoming abundantly clear that our society won’t be able to tackle the much larger problems looming ahead when we can’t even handle a minor inconvenience like a pandemic. So yeah, sure, I don’t blame anyone for “checking out” of the rat race.

astrange 5y ago

> We all assumed that governments could/would do a lot more to help. They did. The US gave out trillions in aid, more than any other country except Japan (by GDP). If you were unemployed this was at least $2400/month and more if you had children - the end result is that poverty and child hunger went down in 2020 and 2021, not up like you seem to think, and everyone went shopping so hard while they were home it brought inflation back. The reason people don't seem to know this is that journalists weren't unemployed and so have spent the last year tweeting "the government only gave us $1400 because they want us to die".

whynotminot 5y ago
It's the strangest disconnect right now between the actual health of the average person's bank account, and the sentiment that everything is terrible. Like GP is talking about insurmountable debt, but the stats show people actually paid down debt/saved money during the pandemic. I can't disagree that doomsday journalism has a played a role here.
- dleslie 5y ago
  If the USA is anything like Canada, and I don't know if it is, then there there was a "missing middle" in terms of pandemic support. Here in Canada, if you qualified for CERB, or had social spending (or other luxury spending) cut back, then you're among those who were likely to have saved more or paid down existing debt. For those who did not qualify for CERB, and did not have much pre-existing social/luxury spending, then the pandemic likely hurt them financially. And now with inflation...
- Wiseacre 5y ago
  Okay now compare the average person's bank account with the average rise in cost of housing.
  - astrange 5y ago
    Cost of housing numbers includes imputed rent, which is money you pay to yourself, and so makes you richer. (if you're a homeowner) IIRC a lot of new people became homeowners in 2020 or relocated somewhere cheaper, which is a positive sign. If rent is going up, that should be fixed by building more housing, which the admin is working on.

gutitout 5y ago

What nobody is addressing is that it got a lot more expensive to live. People are trying to keep up with inflation.

dboreham 5y ago
Because everyone was given free money which they spent on things, driving prices up.
- ekidd 5y ago
  Is increased buying power the actual cause of inflation? Or is it disruption in China? Or is it executives choosing to take profits because they can (for some particular reason)? What evidence could be used to distinguish between the various possibilities? I don't actually know, and I'm curious.
  - yobbo 5y ago
    One such metric would be Chinese export volumes, in ships and containers. Apparently container ports are clogged in USA.
  - TearsInTheRain 5y ago
    Im sure its a multitude of factors but it is definitely the increase spending due to government intervention. Aggregate demand is several years above trend.
- standardUser 5y ago
  Money supply has not been shown to increase inflation in recent decades. Supply chain issues have.
  - mockingbirdy 5y ago
    Would love to read more about this because my understanding is that the increase in M2 money supply is a big part of the current inflation (very simplified - it's way more complex when looking at money velocity and supply chains in general).

rodgerd 5y ago

Close to a million people have died in the US. That is a pretty important point in the labour market, quite aside from the brutal human cost. The people demanding "let 'er rip" got what they wanted - mass death to avoid personal inconvenience - and it turns out that they're getting an economic cost anyway.

codemonkey-zeta 5y ago
> Close to a million people have died in the US. That is a pretty important point in the labour market This doesn't make sense given the average age of people who died from Covid is well over working age.
- runamok 5y ago
  Per https://www.forbes.com/sites/juliejason/2021/11/14/still-working-after-age-65-and--thinking-of-moving/?sh=136826665402 https://www.forbes.com/sites/juliejason/2021/11/14/still-wor... there are ~10 million people working in the US that are over 65.
gred 5y ago
75% of those deaths were over the age of 65, past retirement age. So we're talking -250k from a working pool of 150m (-0.17%). It seems to me that the pandemic impact on the other 99.83% of the workforce is what's probably moving the needle on any recent employment trends. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
shephardjhon 5y ago
Also long covid which can render people unable to work or issues like taking care of people who are sick or immunocompromised people who used to work outside but can't now.

eli_gottlieb 5y ago

Also a huge third thing: * Large portions of the middle class and professional class got temporary, permanent, or indefinite semi-permanent Work From Home privileges, leading lots of people who'd been renting small apartments in the cities to buzz off for a larger house out in the burbs. This leads to a lot of consumption of household goods.

ukoki 5y ago
Here in the UK at least, those middle and professional classes also saved lots of money due to reduced expenses -- no holidays, no socialising, no commuting etc. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2020/how-has-covid-affected-household-savings https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2020/how-has... I'm sure many high-earners finally got the "FU money" savings required to risk resigning without having new job lined up.

Red_Leaves_Flyy 5y ago

Don’t forget the hundreds of thousands of deaths. The large number of people retiring. Childcare. I know many families where the lower earning parent has quit their job to parent full time because of how outrageously expensive daycare is. Long COVID. Many people aren’t capable of the work they did before they got COVID and may not ever be capable again. I could go on posting factors to consider but these four should never be omitted when discussing the “labor shortage”.

shephardjhon 5y ago
Yes. In most discussions I see about the resignation people on both sides seem to forget that those numbers of infections or deaths were actual people who had jobs but now can't work. And many of these were essential workers who made very little.