3 ms·

Game theory doesn’t work that way

ASalazarMX 5y ago
If game theory was how reality works, WW3 would have started several times already. Game theory is a guide, not the actual playbook.
- candiodari 5y ago
  I love what you're doing here. There is a logical, rational argument. And that's MAD (the acronym). You're saying you "obviously" don't believe people will act rational in 2 different ways 1) with second-strike guarantee people will act irrationally and launch nukes 2) without second-strike guarantee people will NOT act rationally and use nuclear strikes as a threat in negotiation, or outright launch and eliminate opponents without warning And you present that people will act irrationally without any evidence, in a way that comes off as smug and arrogant despite YOU being the one that presents the far-fetched argument.
  - ASalazarMX 5y ago
    Did Game theory prove that Nixxon's Madman theory was the best approach to handle a scenario of mutually assured destruction? I would have expected that playing an irrational, trigger happy bluffer would not be the best approach. Conversely, I do think that the Soviets expected to play rationally. Let's compare it with the COVID response. Did world leaders listen to their scientists, or did many act irrationally because they have the last word? If some of them don't follow science, why would they follow game theory perfectly? What about their whole pyramid of underlings?
    - thrashh 5y ago
      I don’t see how anyone conceivably can compare getting nearly 8 billion individuals to follow COVID orders where failure only requires 1 individual leaking the virus compared to a select few people who can launch nukes who all have to agree to go ahead with it and use that comparison to try to make a point.
      - lifeisstillgood 5y ago
        Actually that is an amazingly good proxy for how effective MAD would be. Look at each world leader. Did they follow overwhelming scientific advice (backed up by peer pressure from all other world leaders) and publically promote lockdown, or did they publicwlly disown the science, announce their own solutions / policies etc. Those that made official advice to "use aromatherapy" or something are people not likely to follow Game Theory. The count is well above zero

If game theory was how reality works, WW3 would have started several times already. Game theory is a guide, not the actual playbook.

candiodari 5y ago
I love what you're doing here. There is a logical, rational argument. And that's MAD (the acronym). You're saying you "obviously" don't believe people will act rational in 2 different ways 1) with second-strike guarantee people will act irrationally and launch nukes 2) without second-strike guarantee people will NOT act rationally and use nuclear strikes as a threat in negotiation, or outright launch and eliminate opponents without warning And you present that people will act irrationally without any evidence, in a way that comes off as smug and arrogant despite YOU being the one that presents the far-fetched argument.
- ASalazarMX 5y ago
  Did Game theory prove that Nixxon's Madman theory was the best approach to handle a scenario of mutually assured destruction? I would have expected that playing an irrational, trigger happy bluffer would not be the best approach. Conversely, I do think that the Soviets expected to play rationally. Let's compare it with the COVID response. Did world leaders listen to their scientists, or did many act irrationally because they have the last word? If some of them don't follow science, why would they follow game theory perfectly? What about their whole pyramid of underlings?
  - thrashh 5y ago
    I don’t see how anyone conceivably can compare getting nearly 8 billion individuals to follow COVID orders where failure only requires 1 individual leaking the virus compared to a select few people who can launch nukes who all have to agree to go ahead with it and use that comparison to try to make a point.
    - lifeisstillgood 5y ago
      Actually that is an amazingly good proxy for how effective MAD would be. Look at each world leader. Did they follow overwhelming scientific advice (backed up by peer pressure from all other world leaders) and publically promote lockdown, or did they publicwlly disown the science, announce their own solutions / policies etc. Those that made official advice to "use aromatherapy" or something are people not likely to follow Game Theory. The count is well above zero