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> fraud is possible The phrase "is possible" is so wishy-washy. It allows all sorts of movie plot scenarios which might have only 1-in-a-trillon odds. We've l
by eesmith 5y ago
> fraud is possible
The phrase "is possible" is so wishy-washy. It allows all sorts of movie plot scenarios which might have only 1-in-a-trillon odds.
We've long experience with vote-by-mail. Including 20+ years of all-postal voting in Oregon.
It's clear there is a very low incidence of fraud. We know this because there's a handful of cases where, say, one spouse filled out the ballot for a dead spouse. These can be detected by, for example, checking signatures.
There is also a very low incident of fraud in in-person voting, as when someone own two homes and votes in two districts. So it's not like in-person-only voting is free of fraud.
In neither case is the fraud significant - far less than Bush's FL lead of 537 votes over Gore in the 2000 election.
Can we make up examples of how fraud might occur? Yes! The sergeant of overseas-deployed National Guard troops may require the soldiers to vote a certain way, and be able to verify the ballots before mailing them in.
Now that you know fraud is possible that way, do you want to prevent overseas soldiers from voting?
> any fraud would be immediately and obviously apparent.
Open voting leads to a different type of fraud. "I don't rent to people who voted for X". "Anyone who doesn't vote for Y is fired."
Just look at the history of the open ballot in American history to see how easy it is to corrupt. From A History of the Australian Ballot System in the United States at https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/A_History_of_the_Australian_Ballot_System_in_the_United_States/Chapter_I https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/A_History_of_the_Australian_B...
] The failure of the law to secure secrecy opened the door to bribery, intimidation, and corruption.
] Money, or “soap,” as it was called, with increasing frequency was used to carry elections after the Civil War.
] It was charged that the bribery of voters in Indiana in 1880 and 1888 was sufficient to determine the result of the election.
] Intimidation was just as rife as bribery
] According to a report of a committee of the Forty-sixth Congress,[94] men were frequently marched or carried to the polls in their employers’ carriages. They were then supplied with ballots, and frequently compelled to hold their hands up with their ballots in them so they could easily be watched until the ballots were dropped into the box. Many labor men were afraid to vote and remained away from the polls. Others who voted against their employers’ wishes frequently lost their jobs. If the employee lived in a factory town, he probably lived in a tenement owned by the company, and possibly his wife and children worked in the mill. If he voted against the wishes of the mill-owners, he and his family were thrown out of the mill, out of the tenement, and out of the means of earning a livelihood
The fraud was indeed so 'obviously apparent' that it "fill[ed] thoughtful citizens with disgust and anxiety. Many electors, aware that the corrupt element was large enough to be able to turn the election, held aloof altogether."
Surely that's far worse than even nation-wide all-postal voting.
- josephcsible 5y ago> It's clear there is a very low incidence of fraud. No, because we don't know how much fraud people got away with.
- jfengel 5y agoWe know that people put a fuckton of effort into finding it, and came up empty-handed. So either everybody is really, really good at fraud, or the numbers are really, really tiny.
- josephcsible 5y ago> So either everybody is really, really good at fraud, or the numbers are really, really tiny. False dichotomy. The system is set up such that it's comically easy to commit fraud and incredibly difficult to detect it. Imagine a take-home multiple choice math test that says no calculators are allowed. Would you believe that almost nobody used a calculator on it just because almost nobody got caught doing so? Of course not, because you don't have to be really, really good at cheating to get away with it on a test set up like that.
- eesmith 5y agoIf it's so comically easy, how would you carry it out? How would showing id fix the problem?
- jfengel 5y agoI really hate arguments by analogy. Either the analogy is perfect, in which case the answer is no more visible than it was in the first place, or we're now arguing about the difference between the analogy and the original question. So I'm not going to get sucked into it. If you have a point to make, make it on the original question, not on one you've tuned to give you the answer that you want.
- eesmith 5y agoThe proof that there are ninjas under your bed is that you can't see them. Only ninjas are that good. How is this fraud supposed to occur? Is the ballot to citizen A intercepted, filled-in, signed with a reasonable facsimile of A's signature, and returned? Without A asking noticing the ballot never came, so asking for a second ballot? Do you think receiving multiple ballots purporting to be from A would go unnoticed by the elections office? And the list of who voted is in the public record, so if A didn't vote, and finds that there was a vote in A's name in the last election - or if someone contacts A to double-checks if A actually did vote - then that will stand out too. Must have been ninjas. Only ninjas are that good.