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So, we agree that vaccines prevent significant numbers of Covid deaths, as presumably shown by VE against death after the plateau of the vaccination drive. We'

by csee 5y ago

So, we agree that vaccines prevent significant numbers of Covid deaths, as presumably shown by VE against death after the plateau of the vaccination drive. We're now discussing the extent to which vaccines are killing lots of people. Your data in support of this is unexplained excess deaths in the US and Israel in 2021. I remember seeing something here on HN about Israel's excess deaths implying vaccines caused deaths and thinking it was bogus. Please send me the link again. As for US excess deaths, why can't this just be Covid? Does every state test every death? Also, the RCT wasn't underpowered. On what basis do you make that assertion? If the vaccines were killing a large number of people, it should've shown up in the RCT. The only way the RCT could have been underpowered is if the vaccines only kill so few people, that you need a gigantic sample size in order to tease out that small effect. That's what underpowered means. Unless you think the vaccine is only killing people after a long period of time (but that would be a separate issue to being underpowered)?

beagle3 5y ago
> We're now discussing the extent to which vaccines are killing lots of people. Your data in support of this is unexplained excess deaths in the US and Israel in 2021. Not exactly. What I'm saying is that the vaccine surely reduces the number of people whose death is attributed to covid, but I see no reason to believe it reduces any death _at all_, and it might even increase death. E.g., you seem to care if covid death is replaced by a flu death (reducing covid death, but not changing all cause), whereas I don't, regardless of vaccine safety. > I remember seeing something here on HN about Israel's excess deaths implying vaccines caused deaths and thinking it was bogus. Please send me the link again. I have no idea which link you are referring to. But data here is well summarised here https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609513428398081 https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609513428398081 - note the rise in 2021 in ages 20-39, which is not attributed to covid (and Israel has a crazy amount of testing, about 4% of the population each day at this point, averaging 1.5% all year long in 2021). The rise in 0-19 is only compared to 2020 (which is unusually low - quarantines&lockdowns did not save anyone in that age group from covid death, but they did significantly reduce traffic deaths, which a significant percentage of deaths in that age group). I don't have a handy reference for the per-month breakdown, but there is 30-40% excess in months following vaccine drives, and 0-10% in others. > As for US excess deaths, why can't this just be Covid? Does every state test every death? There are huge financial incentives to report covid deaths and hospitalizations, the point many people suspect _over_ reporting of covid deaths. States are not even required to test for covid to consider something covid, it's enough for the case to be "likely covid". What this section mostly includes is sudden deaths, where you didn't have any warning -- if you have warning, you usually have an idea for the cause. So you are claiming it's "sudden covid death", where people die from covid without any signs ahead of time, and which only happens starting mid 2021 or so -- does that make any sense to you? > Also, the RCT wasn't underpowered. On what basis do you make that assertion? On the basis of the proof you gave above yourself. 24% more deaths within 6 months of the vaccine, for a group of (essentially) healthy 18-50 year olds. Your calculation showed that if it increases death by 24% in that group, you wouldn't see it. Let's say the vaccine saves 1% of the people over 60 that get it from covid death, but kills 0.01% of all people that get it at any age with "random" cause. What you would see in the general population is ... exactly what you see. Population all cause mortality within statistical variation, mostly; But significant acm increase in groups that tend not to die, such as 20-39. I'm intimately familiar with Israeli data, residing here now (and .. Israel has some of the best population level tracking, so it's useful to look at). 2020 had lower all cause mortality per 100K than 2015, despite now vaccines. 2021 has higher all cause mortality per 100K than any year since 2010, with vaccines (pending final revisions, but they almost always go up' not down). Corona attributed death do not explain the difference. Something is weird, and the main thing that changed is ... the vaccine drive.
- csee 5y ago
  > What I'm saying is that the vaccine surely reduces the number of people whose death is attributed to covid IIRC, you have provided no explanation for a high VE against Covid-death post vaccination plateau. The only remaining explanation is that the vaccines are effective at preventing death from Covid. The point you are making here is a separate one which is that the vaccine is actively killing people, unrelated to Covid, and that this downside probably offsets the upside of VE against Covid-death for people below 60. > On the basis of the proof you gave above yourself. 24% more deaths within 6 months of the vaccine, for a group of (essentially) healthy 18-50 year olds. Your calculation showed that if it increases death by 24% in that group, you wouldn't see it. No, if there were more people that were dying in both groups, a 24% difference would be highly statistically significant. Given that so few people were dying in both groups, a 24% difference is not statistically significant. Imagine if there were 2 car crashes in a group of 30,000 and 1 car crash in another group of 30,000. That's a 100% difference. Massive, right? It should be statistically significant because it's 100%? No, it is indistinguishable from noise. An attempt to read signal into the 2 vs 1 car crashes here is not good statistics, despite a 100% difference in deaths. The only valid conclusion from the RCT is that the vaccines seem safe over the 6 month window. (Technically speaking, we have failed to reject the null of vaccine safety). > [US data] I guess, for this, I will need to really dig into the data in order to give your case a fair go. Let's focus on the Israel data for now. > [Israel data] Why cant [1] for 20-29 year old males just be noise? That bump is similar in magnitude to the 2017-2018 dip. What caused the 2017-2018 dip? [1] https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609530612400136/photo/1 https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609530612400136/ph...
  - beagle3 5y ago
    > IIRC, you have provided no explanation for a high VE against Covid-death post vaccination plateau. The only remaining explanation is that the vaccines are effective at preventing death from Covid. Israeli data does not show a high VE as such, and in fact there is no vaccination plateau in many places thanks to boosting and stuff. I'm not familiar with the data in every country, if you want to bring a specific case, we can discuss. And no, that is not the only explanation - while death is never disputed, covid attribution often is. > No, if there were more people that were dying in both groups, a 24% difference would be highly statistically significant. Given that so few people were dying in both groups, a 24% difference is not statistically significant. I guess we have a misunderstanding. You have shown that if there was a 24% increase in death, it would not appear to be statistically significant. Ergo, this test (at n=44,000, with p_death=~1/1000) is not powerful enough to detect a 24% increase in death. In order to detect 24% increase in death, you would need a much larger n. Therefore, you cannot rule out a 24% increase in death based on the only RCT ever done. Your prior says it is therefore rejected. But again, that's your prior taking precedence, it is NOT the test powerful enough to show safety. > No, it is indistinguishable from noise. An attempt to read signal into the 2 vs 1 car crashes here is not good statistics, despite a 100% difference in deaths. Exactly. The RCT shows neither that the intervention is effective or safe. It doesn't show it is ineffective or unsafe. At the rate of 1/30K, it is underpowered, which is what I said. > The only valid conclusion from the RCT is that the vaccines seem safe over the 6 month window. (Technically speaking, we have failed to reject the null of vaccine safety). No, that is your prior. The only valid conclusion is that the test is not powerful enough to show 24% increase (or 40% increase) in death, even if it is there. You have a test, that, given n=44,000 and p_death=1/1000, will only show an increase in death if it tops 100% or so. > I guess, for this, I will need to really dig into the data in order to give your case a fair go. Let's focus on the Israel data for now. https://data.cdc.gov/d/9dzk-mvmi/visualization https://data.cdc.gov/d/9dzk-mvmi/visualization ; choose "start date" as dimension and "symptoms, signs .. not otherwise" (one before last) as measure. > Why cant [1] for 20-29 year old males just be noise? That bump is similar in magnitude to the 2017-2018 dip. What caused the 2017-2018 dip? Note these are cumulative graphs. the 2017-2018 dip was "repaid" later (some people call it "the dry tinder" hypotheses, a version of "reversion to the mean" - won't go into this), whereas 2021 isn't. It is different. The reason I do not believe it is noise is that I looked at the monthly data on the Israeli central bureau of statistics, and it concentrates in the months following the vaccine drive for that age group. I don't have the latest data in a handy form, but look at these graphs mid year: https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1403798079699144706/photo/1 https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1403798079699144706/ph... - title says "Mortality in Israel, ages 20-29, feb-01 to april-29, 2016-2021" (The reason apr-30 was excluded is because of an unrelated disaster that would have bumped 2021 higher by ~40 deaths[1]) https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1422674509535064070/photo/2 https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1422674509535064070/ph... - this also reflects june data. Israel did vaccination by age bands, with 16-29 mostly feb-apr. (But not in the order you'd expect - a big chunk of 18-22 went first through the army, then rest of 20-29, then rest of 16-19) > Why cant [1] for 20-29 year old males just be noise? It could. But ... that's your prior speaking, not the data. If your prior is not "vaccines are safe and effective", but rather "I don't know if they are safe or effective", the data can be read either way, and if your prior is "vaccines are unsafe and ineffective", you can also support it with the data. I try to always use the most uninformative prior. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Meron_crowd_crush https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Meron_crowd_crush

by csee 5y ago

beagle3 5y ago

> We're now discussing the extent to which vaccines are killing lots of people. Your data in support of this is unexplained excess deaths in the US and Israel in 2021. Not exactly. What I'm saying is that the vaccine surely reduces the number of people whose death is attributed to covid, but I see no reason to believe it reduces any death _at all_, and it might even increase death. E.g., you seem to care if covid death is replaced by a flu death (reducing covid death, but not changing all cause), whereas I don't, regardless of vaccine safety. > I remember seeing something here on HN about Israel's excess deaths implying vaccines caused deaths and thinking it was bogus. Please send me the link again. I have no idea which link you are referring to. But data here is well summarised here https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609513428398081 https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609513428398081 - note the rise in 2021 in ages 20-39, which is not attributed to covid (and Israel has a crazy amount of testing, about 4% of the population each day at this point, averaging 1.5% all year long in 2021). The rise in 0-19 is only compared to 2020 (which is unusually low - quarantines&lockdowns did not save anyone in that age group from covid death, but they did significantly reduce traffic deaths, which a significant percentage of deaths in that age group). I don't have a handy reference for the per-month breakdown, but there is 30-40% excess in months following vaccine drives, and 0-10% in others. > As for US excess deaths, why can't this just be Covid? Does every state test every death? There are huge financial incentives to report covid deaths and hospitalizations, the point many people suspect _over_ reporting of covid deaths. States are not even required to test for covid to consider something covid, it's enough for the case to be "likely covid". What this section mostly includes is sudden deaths, where you didn't have any warning -- if you have warning, you usually have an idea for the cause. So you are claiming it's "sudden covid death", where people die from covid without any signs ahead of time, and which only happens starting mid 2021 or so -- does that make any sense to you? > Also, the RCT wasn't underpowered. On what basis do you make that assertion? On the basis of the proof you gave above yourself. 24% more deaths within 6 months of the vaccine, for a group of (essentially) healthy 18-50 year olds. Your calculation showed that if it increases death by 24% in that group, you wouldn't see it. Let's say the vaccine saves 1% of the people over 60 that get it from covid death, but kills 0.01% of all people that get it at any age with "random" cause. What you would see in the general population is ... exactly what you see. Population all cause mortality within statistical variation, mostly; But significant acm increase in groups that tend not to die, such as 20-39. I'm intimately familiar with Israeli data, residing here now (and .. Israel has some of the best population level tracking, so it's useful to look at). 2020 had lower all cause mortality per 100K than 2015, despite now vaccines. 2021 has higher all cause mortality per 100K than any year since 2010, with vaccines (pending final revisions, but they almost always go up' not down). Corona attributed death do not explain the difference. Something is weird, and the main thing that changed is ... the vaccine drive.

csee 5y ago
> What I'm saying is that the vaccine surely reduces the number of people whose death is attributed to covid IIRC, you have provided no explanation for a high VE against Covid-death post vaccination plateau. The only remaining explanation is that the vaccines are effective at preventing death from Covid. The point you are making here is a separate one which is that the vaccine is actively killing people, unrelated to Covid, and that this downside probably offsets the upside of VE against Covid-death for people below 60. > On the basis of the proof you gave above yourself. 24% more deaths within 6 months of the vaccine, for a group of (essentially) healthy 18-50 year olds. Your calculation showed that if it increases death by 24% in that group, you wouldn't see it. No, if there were more people that were dying in both groups, a 24% difference would be highly statistically significant. Given that so few people were dying in both groups, a 24% difference is not statistically significant. Imagine if there were 2 car crashes in a group of 30,000 and 1 car crash in another group of 30,000. That's a 100% difference. Massive, right? It should be statistically significant because it's 100%? No, it is indistinguishable from noise. An attempt to read signal into the 2 vs 1 car crashes here is not good statistics, despite a 100% difference in deaths. The only valid conclusion from the RCT is that the vaccines seem safe over the 6 month window. (Technically speaking, we have failed to reject the null of vaccine safety). > [US data] I guess, for this, I will need to really dig into the data in order to give your case a fair go. Let's focus on the Israel data for now. > [Israel data] Why cant [1] for 20-29 year old males just be noise? That bump is similar in magnitude to the 2017-2018 dip. What caused the 2017-2018 dip? [1] https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609530612400136/photo/1 https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609530612400136/ph...
- beagle3 5y ago
  > IIRC, you have provided no explanation for a high VE against Covid-death post vaccination plateau. The only remaining explanation is that the vaccines are effective at preventing death from Covid. Israeli data does not show a high VE as such, and in fact there is no vaccination plateau in many places thanks to boosting and stuff. I'm not familiar with the data in every country, if you want to bring a specific case, we can discuss. And no, that is not the only explanation - while death is never disputed, covid attribution often is. > No, if there were more people that were dying in both groups, a 24% difference would be highly statistically significant. Given that so few people were dying in both groups, a 24% difference is not statistically significant. I guess we have a misunderstanding. You have shown that if there was a 24% increase in death, it would not appear to be statistically significant. Ergo, this test (at n=44,000, with p_death=~1/1000) is not powerful enough to detect a 24% increase in death. In order to detect 24% increase in death, you would need a much larger n. Therefore, you cannot rule out a 24% increase in death based on the only RCT ever done. Your prior says it is therefore rejected. But again, that's your prior taking precedence, it is NOT the test powerful enough to show safety. > No, it is indistinguishable from noise. An attempt to read signal into the 2 vs 1 car crashes here is not good statistics, despite a 100% difference in deaths. Exactly. The RCT shows neither that the intervention is effective or safe. It doesn't show it is ineffective or unsafe. At the rate of 1/30K, it is underpowered, which is what I said. > The only valid conclusion from the RCT is that the vaccines seem safe over the 6 month window. (Technically speaking, we have failed to reject the null of vaccine safety). No, that is your prior. The only valid conclusion is that the test is not powerful enough to show 24% increase (or 40% increase) in death, even if it is there. You have a test, that, given n=44,000 and p_death=1/1000, will only show an increase in death if it tops 100% or so. > I guess, for this, I will need to really dig into the data in order to give your case a fair go. Let's focus on the Israel data for now. https://data.cdc.gov/d/9dzk-mvmi/visualization https://data.cdc.gov/d/9dzk-mvmi/visualization ; choose "start date" as dimension and "symptoms, signs .. not otherwise" (one before last) as measure. > Why cant [1] for 20-29 year old males just be noise? That bump is similar in magnitude to the 2017-2018 dip. What caused the 2017-2018 dip? Note these are cumulative graphs. the 2017-2018 dip was "repaid" later (some people call it "the dry tinder" hypotheses, a version of "reversion to the mean" - won't go into this), whereas 2021 isn't. It is different. The reason I do not believe it is noise is that I looked at the monthly data on the Israeli central bureau of statistics, and it concentrates in the months following the vaccine drive for that age group. I don't have the latest data in a handy form, but look at these graphs mid year: https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1403798079699144706/photo/1 https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1403798079699144706/ph... - title says "Mortality in Israel, ages 20-29, feb-01 to april-29, 2016-2021" (The reason apr-30 was excluded is because of an unrelated disaster that would have bumped 2021 higher by ~40 deaths[1]) https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1422674509535064070/photo/2 https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1422674509535064070/ph... - this also reflects june data. Israel did vaccination by age bands, with 16-29 mostly feb-apr. (But not in the order you'd expect - a big chunk of 18-22 went first through the army, then rest of 20-29, then rest of 16-19) > Why cant [1] for 20-29 year old males just be noise? It could. But ... that's your prior speaking, not the data. If your prior is not "vaccines are safe and effective", but rather "I don't know if they are safe or effective", the data can be read either way, and if your prior is "vaccines are unsafe and ineffective", you can also support it with the data. I try to always use the most uninformative prior. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Meron_crowd_crush https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Meron_crowd_crush