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The problem for me is price. I think the segment of the population that buys most of the new cars is pretty small and they dictate the cars that later show up o

by rdtwo 5y ago

The problem for me is price. I think the segment of the population that buys most of the new cars is pretty small and they dictate the cars that later show up on the market for the rest of us. Electric cars are not really hot with that demographic so they never really penetrate the rest of the segment. Electric trucks are cool though so I expect once volume of mfg picks up we will see good adoption

WorldMaker 5y ago
With the different maintenance schedules of EVs the used market is forever going to shift with EVs and I think there's a lot of missing education of what that means, especially with respect to market prices, and it may take some time for the used market to adapt. EVs seem to be causing a permanent shift of "Time Under First Owner". Fewer required maintenance milestones early in ownership seem to create incentives to own the car for longer. Some of the people regularly buying/leasing new cars create a lot of their turnover simply to avoid maintenance costs and with less overall maintenance, especially early in the life of vehicle, there's less incentive for turnover. The other thing that influences prices in the used market is that turnover point and if it's maintenance-forced the first owners are more willing to sell for less if they pass on the maintenance burden to the next owner (or more likely the middleman in between the two; the used car market equivalent of a "house flipper", buy the car cheap because it needs a bunch of maintenance that you can do at reasonable cost and flip it back into the used market for a much higher price). That "opportunity cost" also seems to be disappearing with EVs. EVs don't as often have thousands of dollars of (deferred) maintenances costs at the 5 year/10 year horizon and there's much less to "flip". A lot of EVs go directly from the first owner to the second without even needing to show up on the used markets, and certainly without needing to go through major maintenance. That, naturally, drives up prices. So far trends seem to imply that the used market isn't seeing many EVs not because new car buyers aren't buying them ("hot" or not), but that first owners are holding them longer and when they do sell them it often isn't through the "traditional" used market and when it is its usually still at a premium because there just isn't (deferred) maintenance generally driving costs down as in the traditional new ICE to used ICE market pipeline. I don't know what your budget is specifically, but the economics shifts here indicate that it may be time to start budgeting for a new car if you truly want an EV any time soon. The math is very different from the old math of buying/leasing an ICE vehicle, because of the different realities of maintenance costs alone, and it can be worth reevaluating that math in your personal case, because those assumptions changed. Which isn't to say that EV costs can't be driven down. Both EU and Asia are at a point where economies of scale are starting to kick in and average new EV costs have met or fallen below new ICE vehicle costs (in the EU mostly just for "diesel" vehicles still, but other categories may not be far behind; in the Chinese market it seems like EVs are winning in price in almost every car segment now). It will likely be a while before the US hits anything remotely similar in economies of scale precisely because of this chicken-and-egg that American consumers aren't buying enough EVs yet and many won't until prices drop. [1] It certainly doesn't help that the US is still fixated on heavier, more resource needy, segments like Trucks and SUVs, which drive prices back up in their own ways even with economies of scale behind them. [1] This chicken-and-egg is also why eyes need to be on the imports horizon if you are looking for cheaper prices. It's exactly the sort of situation that made Japanese imports the cars to beat in the US in the 1980s and with Chinese manufacturers in seemingly a cat-bird seat now in terms of economies of scale for EVs there's a lot of interesting questions if Chinese manufacturers are about close enough to do cross over to the US EV market today similar to the market conditions that gave Japanese manufacturers such 1980s market power. So far Tesla is the US company incumbent to beat in EV sales, and the other US companies are greatly lagging behind. Imports may be hugely disruptive here in the US.

by rdtwo 5y ago

WorldMaker 5y ago

With the different maintenance schedules of EVs the used market is forever going to shift with EVs and I think there's a lot of missing education of what that means, especially with respect to market prices, and it may take some time for the used market to adapt. EVs seem to be causing a permanent shift of "Time Under First Owner". Fewer required maintenance milestones early in ownership seem to create incentives to own the car for longer. Some of the people regularly buying/leasing new cars create a lot of their turnover simply to avoid maintenance costs and with less overall maintenance, especially early in the life of vehicle, there's less incentive for turnover. The other thing that influences prices in the used market is that turnover point and if it's maintenance-forced the first owners are more willing to sell for less if they pass on the maintenance burden to the next owner (or more likely the middleman in between the two; the used car market equivalent of a "house flipper", buy the car cheap because it needs a bunch of maintenance that you can do at reasonable cost and flip it back into the used market for a much higher price). That "opportunity cost" also seems to be disappearing with EVs. EVs don't as often have thousands of dollars of (deferred) maintenances costs at the 5 year/10 year horizon and there's much less to "flip". A lot of EVs go directly from the first owner to the second without even needing to show up on the used markets, and certainly without needing to go through major maintenance. That, naturally, drives up prices. So far trends seem to imply that the used market isn't seeing many EVs not because new car buyers aren't buying them ("hot" or not), but that first owners are holding them longer and when they do sell them it often isn't through the "traditional" used market and when it is its usually still at a premium because there just isn't (deferred) maintenance generally driving costs down as in the traditional new ICE to used ICE market pipeline. I don't know what your budget is specifically, but the economics shifts here indicate that it may be time to start budgeting for a new car if you truly want an EV any time soon. The math is very different from the old math of buying/leasing an ICE vehicle, because of the different realities of maintenance costs alone, and it can be worth reevaluating that math in your personal case, because those assumptions changed. Which isn't to say that EV costs can't be driven down. Both EU and Asia are at a point where economies of scale are starting to kick in and average new EV costs have met or fallen below new ICE vehicle costs (in the EU mostly just for "diesel" vehicles still, but other categories may not be far behind; in the Chinese market it seems like EVs are winning in price in almost every car segment now). It will likely be a while before the US hits anything remotely similar in economies of scale precisely because of this chicken-and-egg that American consumers aren't buying enough EVs yet and many won't until prices drop. [1] It certainly doesn't help that the US is still fixated on heavier, more resource needy, segments like Trucks and SUVs, which drive prices back up in their own ways even with economies of scale behind them. [1] This chicken-and-egg is also why eyes need to be on the imports horizon if you are looking for cheaper prices. It's exactly the sort of situation that made Japanese imports the cars to beat in the US in the 1980s and with Chinese manufacturers in seemingly a cat-bird seat now in terms of economies of scale for EVs there's a lot of interesting questions if Chinese manufacturers are about close enough to do cross over to the US EV market today similar to the market conditions that gave Japanese manufacturers such 1980s market power. So far Tesla is the US company incumbent to beat in EV sales, and the other US companies are greatly lagging behind. Imports may be hugely disruptive here in the US.