The specific asteroid that hit the Earth was not produced by a stochastic process, but a deterministic one. You are mistaking the tool (probability modeling) fo

The specific asteroid that hit the Earth was not produced by a stochastic process, but a deterministic one. You are mistaking the tool (probability modeling) for reality. In reality, had that particular asteroid not hit at that time, yes, sure one would eventually have, but it might have been tens or hundreds of millions of years later....that a different asteroid hit, at which time the ecosystem of non-dominant species could have been completely different, and mammals would not have come out on top (and led to us). So when you actually look at reality and the casually-related events, you have to keep taking on massive amounts of zeroes to come up with probabilities for how things happened in exactly just the right way (this way)--we are talking thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of zeroes, like 10^-1000000. That's exactly the problem with probability going wonky; so many things are not independent random variables. The whole analysis is wrong. But that's just part of what I am saying. The odds are low, yes, but everything is distorted because of survivorship bias. Since the odds of our reality looking (exactly) like this are astronomically low, it is by definition not the case that we are in an average scenario, we're in a super rare scenario; but moreover, we are survivors in that scenario, and literally everything we look back at is hugely biased by the fact that we exist. So we are absolutely not in an average case, because the selection bias of surviving is inescapable. Put another way, there could be a process that rolls a die every second and 99.99% of the time, destroys the universe. In the .01% of time, we survive and don't even notice. We keep perceiving those .01%, and multiplied together, the odds of surviving even a single minute are astronomically low. In the average universe in this scenario, everyone is dead! But we can't perceive universes in which we are dead; we wouldn't even be able to discover this process exists! So the whole business with universes randomly chosen from a distribution is just a bad model, as clearly our existence cannot be explained that way. Philosophers and cosmologists keep assuming that this is going on and that we must be in some average scenario. Uh, no.