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>I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. I'm still cur

>I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. I'm still curious what "basically nothing" looks like to you; Model S' were "basically nothing" in 2012 when they first came out and 2013 when you first test drove, but nine years later they're still only at 7.6% of total US automobile sales. What does a starting point for your "10 year" figure actually look like, and why?

martythemaniak 5y ago
The 2012 Model S is a lot like the original iPhone. It was the first modern EV that got everything right and is essentially the template for all EVs, but also too niche for the masses (the supercharger network covered like half of California for example). The smartphone revolution didn't really start to shift until the 3GS or iPhone 4, which were refined and affordable enough for a mainstream audience. 2018 and the wide availability of the Model 3 is the landmark year in my mind. I don't know what your views are, but many people think we'll see a protracted 30+ year transition, since they look at sales numbers and extrapolate linearly, or look at total fleet numbers. In that sense, the exactness of "a decade", 10 or 12 years, doesn't matter much to me, but we'll all end up looking like Norway, with the graph stretched and shifted a bit: https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/norway_car_sales_2011_oct_2020/ https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/no...