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I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. In Norway it is

I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. In Norway it is roughly 2013-2023. In Germany it might be something like 2018-2018, whereas in North America it's gonna be something like 2020-2030. I don't think we have to worry about old cars, once new car sales are almost entirely EV, then old ICEVs will die a natural death. I think the biggest mistake people make is that they think the transition will be linear, but it's gonna be an exponential S-curve. For a long time it'll look like nothing is happening, then a lot will happen "all of a sudden", but of course, the growth rates will have been the same all the time. Sales roughly double every 3 years, driven by y/y decreases in battery prices. Hard to answer overall because everything depends on local values, gas prices and subsidies, but I think in North America majority new cars will be EVs 2025-2027.

jjulius 5y ago
>I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. I'm still curious what "basically nothing" looks like to you; Model S' were "basically nothing" in 2012 when they first came out and 2013 when you first test drove, but nine years later they're still only at 7.6% of total US automobile sales. What does a starting point for your "10 year" figure actually look like, and why?
- martythemaniak 5y ago
  The 2012 Model S is a lot like the original iPhone. It was the first modern EV that got everything right and is essentially the template for all EVs, but also too niche for the masses (the supercharger network covered like half of California for example). The smartphone revolution didn't really start to shift until the 3GS or iPhone 4, which were refined and affordable enough for a mainstream audience. 2018 and the wide availability of the Model 3 is the landmark year in my mind. I don't know what your views are, but many people think we'll see a protracted 30+ year transition, since they look at sales numbers and extrapolate linearly, or look at total fleet numbers. In that sense, the exactness of "a decade", 10 or 12 years, doesn't matter much to me, but we'll all end up looking like Norway, with the graph stretched and shifted a bit: https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/norway_car_sales_2011_oct_2020/ https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/no...

jjulius 5y ago

>I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. I'm still curious what "basically nothing" looks like to you; Model S' were "basically nothing" in 2012 when they first came out and 2013 when you first test drove, but nine years later they're still only at 7.6% of total US automobile sales. What does a starting point for your "10 year" figure actually look like, and why?

martythemaniak 5y ago
The 2012 Model S is a lot like the original iPhone. It was the first modern EV that got everything right and is essentially the template for all EVs, but also too niche for the masses (the supercharger network covered like half of California for example). The smartphone revolution didn't really start to shift until the 3GS or iPhone 4, which were refined and affordable enough for a mainstream audience. 2018 and the wide availability of the Model 3 is the landmark year in my mind. I don't know what your views are, but many people think we'll see a protracted 30+ year transition, since they look at sales numbers and extrapolate linearly, or look at total fleet numbers. In that sense, the exactness of "a decade", 10 or 12 years, doesn't matter much to me, but we'll all end up looking like Norway, with the graph stretched and shifted a bit: https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/norway_car_sales_2011_oct_2020/ https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/no...