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People shouldn't be upset at any EV owner's perceived elitist tone. The EV transition will last about 10 years and we're all aware that while the future is alre

People shouldn't be upset at any EV owner's perceived elitist tone. The EV transition will last about 10 years and we're all aware that while the future is already here, it's very unevenly distributed. You can assume that everyone understands this, because otherwise we would all have to start every single post/tweet/blog with a long disclaimer/trigger warning about how we're keenly aware of our privilege, a blurb about inequality, a blurb about Wright's Law, etc etc. It'll get very repetitive and obnoxious very quickly. I've had my EV for close to four years now and I "sell" EVs to basically everyone I meet as a hobby. Plenty of people are easy to convince. Yes, most people can't afford them, or the limited options available (until 2021, basically just Tesla) doesn't quite fit their preferences. This is easy, as prices will drop below ICEVs within a few years and all major OEMs will offer EVs. Convincing them isn't about getting them to buy an EV right now, but just to decide that it's their next car. I test drove a Model S in 2013 and was absolutely sold on EVs as the future, even though I didn't purchase a Model 3 until 5 years after that. The tough parts are the people with emotional attachments to fossil fuels. The smells, the noises, the vibrations are all taken as positives. And of course, there is frequently just a lot of plain old FUD about battery fires, being stranded, etc. There's also a lot of machismo and fantastical claims about needing to drive 12hrs in the tundra without stopping, etc. Luckily they're a minority, so simple price moves will get 80% of people to switch.

jjulius 5y ago
Preface: EV leasee, believe the future is electric. >The EV transition will last about 10 years... >I test drove a Model S in 2013... And the Model S started selling in 2012 - nine years ago. Would you care to more specifically explain what such a 10-year timeline looks like to you? When does such a timeline even start? Should we include in the "transition" the period where hybrid vehicles were all the rage? >This is easy, as prices will drop below ICEVs within a few years... I'd be very curious to see how long "a few years" is to you, and what data you have that bolsters this point.
- martythemaniak 5y ago
  I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. In Norway it is roughly 2013-2023. In Germany it might be something like 2018-2018, whereas in North America it's gonna be something like 2020-2030. I don't think we have to worry about old cars, once new car sales are almost entirely EV, then old ICEVs will die a natural death. I think the biggest mistake people make is that they think the transition will be linear, but it's gonna be an exponential S-curve. For a long time it'll look like nothing is happening, then a lot will happen "all of a sudden", but of course, the growth rates will have been the same all the time. Sales roughly double every 3 years, driven by y/y decreases in battery prices. Hard to answer overall because everything depends on local values, gas prices and subsidies, but I think in North America majority new cars will be EVs 2025-2027.
  - jjulius 5y ago
    >I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. I'm still curious what "basically nothing" looks like to you; Model S' were "basically nothing" in 2012 when they first came out and 2013 when you first test drove, but nine years later they're still only at 7.6% of total US automobile sales. What does a starting point for your "10 year" figure actually look like, and why?
    - martythemaniak 5y ago
      The 2012 Model S is a lot like the original iPhone. It was the first modern EV that got everything right and is essentially the template for all EVs, but also too niche for the masses (the supercharger network covered like half of California for example). The smartphone revolution didn't really start to shift until the 3GS or iPhone 4, which were refined and affordable enough for a mainstream audience. 2018 and the wide availability of the Model 3 is the landmark year in my mind. I don't know what your views are, but many people think we'll see a protracted 30+ year transition, since they look at sales numbers and extrapolate linearly, or look at total fleet numbers. In that sense, the exactness of "a decade", 10 or 12 years, doesn't matter much to me, but we'll all end up looking like Norway, with the graph stretched and shifted a bit: https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/norway_car_sales_2011_oct_2020/ https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/no...

jjulius 5y ago

Preface: EV leasee, believe the future is electric. >The EV transition will last about 10 years... >I test drove a Model S in 2013... And the Model S started selling in 2012 - nine years ago. Would you care to more specifically explain what such a 10-year timeline looks like to you? When does such a timeline even start? Should we include in the "transition" the period where hybrid vehicles were all the rage? >This is easy, as prices will drop below ICEVs within a few years... I'd be very curious to see how long "a few years" is to you, and what data you have that bolsters this point.

martythemaniak 5y ago
I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. In Norway it is roughly 2013-2023. In Germany it might be something like 2018-2018, whereas in North America it's gonna be something like 2020-2030. I don't think we have to worry about old cars, once new car sales are almost entirely EV, then old ICEVs will die a natural death. I think the biggest mistake people make is that they think the transition will be linear, but it's gonna be an exponential S-curve. For a long time it'll look like nothing is happening, then a lot will happen "all of a sudden", but of course, the growth rates will have been the same all the time. Sales roughly double every 3 years, driven by y/y decreases in battery prices. Hard to answer overall because everything depends on local values, gas prices and subsidies, but I think in North America majority new cars will be EVs 2025-2027.
- jjulius 5y ago
  >I think the 10 year timeline is for new car sales to go from basically nothing to basically everything, but when it occurs depends on the place. I'm still curious what "basically nothing" looks like to you; Model S' were "basically nothing" in 2012 when they first came out and 2013 when you first test drove, but nine years later they're still only at 7.6% of total US automobile sales. What does a starting point for your "10 year" figure actually look like, and why?
  - martythemaniak 5y ago
    The 2012 Model S is a lot like the original iPhone. It was the first modern EV that got everything right and is essentially the template for all EVs, but also too niche for the masses (the supercharger network covered like half of California for example). The smartphone revolution didn't really start to shift until the 3GS or iPhone 4, which were refined and affordable enough for a mainstream audience. 2018 and the wide availability of the Model 3 is the landmark year in my mind. I don't know what your views are, but many people think we'll see a protracted 30+ year transition, since they look at sales numbers and extrapolate linearly, or look at total fleet numbers. In that sense, the exactness of "a decade", 10 or 12 years, doesn't matter much to me, but we'll all end up looking like Norway, with the graph stretched and shifted a bit: https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/norway_car_sales_2011_oct_2020/ https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/jykdeo/no...