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You are not going to be next after Ukraine, that’s just irrational fear. Russia has no capabilities for invasion beyond ex-USSR borders (according to the assess

You are not going to be next after Ukraine, that’s just irrational fear. Russia has no capabilities for invasion beyond ex-USSR borders (according to the assessment of DoD-affiliated American think tanks) and no incentives to invade Baltics. Baltic states are already in NATO, it’s a done deal and Russia got used to it long time ago. In any case existing NATO members have Article 5. Ukraine has not access to it yet.

sccxy 5y ago
defaultprimate 5y ago
This feels like something an Englishman that was pro appeasement would have stated to a Pole right before it was invaded.
- ivan_gammel 5y ago
  When you feel something like that, it is better to do a reality check. There’s no reason to assume current situation is the same as in 1939. Historical traumas are subject for therapy, not basis for political decisions.
  - defaultprimate 5y ago
    Sounds like something the Englishman would follow up with except about 1914s geopolitical state vs 1939s
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > There’s no reason to assume current situation is the same as in 1939 A better example is that it's just like what lots of Americans were saying about Russia and Ukraine immediately before the invasions and occupations that are still ongoing began, but with “beyond Ukraine” replacing “Ukraine” now that facts on the ground have made the latter more obviously indefensible as a claim.
jopsen 5y ago
Posturing like gorillas beating their chests is the only mechanism for showing the Russian that we stand by article 5. Things only really get very dangerous, if the Russians got the idea that NATO wouldn't stand together. Deploying a few thousand troops from various NATO countries to eastern European NATO members is just posturing that serves to ensure that an attack on one is an attack on all. Besides, increasing troops in eastern European NATO countries is allows negotiators to offer a joint de-escalation. It carries little risk, and small cost.
- medo-bear 5y ago
  > Posturing like gorillas beating their chests is the only mechanism for showing the Russian that we stand by article 5 or ... perhaps ... posturing like gorillas beating their chests in front of the home of a nuclear armed and scared ape can have catastrophic consequences
  - jopsen 5y ago
    MAD was always a bit mad. But not posturing could be worse. It's worse if Russia can't predict our response.
    - medo-bear 5y ago
      you see i can not make my mind up if russia wants to attack ukraine (why?) or if US wants russia to attack so that US gains the european gas market from russia

sccxy 5y ago

defaultprimate 5y ago

This feels like something an Englishman that was pro appeasement would have stated to a Pole right before it was invaded.

ivan_gammel 5y ago
When you feel something like that, it is better to do a reality check. There’s no reason to assume current situation is the same as in 1939. Historical traumas are subject for therapy, not basis for political decisions.
- defaultprimate 5y ago
  Sounds like something the Englishman would follow up with except about 1914s geopolitical state vs 1939s
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > There’s no reason to assume current situation is the same as in 1939 A better example is that it's just like what lots of Americans were saying about Russia and Ukraine immediately before the invasions and occupations that are still ongoing began, but with “beyond Ukraine” replacing “Ukraine” now that facts on the ground have made the latter more obviously indefensible as a claim.

jopsen 5y ago

Posturing like gorillas beating their chests is the only mechanism for showing the Russian that we stand by article 5. Things only really get very dangerous, if the Russians got the idea that NATO wouldn't stand together. Deploying a few thousand troops from various NATO countries to eastern European NATO members is just posturing that serves to ensure that an attack on one is an attack on all. Besides, increasing troops in eastern European NATO countries is allows negotiators to offer a joint de-escalation. It carries little risk, and small cost.

medo-bear 5y ago
> Posturing like gorillas beating their chests is the only mechanism for showing the Russian that we stand by article 5 or ... perhaps ... posturing like gorillas beating their chests in front of the home of a nuclear armed and scared ape can have catastrophic consequences
- jopsen 5y ago
  MAD was always a bit mad. But not posturing could be worse. It's worse if Russia can't predict our response.
  - medo-bear 5y ago
    you see i can not make my mind up if russia wants to attack ukraine (why?) or if US wants russia to attack so that US gains the european gas market from russia