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>it's amassing quite a sizeable portion of its armed forces near borders Russia is pretty large (and Ukraine too), it may look like the forces are "near Ukrain

by kgeist 5y ago

>it's amassing quite a sizeable portion of its armed forces near borders Russia is pretty large (and Ukraine too), it may look like the forces are "near Ukrainian borders" on the map (when zoomed out), but it can be as far as 350 km (at its widest, UK is 500 km, for comparison), which is deep into Russia's most populated territories.

gls2ro 5y ago
I read this the other way. As Russia is so huge, then having the forces at 350 km/500 km near the border is "close" enough to the border.
- kgeist 5y ago
  I understand, but the majority of Russian population lives along the Western and Southern borders. See the density map: https://vividmaps.com/population-density-of-russia https://vividmaps.com/population-density-of-russia Anything in that area of sizeable Russian population can be proclaimed "near Ukrainian borders". 75% of the country is uninhabited. It would make little sense to station most troops in completely unpopulated areas where nothing happens.
piva00 5y ago
Soloti is barely 30km away from the border. Klimovo is ~15km away, Klintsy is ~80km. I left out the places I've heard about amassing troops in Crimea as I believe troops reinforcement there wouldn't necessarily be preparation for invasion but could reinforce Russian grip in Crimea. I don't believe amassing troops 15-80km away from any border wouldn't be seen as "close to the border", no matter the size of the country, even for the Netherlands and its tiny landmass it would be very curious to see something like that happening.
- kgeist 5y ago
  Well, it quickly adds up. How many troops are there in Klintsy specifically (actually on the border), and how many troops are stationed in other places which are considered "near the borders", but actually much farther away? I've seen reports of military build-up in 200 miles from the border, as something next to Ukraine. Do they really have 100,000 personnel in 15 km from Ukraine (actually on the border)? IIRC Klintsy has a military base which they started building in 2016. I'd like to see a detailed analysis, do you have a link? I may be downplaying Putin's insanity.
  - piva00 5y ago
    I don't have the answers to your questions, I'm not anyhow close to MILINT to know troop counts and accurate positioning, etc. I don't believe either you'll be able to find open information with such granularity, reports were never about 100k personnel 15km away from Ukraine, that's a strawman, the 100k figure is about all the troops amassed around Ukraine's borders (Crimea + eastern border + northern border with Russia + Russian troops amassed in Belarus on Ukraine's northern border, etc.), so obviously that no, there aren't 100k troops barely 15km away from Ukraine, that in itself would be an extremely alarming escalation...
- fer 5y ago
  Actually Crimea is probably the hottest spot for any action, as Ukraine has been cutting the supply of fresh water to the peninsula. They have running water for 3-5h a day. If war starts, securing water supply to Crimea is one of the first steps they would do.

by kgeist 5y ago

gls2ro 5y ago

I read this the other way. As Russia is so huge, then having the forces at 350 km/500 km near the border is "close" enough to the border.

kgeist 5y ago
I understand, but the majority of Russian population lives along the Western and Southern borders. See the density map: https://vividmaps.com/population-density-of-russia https://vividmaps.com/population-density-of-russia Anything in that area of sizeable Russian population can be proclaimed "near Ukrainian borders". 75% of the country is uninhabited. It would make little sense to station most troops in completely unpopulated areas where nothing happens.

piva00 5y ago

Soloti is barely 30km away from the border. Klimovo is ~15km away, Klintsy is ~80km. I left out the places I've heard about amassing troops in Crimea as I believe troops reinforcement there wouldn't necessarily be preparation for invasion but could reinforce Russian grip in Crimea. I don't believe amassing troops 15-80km away from any border wouldn't be seen as "close to the border", no matter the size of the country, even for the Netherlands and its tiny landmass it would be very curious to see something like that happening.

kgeist 5y ago
Well, it quickly adds up. How many troops are there in Klintsy specifically (actually on the border), and how many troops are stationed in other places which are considered "near the borders", but actually much farther away? I've seen reports of military build-up in 200 miles from the border, as something next to Ukraine. Do they really have 100,000 personnel in 15 km from Ukraine (actually on the border)? IIRC Klintsy has a military base which they started building in 2016. I'd like to see a detailed analysis, do you have a link? I may be downplaying Putin's insanity.
- piva00 5y ago
  I don't have the answers to your questions, I'm not anyhow close to MILINT to know troop counts and accurate positioning, etc. I don't believe either you'll be able to find open information with such granularity, reports were never about 100k personnel 15km away from Ukraine, that's a strawman, the 100k figure is about all the troops amassed around Ukraine's borders (Crimea + eastern border + northern border with Russia + Russian troops amassed in Belarus on Ukraine's northern border, etc.), so obviously that no, there aren't 100k troops barely 15km away from Ukraine, that in itself would be an extremely alarming escalation...
fer 5y ago
Actually Crimea is probably the hottest spot for any action, as Ukraine has been cutting the supply of fresh water to the peninsula. They have running water for 3-5h a day. If war starts, securing water supply to Crimea is one of the first steps they would do.