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This might be tin-foil-hatty, but the U.S. leaves Afghanistan and not long after this is happening. Really feels like its war machine needs to be busy.

by lm2s 5y ago

jacquesm 5y ago
Putin is in the same boat.
Swenrekcah 5y ago
This situation has been brewing since at least 2014 so chalk that timing up to coincidence.
luc4 5y ago
Exactly. Invading Ukraine would be political and economical suicide for Putin and Russia. Yet here we are getting bombarded in the media with the supposed threat of an imminent russian invasion. The chief of the german navy criticises this narrative and is forced to apologize and resign. I don't know but this all feels very dishonest.
- thomond 5y ago
  Why do you think Russia is building up tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's border?
  - hutzlibu 5y ago
    As a threat and response because of military preparations in the Ukraine to strike again its eastern parts. But aside that - for all the usual power reasons. Distract fromm inner problems, covid, economy, opposition, ...
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- deepsun 5y ago
  > Invading Ukraine would be political and economical suicide for Putin and Russia They did invade: Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Was not a suicide for Putin, quite contrary, his political position within Russia has greatly improved.
  - luc4 5y ago
    Crimea was a referendum and Eastern Ukraine separatist rebels. Extent of russian involvement aside, there is a difference between that and an all-out invasion.
    - sAbakumoff 5y ago
      >> Crimea was a referendum They occupied the territory first and then conducted the "referendum" to make it "legal". Don't buy this horsesht.
    - caskstrength 5y ago
      If they occupy Kyiv, there would also be all kinds of "referendums" and "local militias" with predictable results. It is not like anyone remotely pro-Ukrainian will stay and vote under watchful eye of friendly uniformed people (that don't wear any identifying insignia).
    - alkonaut 5y ago
      > Crimea was a referendum Ok stop. This isn’t intellectually honest argumentation.
      - twelve40 5y ago
        Right, somehow, Kosovo is totally different.
        alkonaut 5y ago
        What on earth has Kosovo got to do with this now then? Is it whataboutism? What is it? There have not been any free/observed/internationally recognized referendums on Crimea. Most importantly, the referendum wasn't with blessing from Kyiv. There was an annexaction which was partially done with military means and partially through a mock referendum. Both of those are blatant attacks on Ukrainian soverieignty.
- tpm 5y ago
  How would that be political suicide? It's an dictatorship, there is no working opposition, no antiwar movement, anyone can be shut down very quickly. It's only economical suicide if the West makes it so, which it most probably would not - and then there is the question if that would be enough. What if China is able to provide whatever the West would not. Moreover, Russia has close to no debt and high currency reseerves. It is true that it mostly sells oil, gas and minerals, but there are enough buyers for that. In short, maybe their calclulus is very different to ours.
  - luc4 5y ago
    > How would that be political suicide? I'm mostly thinking international politics and -projects like Nord Stream 2. But even internally, there are already anti-establishment movements in Russia. Unpopular military intervention might be grist to the mill for them. I don't think Putin wants to risk a situation like in Belarus a few months ago. It's easier to govern if the people don't openly disapprove of you, even in a dictatorship. > It's only economical suicide if the West makes it so, which it most probably would not I remember plans about excluding Russia from SWIFT. I don't know if that is still on the table.
- alkonaut 5y ago
  > the supposed threat of an imminent russian invasion. If Russia amasses several hundred thousand troops on Ukraines doorstep that’s not a supposed threat, it’s a threat since it’s perceived as a threat. Pointing a gun at someone is a threat. It’s not a supposed threat. Also: The Russian invasion and occupation started 8 years ago!
tpm 5y ago
The Russian forces started to move close to Ukraininan borders in the last spring, before the US withdrawal.
- guerrilla 5y ago
  Why are you the only person to bring this up... Nobody seems to notice that these troop numbers have been almost identical (until yesterday) since April. There's some serious propaganda (by omission) going on here.
  - tpm 5y ago
    Well I live next to Ukraine so the situation is closer to home so to say. Not everyone has such interest in the situation. That said, current numbers are already much much higher than last spring.
    - guerrilla 5y ago
      Things seem to be escalating rapidly...
  - alkonaut 5y ago
    What numbers are identical? The Russian movement is completely unprecedented since the end of the Cold War. Moving massive numbers of MD East units all to over Belarus over the last days and weeks is an enormous logistical display by Russia.
    - guerrilla 5y ago
      There were between 80,000 and 120,000 not including the rebels that they support within Ukraine.[1] 1. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reach-over-120000-troops-ukraines-border-week-ukraine-says-2021-04-20/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reach-over-12000...
      - alkonaut 5y ago
thow-58d4e8b 5y ago
In a similar vein - US military and industrial complex is without a war, and suddenly, out of the blue, a tiny European country that previously hosted US military bases and secret prisons - decides to irritate the main US geopolitical rival on the other side of the world, for no reason whatsoever, despite sharp majority public disapproval of these actions (Lithuania - China diplomatic spat) It's shocking how the whole propaganda machine completely avoids Ukraine's conduct in ramping up the tensions: * reneged on their ceasefire treaty pledge to provide reasonable minority rights to ethnic Russians in Ukraine (17% of the population) * banned ethnic Russians from holding positions of power * banned several opposition TV channels * previous prime minister (democratically elected, ethnic Ukrainian) on trial for treason * another diplomat, who tried good-faith negotiations with Russia - on trial for treason * in a minor bureaucratic dispute with Poland about trucking quotas, Ukraine, in all their wisdom, decided to cut ALL RAIL to Poland * all done by a prime minister with approval rating of below 20% There are no good guys in this fight. It's either Russia's paranoia driven territory carving, or Ukraine's extreme levels of corruption and toxic nationalism
- artem247 5y ago
  -banned ethnic Russians from position of power??? This is so laughable for anyone from Ukraine. President of Ukraine is a Russian-speaking Jew. There is no checking whether you are Ukrainian or Russian in Ukraine, most of the people are from mixed marriages between Ukrainian, Polish, Russian and so on. There are plenty of russian-speaking people, who are from east and south of the country in both parliament and Cabinet of Ministers. Previous president is on trial for treason - why it’s a bad thing in itself? The guy was a war hawk, actually. It’s actually president, not prime minister, you don’t even understand how government work in Ukraine There were no points about “minority rights” in ceasefire agreement. Are you just some British dude, who likes Russia Today? Or Polish, due to the very niche story about transit? You are arguing that war in Ukraine is fine, because Ukrainians are bad people, amazing. Really hope to meet you someday.
- artem247 5y ago
  -banned ethnic Russians from position of power??? This is so laughable for anyone from Ukraine. President of Ukraine is a Russian-speaking Jew. There is no checking whether you are Ukrainian or Russian in Ukraine, most of the people are from mixed marriages between Ukrainian, Polish, Russian and so on. There are plenty of russian-speaking people, who are from east and south of the country in both parliament and Cabinet of Ministers. Previous president is on trial for treason - why it’s a bad thing in itself? The guy was a war hawk, actually. It’s actually president, not prime minister, you don’t even understand how government work in Ukraine There were no points about “minority rights” in ceasefire agreement. Are you just some British dude, who likes Russia Today? Or Polish, due to the very niche story about transit? You are arguing that war in Ukraine is fine, because Ukrainians are bad people, amazing. Really hope to meet you someday.
alkonaut 5y ago
The 5k troop movement is suspicious when it happens right after Russia shifts 200k+ troops to create the threat the 5k troops were a response to? Whether or not the US “wants” to be busy seems irrelevant given the timeline.

This might be tin-foil-hatty, but the U.S. leaves Afghanistan and not long after this is happening. Really feels like its war machine needs to be busy.

by lm2s 5y ago

This might be tin-foil-hatty, but the U.S. leaves Afghanistan and not long after this is happening. Really feels like its war machine needs to be busy.

jacquesm 5y ago

Putin is in the same boat.

Swenrekcah 5y ago

This situation has been brewing since at least 2014 so chalk that timing up to coincidence.

luc4 5y ago

Exactly. Invading Ukraine would be political and economical suicide for Putin and Russia. Yet here we are getting bombarded in the media with the supposed threat of an imminent russian invasion. The chief of the german navy criticises this narrative and is forced to apologize and resign. I don't know but this all feels very dishonest.

thomond 5y ago
Why do you think Russia is building up tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's border?
- hutzlibu 5y ago
  As a threat and response because of military preparations in the Ukraine to strike again its eastern parts. But aside that - for all the usual power reasons. Distract fromm inner problems, covid, economy, opposition, ...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
deepsun 5y ago
> Invading Ukraine would be political and economical suicide for Putin and Russia They did invade: Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Was not a suicide for Putin, quite contrary, his political position within Russia has greatly improved.
- luc4 5y ago
  Crimea was a referendum and Eastern Ukraine separatist rebels. Extent of russian involvement aside, there is a difference between that and an all-out invasion.
  - sAbakumoff 5y ago
    >> Crimea was a referendum They occupied the territory first and then conducted the "referendum" to make it "legal". Don't buy this horsesht.
  - caskstrength 5y ago
    If they occupy Kyiv, there would also be all kinds of "referendums" and "local militias" with predictable results. It is not like anyone remotely pro-Ukrainian will stay and vote under watchful eye of friendly uniformed people (that don't wear any identifying insignia).
  - alkonaut 5y ago
    > Crimea was a referendum Ok stop. This isn’t intellectually honest argumentation.
    - twelve40 5y ago
      Right, somehow, Kosovo is totally different.
      - alkonaut 5y ago
        What on earth has Kosovo got to do with this now then? Is it whataboutism? What is it? There have not been any free/observed/internationally recognized referendums on Crimea. Most importantly, the referendum wasn't with blessing from Kyiv. There was an annexaction which was partially done with military means and partially through a mock referendum. Both of those are blatant attacks on Ukrainian soverieignty.
tpm 5y ago
How would that be political suicide? It's an dictatorship, there is no working opposition, no antiwar movement, anyone can be shut down very quickly. It's only economical suicide if the West makes it so, which it most probably would not - and then there is the question if that would be enough. What if China is able to provide whatever the West would not. Moreover, Russia has close to no debt and high currency reseerves. It is true that it mostly sells oil, gas and minerals, but there are enough buyers for that. In short, maybe their calclulus is very different to ours.
- luc4 5y ago
  > How would that be political suicide? I'm mostly thinking international politics and -projects like Nord Stream 2. But even internally, there are already anti-establishment movements in Russia. Unpopular military intervention might be grist to the mill for them. I don't think Putin wants to risk a situation like in Belarus a few months ago. It's easier to govern if the people don't openly disapprove of you, even in a dictatorship. > It's only economical suicide if the West makes it so, which it most probably would not I remember plans about excluding Russia from SWIFT. I don't know if that is still on the table.
alkonaut 5y ago
> the supposed threat of an imminent russian invasion. If Russia amasses several hundred thousand troops on Ukraines doorstep that’s not a supposed threat, it’s a threat since it’s perceived as a threat. Pointing a gun at someone is a threat. It’s not a supposed threat. Also: The Russian invasion and occupation started 8 years ago!

tpm 5y ago

The Russian forces started to move close to Ukraininan borders in the last spring, before the US withdrawal.

guerrilla 5y ago
Why are you the only person to bring this up... Nobody seems to notice that these troop numbers have been almost identical (until yesterday) since April. There's some serious propaganda (by omission) going on here.
- tpm 5y ago
  Well I live next to Ukraine so the situation is closer to home so to say. Not everyone has such interest in the situation. That said, current numbers are already much much higher than last spring.
  - guerrilla 5y ago
    Things seem to be escalating rapidly...
- alkonaut 5y ago
  What numbers are identical? The Russian movement is completely unprecedented since the end of the Cold War. Moving massive numbers of MD East units all to over Belarus over the last days and weeks is an enormous logistical display by Russia.
  - guerrilla 5y ago
    There were between 80,000 and 120,000 not including the rebels that they support within Ukraine.[1] 1. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reach-over-120000-troops-ukraines-border-week-ukraine-says-2021-04-20/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reach-over-12000...
    - alkonaut 5y ago

thow-58d4e8b 5y ago

In a similar vein - US military and industrial complex is without a war, and suddenly, out of the blue, a tiny European country that previously hosted US military bases and secret prisons - decides to irritate the main US geopolitical rival on the other side of the world, for no reason whatsoever, despite sharp majority public disapproval of these actions (Lithuania - China diplomatic spat) It's shocking how the whole propaganda machine completely avoids Ukraine's conduct in ramping up the tensions: * reneged on their ceasefire treaty pledge to provide reasonable minority rights to ethnic Russians in Ukraine (17% of the population) * banned ethnic Russians from holding positions of power * banned several opposition TV channels * previous prime minister (democratically elected, ethnic Ukrainian) on trial for treason * another diplomat, who tried good-faith negotiations with Russia - on trial for treason * in a minor bureaucratic dispute with Poland about trucking quotas, Ukraine, in all their wisdom, decided to cut ALL RAIL to Poland * all done by a prime minister with approval rating of below 20% There are no good guys in this fight. It's either Russia's paranoia driven territory carving, or Ukraine's extreme levels of corruption and toxic nationalism

artem247 5y ago
-banned ethnic Russians from position of power??? This is so laughable for anyone from Ukraine. President of Ukraine is a Russian-speaking Jew. There is no checking whether you are Ukrainian or Russian in Ukraine, most of the people are from mixed marriages between Ukrainian, Polish, Russian and so on. There are plenty of russian-speaking people, who are from east and south of the country in both parliament and Cabinet of Ministers. Previous president is on trial for treason - why it’s a bad thing in itself? The guy was a war hawk, actually. It’s actually president, not prime minister, you don’t even understand how government work in Ukraine There were no points about “minority rights” in ceasefire agreement. Are you just some British dude, who likes Russia Today? Or Polish, due to the very niche story about transit? You are arguing that war in Ukraine is fine, because Ukrainians are bad people, amazing. Really hope to meet you someday.
artem247 5y ago
-banned ethnic Russians from position of power??? This is so laughable for anyone from Ukraine. President of Ukraine is a Russian-speaking Jew. There is no checking whether you are Ukrainian or Russian in Ukraine, most of the people are from mixed marriages between Ukrainian, Polish, Russian and so on. There are plenty of russian-speaking people, who are from east and south of the country in both parliament and Cabinet of Ministers. Previous president is on trial for treason - why it’s a bad thing in itself? The guy was a war hawk, actually. It’s actually president, not prime minister, you don’t even understand how government work in Ukraine There were no points about “minority rights” in ceasefire agreement. Are you just some British dude, who likes Russia Today? Or Polish, due to the very niche story about transit? You are arguing that war in Ukraine is fine, because Ukrainians are bad people, amazing. Really hope to meet you someday.

alkonaut 5y ago

The 5k troop movement is suspicious when it happens right after Russia shifts 200k+ troops to create the threat the 5k troops were a response to? Whether or not the US “wants” to be busy seems irrelevant given the timeline.