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The US desperately, desperately needs a way to distract the world's attention when China annexes Taiwan and gets away with it. They need answers when people as

The US desperately, desperately needs a way to distract the world's attention when China annexes Taiwan and gets away with it. They need answers when people ask "what were you doing?" and "why did you let this happen?" A war with Russia fits the bill.

krapp 5y ago
> They need answers when people ask "what were you doing?" and "why did you let this happen?" Americans aren't going to ask those questions - Americans rarely if ever ask those questions about terrible things their government lets happen (or instigates) on their own soil, and when they do, the US never sees serious consequences. The rest of the world can ask that question, but Americans don't care about that at all. They just had a populist revolution where they tried to burn every bridge and treaty they had with their allies and retreat from the world stage entirely. That "America first, America best" attitude hasn't gone away just because a Democrat is currently in charge. Letting China annex Taiwan would absolutely be something the US government could weather, easily. >A war with Russia fits the bill. No it doesn't. People aren't goldfish - even if the US and Russia go to war, everyone is going to notice China annexing Taiwan. Media is still going to report on it. Governments are still going to react to it.
- octoberfranklin 5y ago
  - krapp 5y ago
    Well, yes. People aren't perfectly and universally stupid. Human beings, both at the individual and systemic level, are complex and driven by multiple sometimes contradictory interests and factors. It's entirely possible to be stupid about one thing, and not stupid about another - "stupid" being a subjective and contextually sensitive term in and of itself. But it's also the year of our Lord 2022, and instantaneous decentralized global communication and 24 hour news is a thing. Fighting one war to distract from another wouldn't have worked in the days of fully state controlled media during World War 2, how could it possibly work now, or in the near future? I don't know what point, exactly, you're trying to make here.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
techdragon 5y ago
This is a scenario I’ve pondered. Not as an excuse for the USA, but as a sure what if? Say Russia decides their new hypersonic system, that new nuclear torpedo, and their newest tanks are ready, and they decide the odds of WW3 are in their favour, and they annex the entire Ukraine, or the unrest in Kazakstan turns into an occupation and pseudo-annexation with the government taking orders from Russia in order to keep Russian troops maintains order, betting the USA/NATO won’t pull the trigger. Ok, so this probably provokes a reaction, and simultaneously emboldens China, making the move immediately doesn’t make sense but it’s likely to encourage them to begin a buildup. If “full out” fighting begins in the former Soviet states does this represent the opportunity to launch a flash invasion? What tools do China have to rapidly deploy their forces? Do they need to soften up the entire island or can they pull off “D-Day, Blitzkrieg remix, Feat. China” with the first major action being troops on the beach within the same hour they hit coastal defences? It’s an interesting scenario from a game theory and war planning standpoint, and one I suspect the USA is gaming out a lot lately.

krapp 5y ago

> They need answers when people ask "what were you doing?" and "why did you let this happen?" Americans aren't going to ask those questions - Americans rarely if ever ask those questions about terrible things their government lets happen (or instigates) on their own soil, and when they do, the US never sees serious consequences. The rest of the world can ask that question, but Americans don't care about that at all. They just had a populist revolution where they tried to burn every bridge and treaty they had with their allies and retreat from the world stage entirely. That "America first, America best" attitude hasn't gone away just because a Democrat is currently in charge. Letting China annex Taiwan would absolutely be something the US government could weather, easily. >A war with Russia fits the bill. No it doesn't. People aren't goldfish - even if the US and Russia go to war, everyone is going to notice China annexing Taiwan. Media is still going to report on it. Governments are still going to react to it.

octoberfranklin 5y ago
- krapp 5y ago
  Well, yes. People aren't perfectly and universally stupid. Human beings, both at the individual and systemic level, are complex and driven by multiple sometimes contradictory interests and factors. It's entirely possible to be stupid about one thing, and not stupid about another - "stupid" being a subjective and contextually sensitive term in and of itself. But it's also the year of our Lord 2022, and instantaneous decentralized global communication and 24 hour news is a thing. Fighting one war to distract from another wouldn't have worked in the days of fully state controlled media during World War 2, how could it possibly work now, or in the near future? I don't know what point, exactly, you're trying to make here.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

techdragon 5y ago

This is a scenario I’ve pondered. Not as an excuse for the USA, but as a sure what if? Say Russia decides their new hypersonic system, that new nuclear torpedo, and their newest tanks are ready, and they decide the odds of WW3 are in their favour, and they annex the entire Ukraine, or the unrest in Kazakstan turns into an occupation and pseudo-annexation with the government taking orders from Russia in order to keep Russian troops maintains order, betting the USA/NATO won’t pull the trigger. Ok, so this probably provokes a reaction, and simultaneously emboldens China, making the move immediately doesn’t make sense but it’s likely to encourage them to begin a buildup. If “full out” fighting begins in the former Soviet states does this represent the opportunity to launch a flash invasion? What tools do China have to rapidly deploy their forces? Do they need to soften up the entire island or can they pull off “D-Day, Blitzkrieg remix, Feat. China” with the first major action being troops on the beach within the same hour they hit coastal defences? It’s an interesting scenario from a game theory and war planning standpoint, and one I suspect the USA is gaming out a lot lately.