3 ms·

Ask HN: Do You Think the WW3 Is Coming?

6 points by cryptography 5y ago

King-Aaron 5y ago
Well of course, just not right now
neon_me 5y ago
Situation seems very tense in the eastern Europe - the whole maneuvers thing around the world even add more heat - looks terrible
- cryptography 5y ago
  Agree. Europe is the closest it's been to armed conflict in the past 30 years at least...
  - wizzzzzy 5y ago
karmakurtisaani 5y ago
Not really. At the moment the whole thing in Ukraine seems like a show of force for Russia. They can only lose by going to war. Of course the situation is flammable and a miscalculation could spark a conflict, but even that would be limited to Ukraine most likely. It would cost enormously to Russia, as Western powers would supply Ukraine until Putin would have to retreat and suffer a humiliating defeat. It's just very hard for me to see any other way this would play out.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- agent008t 5y ago
  What about the Georgia 2008 scenario? Also, what happens if at the same time as Russia moves in on Ukraine, China moves in on Taiwan?
  - karmakurtisaani 5y ago
    I think the risks for Russia are just too big. Now UK and the US are openly supplying Ukraine and it's not going to be a surprise to anyone like Georgia was (if my memory serves me right). I'm no expert, and of course it's impossible to know what's going on behind the scenes, so ... you know. Still, wars are really really expensive, and it's a long commitment. Putin would have to be really cornered to start anything crazy. Regarding China and Taiwan, I doubt China would risk an open war either for what would essentially only be national pride. Of course if there was a major war in Europe, in the scale were the US had to fully commit to, then maybe it would start to make sense. Still, expensive and risky as hell.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
simonblack 5y ago
Absolutely, but the main match will be between China and the US. I'm puzzled why the US is being sidetracked and is intent on fighting Russia in Europe and they are diverting resources away from the main game. The US is being forced by two reinforcing doctrines, the Wolfowitz Doctrine and the Thucydides Trap, to try to prevent China becoming the 'Number One' country in the next few years. China just has to keep growing its GDP as normal, at a higher rate than the US's GDP growth, to become 'Number One' very soon. It's an arithmetical certainty that China will come out on top. And that crossover-point is around 2025. The US needs to initiate a conflict about 5 years before the crossover-point to be certain of winning that war. China needs to hold off any war until after the crossover point, in effect to 'turn the other cheek' to US provocations while the China grows and the US declines in relative terms. Note that I said above that the US needs to initiate the conflict about 5 years before the crossover-point. That date is now two years in the past, the US should have started that war back in 2020. It's very likely that the US has 'missed the bus'. It might start the war now, but its chances of coming out on top now are very much diminished, due to those two years of lost opportunity. China does NOT want a war now, because a war now would only get in the way and would only slow down China's climb to the top. If China starts anything it would only be 3-5 years after the crossover-point, say after 2028. By then the US will be very much 'Number Two' on the ladder.

6 points by cryptography 5y ago

Well of course, just not right now

Situation seems very tense in the eastern Europe - the whole maneuvers thing around the world even add more heat - looks terrible

cryptography 5y ago
Agree. Europe is the closest it's been to armed conflict in the past 30 years at least...
- wizzzzzy 5y ago

karmakurtisaani 5y ago

Not really. At the moment the whole thing in Ukraine seems like a show of force for Russia. They can only lose by going to war. Of course the situation is flammable and a miscalculation could spark a conflict, but even that would be limited to Ukraine most likely. It would cost enormously to Russia, as Western powers would supply Ukraine until Putin would have to retreat and suffer a humiliating defeat. It's just very hard for me to see any other way this would play out.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
agent008t 5y ago
What about the Georgia 2008 scenario? Also, what happens if at the same time as Russia moves in on Ukraine, China moves in on Taiwan?
- karmakurtisaani 5y ago
  I think the risks for Russia are just too big. Now UK and the US are openly supplying Ukraine and it's not going to be a surprise to anyone like Georgia was (if my memory serves me right). I'm no expert, and of course it's impossible to know what's going on behind the scenes, so ... you know. Still, wars are really really expensive, and it's a long commitment. Putin would have to be really cornered to start anything crazy. Regarding China and Taiwan, I doubt China would risk an open war either for what would essentially only be national pride. Of course if there was a major war in Europe, in the scale were the US had to fully commit to, then maybe it would start to make sense. Still, expensive and risky as hell.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

simonblack 5y ago

Absolutely, but the main match will be between China and the US. I'm puzzled why the US is being sidetracked and is intent on fighting Russia in Europe and they are diverting resources away from the main game. The US is being forced by two reinforcing doctrines, the Wolfowitz Doctrine and the Thucydides Trap, to try to prevent China becoming the 'Number One' country in the next few years. China just has to keep growing its GDP as normal, at a higher rate than the US's GDP growth, to become 'Number One' very soon. It's an arithmetical certainty that China will come out on top. And that crossover-point is around 2025. The US needs to initiate a conflict about 5 years before the crossover-point to be certain of winning that war. China needs to hold off any war until after the crossover point, in effect to 'turn the other cheek' to US provocations while the China grows and the US declines in relative terms. Note that I said above that the US needs to initiate the conflict about 5 years before the crossover-point. That date is now two years in the past, the US should have started that war back in 2020. It's very likely that the US has 'missed the bus'. It might start the war now, but its chances of coming out on top now are very much diminished, due to those two years of lost opportunity. China does NOT want a war now, because a war now would only get in the way and would only slow down China's climb to the top. If China starts anything it would only be 3-5 years after the crossover-point, say after 2028. By then the US will be very much 'Number Two' on the ladder.