Your second point is probably the most critical for this article; all we can conclude (eventually) is an upper bound on the probability of abiogenesis for a cer

Your second point is probably the most critical for this article; all we can conclude (eventually) is an upper bound on the probability of abiogenesis for a certain volume, total mass, age, or number of stars. There is literally no lower bound; there may be uncountably many other inflationary universes without life.