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1) The US homicide/violent crime rate has been much higher than most/all of the rest of the developed world for many decades at least. 2) But since the early 1

by themgt 5y ago

1) The US homicide/violent crime rate has been much higher than most/all of the rest of the developed world for many decades at least. 2) But since the early 1990s violent crime had been consistently declining, which got to the point the decline was taken as almost a baked-in feature of national discourse. 3) Since a blip up in 2015 the homicide rate plateaued, and then jumped by an unprecedented 30% starting ~summer 2020. This sort of spike didn't happen in ~any other countries during this time. These are the (mostly) uncontested facts, but the debate seems very confused to me because people will point to one or another structural factor as "the reason" for so many American murders, without specifying whether they're referring to 1 or 3 or explaining how that accords with 2 also being true. My assumption is any holistic explanation that encompasses 1/2/3 will not be monocausal, but it's primarily the dramatic recent spike that's causing public attention and concern, and longstanding structural factors don't seem well-suited to explaining a huge overnight jump in murders after a reversion from a decades-long decline.

harshreality 5y ago
1) The US approach to multiculturalism, drugs, mental health, and social safety nets has been different from most of the rest of the developed world since the mid-20th century. 3) I wonder what happened culturally and economically from early to mid 2020. Quite mysterious. 2) Economic prosperity, increased surveillance, and simply learning that there are better ways to engage in the drug trade than murdering people over street corner turf, probably contributed to the decrease in violent crime. There was an article a while back about how gangs in LA had essentially transformed themselves in the past few decades—less standing out on street corners, more delivery/pick-up kinds of operations; I can't find a link right now. They still do some of the same stuff, but there's less of it. Also, if you buy the environmental lead explanation or abortion explanation, those are available too.
muzika 5y ago
2020 was when the “defund the police” movement has started in the US.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  That isn't the cause of the increased homicide rate. The homicide rate will drop as we finally start coming out of the pandemic and it becomes endemic and less deadly. People were cooped up too long. With all the mental health issues in the US and lack of help with that it was bound to happen with all the stress.

by themgt 5y ago

harshreality 5y ago

1) The US approach to multiculturalism, drugs, mental health, and social safety nets has been different from most of the rest of the developed world since the mid-20th century. 3) I wonder what happened culturally and economically from early to mid 2020. Quite mysterious. 2) Economic prosperity, increased surveillance, and simply learning that there are better ways to engage in the drug trade than murdering people over street corner turf, probably contributed to the decrease in violent crime. There was an article a while back about how gangs in LA had essentially transformed themselves in the past few decades—less standing out on street corners, more delivery/pick-up kinds of operations; I can't find a link right now. They still do some of the same stuff, but there's less of it. Also, if you buy the environmental lead explanation or abortion explanation, those are available too.

muzika 5y ago

2020 was when the “defund the police” movement has started in the US.

stjohnswarts 5y ago
That isn't the cause of the increased homicide rate. The homicide rate will drop as we finally start coming out of the pandemic and it becomes endemic and less deadly. People were cooped up too long. With all the mental health issues in the US and lack of help with that it was bound to happen with all the stress.