I find it hard to believe that in most scenarios an ebike is going to replace these trips, as weather, cargo capacity and logistics have vastly different impact

I find it hard to believe that in most scenarios an ebike is going to replace these trips, as weather, cargo capacity and logistics have vastly different impacts. I see much bigger application for people who already ride a bike, and more improtantly have a "bike mentality", being able to extend their range and potential use-cases. This is an important market, but much, much smaller than short car journeys.